Month: February 2019

Tennis

ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions Continued

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

25-20 on tennis in 2019 down 9.04 units

Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Tsonga Parlay risking 7 units to win 5.24 units. Medvedev won Sophia last week, while only dropping one set in the tournament. Chardy was in-form when he lost to the Russian in straight sets at ATP London in 2018. Now it is Medvedev who is in-form. Medvedev has eaten players with big serves, like Chardy, alive of late. Daniil Medvedev struggles against players that can out-rally and out-return him.. Chardy is not that player.

Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Damir Dzumhur. Dzumhur has no form at the moment, but he does lead the H2H 2-1. Damir hasn’t won a match this season. Stefanos has won against Roger Federer this season. Tsitsipas lost to the in-form Monfils in a close straight set match last week. The Greek has struggled to convert break points against Dzumhur in the past, but today is the best chance he will get to capitalize on some break points against Dzumhur.

Tsonga plays Thomas Fabbiano in the first round. Tsonga won this tournament in 2017. Also, Tsonga won in Montpellier last week. That is a great result considering Montpellier is where the Frenchman got hurt last season. As long as Tsonga is not too tired from playing 5 matches last week, he will win this one with the kind of form he is in.

Soccer

Champions League – Real Madrid at Ajax and Tottenham at Dortmund

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

14-14-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 16.78 units

Real Madrid at -103 for 12 units. Ajax has lost two of their last 3 games in the Eredivisie. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have won 6 of 7 in all comps. The one they didn’t win was a draw against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. Real Madrid have won this tournament 4 of the past 5 years and have made 16 straight round of 16s. This is Ajax’s first round of 16 appearance in 13 years.

Gareth Bale now has 100 goals for Real, but his backup, Vinicius Junior, might be the better attacking option nowadays. Madrid should win the midfield-battle with Kroos, Modric, and Casemiro. Reguilon should start over Marcelo. Honestly, I was going to take the over as I see Real winning 3-1 or 2-1; however, the moneyline is better value. Real Madrid have the experience, the history, the Ballon d’Or winner, and are in-form.

Dortmund/Tottenham No Kane, Davies, Alli, or Danny Rose for Tottenham. Dortmund are winless in their last 3 games. Dortmund was up 3-0 on Hoffenheim late in the game, then they gave up 3 goals off of crosses. Tottenham can score off of crosses and set pieces with Eriksen and Llorente. One team is out-of-form and one team is missing key players. I want to bet the over, but I could see Mauricio Pochettino and Tottenham slowing the game down. Tottenham could get 1-0 type victory and attack more in the second leg once Kane and Alli are back. I could also see Dortmund scoring first and then trying to add to it and take advantage of Tottenham’s injuries. No Play.

Image: Reuters 

Basketball

College Basketball Tuesday – Blue Bloods and Steph Curry’s School

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

19-17-1 this season up 15.08 units

Let me start of by saying I hate Kyle Guy. I don’t like that his last name is Guy. I don’t like that he always balls out against my schools (VCU and UNC). I don’t like the way he yells; however, I do like that he won me money last night. Coby White is so fun to watch as a Tar Heel fan, but UVA’s defense coupled with Little and Johnson getting ankle injuries was too much to overcome. UNC’s main problem in the game was a lack of inside presence and perimeter defense. Roy has time to fix this.

Duke/Kentucky/Davidson Parlay risking 5 units to win 5.11 units. Can Rick Pitino take any credit for how well this Louisville team is playing? Dick Vitale seems to think Rick should get another coaching job…. Dick Vitale may want to die screaming on a different hill. Louisville does have some good wins this season, like against UNC, but Duke is a tough matchup for them. Jordan Nwora is great for the Cardinals, but Duke excels at taking away your best player.

Lost in all the Zion talk, is how good of a job Coach K has done in handling this team. Duke out-coaches and out-athletes Louisville tonight. Duke holds opponents to under 30% shooting from the field. Louisville holds opponents to a lot higher number of 41.3% shooting from the field. That stat embodies the difference between these two teams.

Tremont Waters has been going off for LSU and Will Wade this season. Calipari recruited Waters, but he chose Georgetown and then switched to LSU. The Tigers have been an offensive machine in the last few weeks; however, Kentucky has the defense to slow them down enough for the win. PJ Washington has been dominate for Kentucky of late and I expect that to continue tonight. I hate that I think Duke and Kentucky are the two best teams in basketball. One of them will win the Championship for sure. (Jinx has been activated).

Davidson is tied with VCU atop the A-10, but they are only 4-4 on the road this season. Fordham is last in the A-10. Donald Trump’s first university attended, Fordham, has one win in conference play, and that was against fellow bottom-dweller UMass. Jon Axel Gudmundsson put Davidson on his back in their close win against Umass. Davidson comes ready to play in this one and gets the win.

 

Tennis

ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-20 on tennis in 2019 down 10.21 units

Denis Shapovalov ML/Milos Raonic -3 Parlay risking 7 units to win 6.41 units. Franco Skugor does have a strong serve, but the Croatian should not be too much of a challenge for Shapovalov. The Canadian has some points to defend at Delray soon, so getting some wins in his debut at Rotterdam would be good for the confidence.

Milos Raonic goes up against an out-of-form Philipp Kohlschreiber. This is Raonic’s first match since losing in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open. Raonic made the semifinal here in his only other appearance in 2015. Raonic did not drop a set to Kohlschreiber in their only other harcourt meeting at the 2015 Australian Open. Fognini is the only top-ranked opponent the German has beat this year. We all know how up and down Fognini can be. Kohlschreiber’s first serve percentage has been far too low for my liking this season. That will hurt him today against a player of Raonic’s caliber.

Soccer

Champions League – PSG at Manchester United and Porto at Roma

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

13-13-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 10.08 units

Well since I last wrote about soccer, Manchester City beat Chelsea 6-0, Real Madrid beat Atletico 3-1, Sevilla came back from a red card 2-0 deficit to tie Eibar, Barcelona tied Bilbao 0-0, Tottenham beat Leicester 3-1, and Dortmund blew a 3-0 lead to tie Hoffenheim 3-3. The Dortmund loss is the most shocking. I would be up about 5 units if they won that game; however, Reus and Delaney’s absences were felt. Once the game started to slip away, Reus could have been used to add some leadership and steady the game. Reus and Kane will be out for Tottenham/Dortmund tomorrow.

Manchester United +0 at -161 for 10 units. No Cavani or Neymar for PSG. Manchester United haven’t lost at home under caretaker boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær. Pogba should be able to dominate the midfield. Kylian Mbappe is amazing, but the twenty-year-old-World-Cup-winner may have too much of a burden in this one without Cavani or Neymar. Rashford rested over the weekend, so he should come out firing. Di Maria going up against his old club here. Draxler, Di Maria, and Mbappe are not a bad front 3, but Neymar and Cavani are World Class. Manchester United has the fitter, more in-form team, and they are at home. Not going to overthink this one.

Roma at +110 for 3 units. Dzeko will step up in this big game. Porto dominated their weak group, but playing at Roma will be the toughest opponent they have played in a while. Roma only lost one game at home in the group stage and that was to Real Madrid. El Shaarawy and Dzeko both scored in Roma’s 3-0 win against Chievo over the weekend. They tuned up well for this match and I expect them to get the win in Rome.

 

 

 

 

Basketball

College Basketball – Virginia at North Carolina

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

18-17-1 this season up 11.38 units

Virginia -1 at -108 for 4 units. North Carolina is on a solid win streak, but they have not played the best ACC schools during that streak. Miami, VT, and NC State have been stumbling of late. Coby White is going to have play a great game if UNC wants to win. That is a tall task for a freshman against UVA’s great defense.

UVA has to slow the game down and not turn the ball over. Sounds easy, but it is hard vs the Tar Heels. De’Andre Hunter is a tough guard for any team that doesn’t have Zion Williamson. Hunter will have a solid game. Virginia’s 3-point defense will be a key also. If UVA wasn’t coming off a tough loss to Duke 48 hours ago they would be more heavily favored. The step up in competition, coupled with UVA’s ability to slow the game down effectively, make life difficult for UNC tonight.

MMA

UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Preview – Lando Vannata Gets Back to Winning

Leave a comment

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

6-1 in 2019 up 8.52 units

Lot of plays on heavy favorites tonight. I usually like betting underdogs with value in the UFC, but this seems like an “easy” card to read for the favorites. Not going to overthink it.

Montana De La Rosa at -243 for 3 units. The Fort Worth native, Montana De La Rosa, has won her last 3 fights all by submissions. Her opponent, Nadia “187” Kassem has only 1 UFC win in her career and it was an unanimous decision against the struggling Alex Chambers. Not saying Alex Chambers is struggling to take away from Kassem, just a fact. De La Rosa’s superior experience, ground game, and grappling get her the win.

Lando Vannata at -346 for 10 units. First of all his name is Lando. That’s a plus from the start, shoutout Donald Glover. Vannata is a purple belt in Jiu Jitsu and is trained by Greg Jackson. Jackson has trained Bones Jones, BJ Penn, Holly Holm, and many others. He’s legit. Lando’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance and he drew two and lost two of those 4 fights. He’s hungry for a win. Marcos Mariano is making his lightweight debut tonight, partly because he is Anderson Silva’s friend. ”Groovy” Vannatta is an exciting fighter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets performance of the night.

Vannata/Rosa under 1.5 rounds for 2 units. If Vannata wins (I think he will), it will most likely be by a TKO or submission. I expect the more experienced Vannata to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses early.

Robert Whittaker at -229 for 4 units. Whittaker is a Black belt in Hapkido,
a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hapkido is a badass form of self defense that involves locking people’s joints. The guy is a damn savage. His nickname is “the Reaper” for Christ’s sake. Whittaker hasn’t lost a fight since February of 2014. Kelvin Gastelum does have the small Jiu-Jitsu advantage, but that is where it ends for me. Kelvin doesn’t have the length, experience, or takedown defense to keep up with Whittaker IMO. Gastelum won the Ultimate Fighter 17, but he doesn’t have much of a chance tonight.

 

Basketball

21 of the Top 25 Teams Play on this Massive College Saturday

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

14-16-1 this season up 0.04 units

Let me start of by saying the Harvard/Columbia triple overtime game last night was awesome. Columbia made a 3 as time expired to send it to overtime. Then Bryce Aiken did a Marcus Paige impression and drilled a double pump 3 to go the second overtime. Aiken finished with a career-high 44 points and a bloody knee. The Ivy league does the “cool” back 2 back thing so both teams play again today. Wild.

Clemson -2 for 5 units. VT is down to a 6 man team. They are running on fumes. Clemson blows them out in the second half. Sorry Hokies.

St. Bonaventure +2.5 for 1 unit. VCU struggles on the road. De’Riante Jenkins seemed to turn it up another level for VCU in the second half of their game vs GW on Wednesday. Jenkins is the best recruit VCU ever signed, so it is nice to see him start stepping up. This game can go either way, take the points.

Villanova +2 for 2 units. Markus Howard for Marquette and Phil Booth for Nova are the two leading candidates for the 2020 election. Nah just playing. It’s Big East player of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised at this rate if anybody runs for President. Marquette lost by 1 to St. Johns last time out. Howard played poorly in that one. Villanova know how to win close games and are the hotter team.

Gonzaga -17 for 3 units. I’m 3-1 on Gonzaga bets this year. St. Mary’s doesn’t have the athleticism they have had in past years. Gonzaga’s depth of talent will show up in the second half as they pull away for the 21 point win.

Florida State -2 for 3 units. Mfiondu Kabengele, Terance Mann, and Phil Cofer will do enough at home to beat Louisville. FSU has won 4 in a row in the ACC, that continues today.

Tennis

ATP Open Sud de France – Semifinals

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-19 on tennis in 2019 down 4.21 units

Tomas Berdych at -180 for 6 units. Well, Berdych gave up a set and a break advantage to blow my -3 bet on him yesterday. He is in such good form though, I just can’t quit him. Berdych just lost his concentration at some weird times. He won’t make the same mistakes today. Pierre Hughes Herbert lost to Berdych 6-2, 6-4 when they met in Doha a few weeks ago. Berdych is still unbeaten in this tournament in his career (2nd appearance). He should be favored by at least -210. The line will move in that direction.

Soccer

Soccer Saturday – Ole Gunnar Solskjær Gets Another Win, Liverpool Retakes 1st Place, The Madrid Derby Takes Place, and Dortmund Keeps Dominating Germany

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

10-11-4 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.04 units

Pushed my last 3 big soccer plays. Gotta turn it around. Big card today.

Manchester United at -166 for 7 units. Fulham didn’t have a shot on target in their last game against Crystal Palace. Fulham have conceded 2 or more goals in their last 5 premier league matches. Manchester United haven’t lost since Ole Gunnar Solskjær was appointed caretaker. In Rashford I trust.

West Ham/Crystal Palace over 2 at -211 for 3 units. Felipe Anderson and Zaha will see that this pushes at the very least. If Anderson keeps playing like he has this calendar year, he will be on the Brazilian national team soon…

Real Madrid/Atletico Madrid over 2 at -176 for 3 units. Benzema has 6 goals and an assists in his last 6 matches. Griezmann is the same scoring machine this season that he has been for the past few years. Only 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two has gone over this number, but I like this spot today. If Marcelo starts, I like this bet even more. Marcelo’s offense doesn’t make up for his lack of effort on defense anymore. There have been over 6 yellow cards a game in the last 6 meeting between these two. That kind of physical game means free-kicks and a pk hopefully. I want to bet on Real, but I don’t like Ronaldo and he used to play for them so I am going with the over.

Eintracht Frankfurt +1 at -190 for 4 units. I know I’m down a lot in soccer, which my bank account and followers hate, but Leipzig and Frankfurt have been keeping me afloat. Now they play each other. Leipzig have not beat Frankfurt by 2 or more since January of 2017. Luka Jovic leads the Bundesliga with 14 goals for Frankfurt. If Luke Jovic doesn’t play. Stay away. 

Dortmund at -137 for 2 units. Dortmund haven’t lost in their last 10 home games. Hoffenheim hasn’t beat a top team in a while either. Dortmund can push their lead over Bayern to 10 points with a win.

Parlay all these plus PSG and Liverpool for 1.1 units to win 15.63 units. Liverpool and PSG are both favored by 2 goals. They won’t be the ones to lose this parlay. Feeling lucky. It’s not called gambling for nothing.

Photo Source: Getty Images