Month: February 2019

Basketball

College Basketball Thursday Preview – Lot of Home Underdogs

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

20-21-1 this season down 2.66 units

61 college basketball games tonight and 25 of them feature home underdogs. Lot of spots to take advantage of. Here are my favorites:

Old Dominion/Murray State Parlay at +115 for 3 units. Going against two home dogs here. ODU has two great guards in B.J. Stith and Ahmad Carver. Texas San Antonio has lost two games in a row. Old Dominion has won 6 in a row. A win would clinch first place in C-USA, giving ODU its first regular-season league title since 2010. The Monarchs gave up a 17-point lead in the final 4 minutes of the game in a loss to UTSA earlier this season. They won’t let that happen again.

If you haven’t seen Ja Morant play this season. He is super-athletic. I like Ja because he has a personality unlike a lot of college basketball players. I don’t think it is the players fault a lot of the time… growing up in an age where everything you do wrong is on the internet, sometimes it is better to be vanilla until you get paid. Anyway, there is a reason he is going to be a top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Morant is putting up 24.4 points, 10.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds a game. Murray State has won 7 in a row. They are 14-2 in conference. Morehead State is 7-9 in conference play. Morehead State has not beat a team the caliber of Murray State in a while and they won’t tonight.

UAB +1 for 2 units.

Towson +2.5 for 2 units. Two home dogs here. William & Mary have won 3 in a row. Now the Tribe travel to Towson. 2 of those 3 William and Mary wins were against bottom of the CAA teams (Elon and UNCW). Towson has played well at home this season. Value here. Plus, the ESPN matchup predictor says Towson is the favorite and it has never been wrong. UAB just beat Western Kentucky by 8 two games ago. Now they are home and an underdog? I’ll bite.

Gonzaga -22 for 2 units. Pacific can’t score. That is all.

 

Hockey

Hockey Szn is Back

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45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

14-12 on Hockey this season down 0.56 units. 

Shakhtar Soligorsk -3 at -130 for 4 units. Belarus Hockey today. Soligorsk have won their last 6 over Belarus U20 by 3 or more. More of the same today. That is all.

Soccer

Copa Del Ray Semifinals – El Clásico – Barcelona at Real Madrid

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 17.56 units

Barcelona at +142 for 7 units.

Barcelona to advance at -131 for 9 units. One team has Messi and one doesn’t. Real Madrid tied the first leg at Camp Nou 1-1, but Messi didn’t start. Messi started against Sevilla this past weekend… Here is a video of Messi’s highlights in that game. I’m convinced Tommy Wiseau, Messi, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are from different planets.

 

Speaking of form, Real Madrid are in solid form. They have won 11 and lost 3 this calendar year. Casemiro, Kroos, and Modric are still one of the best midfields in the World. There are a couple reasons I don’t like Madrid today: Ajax were able to press Real Madrid to death in the first half of their Champions League game. Ajax had nothing but an offsides goal and a strike that went off the post to show for it though. If Real are that sloppy and unable to play out of the back against Barca, buenas noches. Caravajal was especially poor in that game in defense. If Marcelo starts over Reguilon, Messi is going to feast. Secondly, Messi and Suarez found their form in their last game vs Sevilla. Suarez has been in a bit of a rut away from home (hasn’t scored in Champions league away since Obama was President), but that is why that late goal vs Sevilla was big for him. Vinicius Junior will have his moments, Benzema is clincal, and Varane/Ramos can thwart most attacks away; however, Barcelona’s ability to attack out-wide and Messi will see them through.

Messi Stats vs Madrid: 39 games 26 goals 14 assists

 

Tennis

Dubai Tennis Championships Round of 16

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-22 on tennis in 2019 down 17.19 units

Nishikori/Hurkacz under 22 at -143 for 7 units. Hurkacz does have a strong serve, but Nishikori has a solid return game. Hubert Hurkacz is only a few months removed from his first ATP main draw win. He struggles against top competition and that was shown in his recent 6-4, 6-2 loss to Tsitsipas. Nishikori has made the quarterfinals in every tournament he has entered this year. Kei will be better at converting/defending break points. That will be the difference in this over/under.

Soccer

What is Going on at Chelsea FC? + Monday Bundesliga Action

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If you missed the EFL Carabao Cup, don’t feel too bad for missing the first 2 hours. It got real exciting after that though. Chelsea’s manager Sarri tried to take off Kepa Arrizabalaga right before Pks. Kepa was simply like nah fam I’m good. Willy Caballero was the keeper Sarri wanted to come on for penalties. Caballero used to play for Manchester City, so he knows some of their penalty tendencies presumably. Also, Caballero saved penalties for City to win this very tournament in 2016. Kepa is one of the most expensive keepers in the World. Keepers of his quality don’t grow on trees, but I have never seen a player just refuse a manager. Kepa didn’t save this pk after refusing to go off… Aguero knows he got lucky. Manchester City win the trophy. I was actually cheering for the underdog Chelsea in this one… Oh Chelsea also have an incoming transfer ban on the way for “international transfer of minors”. Fun times at Chelsea.

Onto today’s match:

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-22-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 12.56 units

Red Bull Leipzig at -123 for 5 units. Leipzig’s defense is too good for Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim scored 3 goals in the last 15 minutes against Dortmund. Leipzig are well-equipped to defend against Hoffenheim’s long balls and crosses that haunted Dortmund. Hoffenheim do score a large portion of their goals off of those type of plays. Leipzig have won 4 in a row (3 clean sheets in that span). Leipzig have won 7 games at home this Bundesliga season, scoring first in all them janks. Poulsen, Werner, and Sabitzer have 26 of Leipzig’s 41 goals on the season. Poulsen has scored twice in each of the last 4 Bundesliga games he scored in. Hoffenheim are a solid away team, but they just don’t matchup well with Leipzig.

Tennis

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Preview and Predictions

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The big news in Dubai is Federer playing for the first time since Melbourne. Roger Federer is the #2 seed behind #1 Kei Nishikori. Federer has won in Dubai 7 times. This is Nishikori’s debut. Nishikori usually plays in Mexico this time of year. There are more exciting first round matchups than usual in Dubai this year:

Benoit Paire faces off against Nishikori. Paire has never lost on this surface outside to Nishikori; however, Nishikori has won the past 3 H2Hs. Paire has played here before, Nishikori hasn’t. Makes things interesting.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matthew Ebden makes for an intriguing matchup because Stefanos just won the title in Marseilles. Dubai is 3,000 miles away. Stefanos has to be tired you’d think. He could withdraw..

Marin Cilic is the #3 seed and faces off against the in-form Gael Monfils. La Monf is 3-0 against Cilic in his career and just won at Rotterdam. Cilic hasn’t played since the Australian Open. Cilic should not be the favorite…

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

26-21 on tennis in 2019 down 16.16 units

Gael Monfils at -103 for 4 units. La Monf has been awesome this year. He is slowly making me a fan. Monfils is 3-0 against Marin Cilic in his career, as mentioned above. Cilic has not played in a tournament in a month. Monfils won a tournament last week. Value play on the unseeded player vs the #3 seed.

Roger Federer -1.5 sets at -236 for 5 units. Philipp Kohlschreiber is 0-13 against Roger all time. Federer has won the past two meetings on this surface in straight sets. I would be a little worried about Federer’s long layoff, but Kohlschreiber has been off his game this year. Federer continues his dominance over another opponent. Yawn.

Football

Robert Kraft – Prostitution Sting

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Patriots Owner Robert Kraft has been charged with soliciting prostitution through a Florida Day Spa. Day Spa. Day. D-A-I-Y-E. Okay?Image result for day spa zoolander gif

The 8-month investigation has garnered charges against over 100 different men and women. The big one is Robert Kraft. Sex slavery is a terrible thing to still be happening in 2019 America. How would building a wall stop Hua Zhang from importing prostitutes for Robert Kraft to use Donald? is a question I’d like to ask Trump. They are unwilling illegal immigrants.

TC Palm reports “the NFL owner was charged with paying for sexual services”. I don’t think this is enough to force Kraft to sell his beloved New England Revolution Patriots franchise, but I’ll let the NFL “can’t decide what is right and wrong unless there is a video” morality police decide on that one.

The TC Palm went on to say: “The owner of that spa, Hua Zhang, 58, of Winter Garden, was arrested and charged with deriving support from the proceeds of prostitution, keeping and frequenting a house of prostitution and 26 counts of procuring for prostitution.

Martin County Sheriff William Snyder believe women in the spas were supplied by human traffickers with ties to China and New York.

Millions began to be seized and about 300 arrest warrants were issued this week in connection with the 10 spas.”

Cue the deflated balls jokes…

Soccer

Europa League Second Leg Predictions

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.59 units

Not losing 3 days in a row. I won’t have it. All 3 of these teams should be more heavily favored IMO.

Frankfurt -1 at +189 for 3 units.

Frankfurt +0 at -212 for 5 units. Frankfurt have drawn 5 matches in a row against solid competition. Frankfurt were up a man almost all of last game against Shakthar and only pulled out the draw. Frankfurt did give up a pk. The game will play out differently in Germany. Luke Jovic and Sebastien Haller should do enough to secure the win for Frankfurt. I like the -1 because if Frankfurt gets up, Shakhtar will send more men forward, leading to a possible 2 or 3 goal win for the Germans.

Real Betis at -169 for 6 units. Betis dominated the first leg away, but only tied the game 3-3. Rennes looked poor in their only game since then. Betis is the better team and that should show up in Sevilla tonight. Giovani Lo Celso has 11 goals this season for Betis and the “Mexican Messi” Lainez has been coming into form.

Bayern Leverkusen at -234 for 5 units. Leverkusen have only lost 3 matches since the beginning of December. ‘Die Werkself’ are in great attacking form. Krasnodar have lost the last 3 times they have traveled to Germany. Havertz, Wendell, Brandt, Volland, and Bailey will be too much offense for Krasnodar.

Basketball

UNC/Duke

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

20-20-1 this season up 0.34 units

St Bonaventure/NC State/Ohio State/Auburn/Duke Parlay risking 3 units to win 4.55 units. Boston College doesn’t have the ball movement or consistent shooting to keep up with NC State. State has to win these games if they want to make the NCAA tournament. La Salle doesn’t have the depth to deal with the St. Bonaventure forwards. Northwestern has lost 6 in a row and seems to have given up on the season, Ohio State still has a lot to play for at home. Auburn’s high-powered offense goes up against Arkansas’s high-powered offense. Auburn has the defensive advantage. Arkansas did beat LSU on the road, but Auburn will be too much for them.

Duke has the better defense, but both teams have great offenses. If UNC makes their 3s, they will win. Coby White, Kenny Williams, Luke Maye, and Cam Johnson are all solid from deep. Duke has an advantage down low that they should take advantage of. The spread of Duke -9 seems way too high, but I still think they win. When Roy was asked what he thought about Obama being in attendance for this game… “I’ve said hello to famous people watching games at Duke. 2 Chainz was there last year. I had no idea who he was. He reached his hand down, shook my hand and said, “2 Chainz.” I missed a great opportunity to respond, “3 Ringz.”