ATP Estoril Round of 16

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

35-32 on tennis in 2019 down 37.93 units

Gael Monfils at -182 for 8 units. Monfils is playing in his first match after an injury absence. Monfils was sizzling before he got hurt. Opelka is a young Isner. Opelka has a great serve and impressed me against Pedro Sousa in round 1 (even though Sousa had a bum ankle supposedly). Monfils should have the advantage on this surface. I don’t think Monfils would rush back from injury with Roland Garros about a month away. Monfils is 15-3 in 2019. Gael’s ankle/achilles should be good to go and his trick shots/ability to return will be too much for Opelka. Opelka just won his first clay court tour match..


ATP Estoril and Munich Opening Rounds – French Open Less Than a Month Away

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

35-32 on tennis in 2019 down 33.64 units

Taylor Fritz at -103 for 3 units. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is only 19, but he does like the clay more than Fritz. Fritz won against Fokina in Madrid last year. The American is in better form than he was then. Nishikori and Djokovic are Fritz’s last two losses on clay. No shame in that. I liked how Fritz looked vs Schwartzman and Opelka on clay recently.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at -161 for 3 units. Schwartzman is usually more consistent than Paire. Schwartzman lost to in-form Dominic Thiem last week. This is Paire’s debut here. Schwartzman got a BYE here in Munich last year and lost in his opening match. Paire does have the serve and backhand, but I think Schwartzman can wear Paire down with baseline rallies.

Guido Pella/Nicholas Jarry par;ay at -185 for 3 units. Jarry will only lose if he has a hangover from doing so well in Barcelona. Jarry is a better clay player than Malek Jaziri. Pella will win.



ATP Monte Carlo Round of 16 Predictions

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-30 on tennis in 2019 down 35.90 units

Nadal -6.5 at -115 for 4 units. Nadal has won 11 sets in a row on clay. He might as well be made of clay. Nadal covered this number the last time he met Grigor Dimitrov in Monaco. Dimitrov plays better against Nadal on harcourt than he does on clay (most people do). Dimitrov is 1-11 against Nadal all time. Dimitrov has a shoulder injury of sorts and Nadal found his form quickly here beating Roberto Bautista-Agut 6-1,6-1.

Medvedev at +108 for 3 units. Medvedev has won all 3 meetings against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Those were all on hardcourts, this is on clay. Medvedev called Stefanos “a small kid who doesn’t know how to fight” after their first meeting… Safe to say these two don’t like each other too much. Medvedev just dominated the in-form Radu Albot and Tsitsipas has a tendency to be broken on clay. Tsitsipas also has a tendency to be broken when playing Medvedev. Not a good combo. The Russian should be a slight favorite in my eyes, taking the value.

Alexander Zverev at -381 for 5 units. Fognini is not in-form this season. Rublev blew the match and couldn’t hit a winner after being up a set and a break on Fognini in the last round. Zverev is far superior when compared to Rublev and Fabio will have to play his best tennis of the year to win. Zverev beat FAA in straight sets in the last round.. Fognini lost to FAA in straight sets this year. Send it. I wouldn’t hate parlaying Zverev with both plays above separately… so I will.


NBA Playoffs Round 1

Bucks/Rockets parlay risking 5 units to win 2.35 units. Jazz don’t seem to have the playoff rhythm they had last season (I know it has only been one game). Houston’s ability to stop Mitchell showed up in Game 1 and I expect that to continue. Gilbert Arenas knows a lot about shooting. Pun intended. He had this to say about Utah’s defense on Harden –

Dumb as f**k… You giving a guy who leads the NBA in free throws made and taken a walk to the basket. What’s even dumber… he’s left-handed so that means his step-back that no one can stop… is going right. If you wanna minimize his game, push him to his left which is his strength. Dribbling with your strong and pulling up is not natural.

That will take away his step back, it takes away his pull-up, so he has to drive all the way, which u can load up. From that standpoint, he will euro, left/right getting to the middle. Or he will do a running floater off going left which is also unnatural.

Defenders… pushing a player to his weak hand is actually his strong hand for pull-ups/hizzy’s/crossovers and step-backs. His strong hand is his get to the basket hand. So in reality, if he can shoot the ball, you giving that player more options.

If he can’t shoot then pushing him to his weak hand is a great thing. Knowing he can’t pull-up too, you’re less likely to go for any fake.”

I would love for Gilbert to be on Players Only, but it seems they only allow boring players on that broadcast..

Bucks -15 for 2 units. Bucks won the first game by 35. Giannis dunked from just inside the free throw line. Guy is a freak. Andre Drummond waived off Antetokounmpo’s 3-point attempt when the Pistons were down 38. Antetokounmpo made the 3. Drummond has not earned the right to disrespect a future MVP like that. Pistons may or may not have Blake in this game, but even if they do.. I still like the Bucks to cover at home.

Also, Congrats to Denver for winning their first playoff game since April 30th, 2013. I love Jokic.

Masters Round 3 Predictions

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

6-3 in 2019 up 7.24 units

Tiger Woods roared into second place on Friday. Tiger got tripped by a security guard. Fire him.

Calm down, sir, this is Augusta National.

Tiger fought through a weather delay. Tiger don’t care. Woods shot a -4 on Friday.

Ian Poulter over Tiger Woods at +131 for 2 units.

Rory McIlroy over Marc Leishman at -178 for 7 units. Posting quick because I think the odds will change. Poulter has been playing great this week. His mistake free golf makes it a good bet. Rory will beat Leishman. Rory’s ability to drive the ball will show up today. If he can make his putts and hit fairways he will beat Leishman. I know that seems easy to say, but the Mark Titus said it best to win basketball games “you have to make shots”. Sorry for the sports crossover. If Rory outputts Leishman, this will win.

The Masters at Augusta – Round 2 Preview and Predictions – Will Jon Rahm Play Better Than Tiger Woods Again?

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

3-2 in 2019 up 1.92 units

7 Plays still pending. No Hole in one and no first time winner please. Also, Tiger don’t shoot a 68 or lower. Stay at 69 if anything. My Brooks Koepka as the top American is looking good right now as well.

Sergio Garcia avoided the +13 on the 15th-hole on Thursday this year, unlike last year. That is a Masters record for any hole. He hit the water 5 times. Just reminds me of me on much easier golf courses.

3 Balls – Group 28 – Jon Rahm at +130 for 2 units. Rahm had two bogeys in 4 holes on the front 9 that included a toss of the driver after a poor shot. He rallied nicely. He was even on par 5s on Thursday and finished -3 for the day. He shoots -2 or -3 on par 5s on Friday and wins the group as a result. Tiger’s ball striking was not perfect, which meant he had to make putts. He did not make the necessary putts and is 4 strokes back from the lead and 1 stroke behind Rahm. Woods wants those 7 foot misses on holes 5 and 6 back. Rahm seems to have figured out Augusta scoring under 70 in 4 straight rounds. I like him here again.

3 Balls – Group 24 – Adam Scott at +125 for 2 units. Hideki Matsuyama did not get the start he wanted. Adam Scott gained some confidence on the back 9 and that will carry into Friday. Hideki has to play aggressive to make the cut and that is always dangerous here. Scott’s GIR and ability to hit fairways wins this bet.

Brooks Koepka vs Paul Casey second round only at -177 for 7 units. Koepka shot a -6 on Thursday. Casey shot a +9. Paul Casey has never won a major. Koepka has won 3 in the past 2 years. Casey is 13 years older. Koepka had to sit out the 2018 Masters due to wrist surgery (from lifting too many weights prolly, wrist curls will get ya). Watching on tv put the proverbial fire in the belly of Koepka. Paul Casey double bogeyed the par 4 5th-hole that I talked about in my Masters preview yesterday. Koepka was -5 on the par 4s and 5s combined, while Casey went +7 on those holes. Koepka accurately drove the ball about 15 yards further than Casey on average. That may not continue, but if Koepka can keep putting (no pun intended) himself in better positions, this will win easy.

Bubba Watson vs Patrick Cantlay at -119 for 1 unit. Bubba is the man. He has the experience and the left-handedness.

The Masters Preview and Predictions

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

It’s finally here. The best golf tournament of the year. Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters. His estranged family will not be attending. Reed and his family have a more interesting, volatile story than even Aaron Rodgers does with his real and football family combined. Football is family. I miss football. Tears on the keyboard. I’ll dive into Reed’s family more after the Masters because there is sure to be another installment this weekend. Patrick Reed’s champions dinner menu has been one of the most anticipated menus in recent memory. Prolly cause he is doughy.

Here’s a fun game: Guess which foods Reed picked against which ones he was forced to put on the menu. Caesar/Wedge Salad. Prime Bone-in Cowboy Ribeye. Corn Creme Brulee. Mac and Cheese. Yes, Mac and Cheese is on the Masters Club Dinner menu. Creamed Spinach. Steamed Broccoli. Tiramisu. Vanilla Bean Creme Brulee. Reed likes his Creme that’s forsure. I am going to go out on a limb and say everything but the vegetables he decided.

Justin Rose is the world #1, but is not really that close to being the favorite. Rory Mcilroy is the favorite and rightfully so by my very average excel model. Rory leads the tour in strokes gained from Tee-to-green and strokes gained off-the-tee this year. He has been striking the ball incredibly well. Rory nor Rose has ever won this tournament however.

The 5th hole has seen the most changes since last season. The 5th hole is hard to fit spectators on as it is sandwiched between two beautiful par-3s. I don’t know if they added 40 yards and made a bigger tee-box to fit more spectators specifically, but it will certainly help in that aspect. It was the 6th hardest hole on the course during last year’s Masters. Now it will crack the top 5. You can’t hit one of these bunkers and expect to birdie anymore. They are too deep and the hole is too long. Tiger Woods even said “I think they’re unplayable to get the ball to the green” when talking about the bunkers. I am interested to see how the new green will play too. It is bigger with an added ridge. The 5th hole will get a lot of chatter on Thursday.

Onto the plays:

2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only at -105 for 4 units. Rahm played so well last year before his meltdown. I think he starts hot again. I like him on day 1 a lot more than Tiger. Tiger could finish better than him over the weekend, but I doubt even that. Rahm should be a lot more heavily favored against Tiger than a coin flip when you factor in health and recent performances here.

Matt Kuchar vs Ian Poulter first round only at -119 for 4 units. Kuchar has finshed in the top-5 3 of the past 7 years here. Poulter has 13 starts here, 2 top-10s, 1 missed cut, and has never made the top 5. Going with the player that plays the course better to get off to the hotter start.

Hideki Matsuyama vs Adam Scott first round only/Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only/Rory McIlroy over Cameron Smith first round only – Parlay risking 4 units to win 15.12 units. By my very average excel numbers Rory should be a 4.6/1 favorite. He is a 7/1 favorite. That is enough for me to like him over Cam Smith in the first round at least. Rory has been striking the ball far more consistently than Smith this year. Scott has 5 top 15 finishes in his last 8 Masters, but Matsuyama has finished in the top 20 in the last 4 Masters. Over their past 50 rounds, Deki ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Once again I am going with the better ball striker at the moment.

Masters First Time Winner – No at +350 for 3 units. I’ll take Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Vijay Singh, Adam Scott, Phil Michelson, Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Sergio Garcia, Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Kyle, Larry Mize, Jose Olazabal, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir, Ian Woosnam, and Danny Willett vs the field at these odds. Dustin Johnson and Rory are obviously the most likely to mess this bet up, but the “underdogs” are a fun play in this one.

Tiger Woods – Lowest Completed Round – Over 68½ Strokes at -110 for 4 units. Woods lowest round was a 69 last year and he was a DNP in 2016/17. Tiger has so many health concerns and wasn’t too far from getting cut last year. Even if he makes this cut, shooting a -4 in any round would be impressive to me. Tiger struggles on hole No.4 and hasn’t played well on it since 2005. Now that hole No.5 is tough too, that two-hole stretch could be the difference in this bet.

No Hole in One at +120 for 1 unit. It will happen on the 16th or 6th hole if it happens. There has been an ace or three each of the past 3 years. We are due for a drought. Shane Lowry, Davis Love III, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, and Charley Hoffman each have one hole-in-one on the 16th over the past 3 years. If one of them does it again, I will take it personally.

Yes Playoff at +350 for 1 unit. Why not? Let’s win a little bit and watch the rare Sudden Death playoff at a major that only the Masters can offer.

Jordan Spieth Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Justin Thomas Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Brooks Koepka Top American at +1150 for 1 unit. Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, and Rickie (Maybe Bubba) are the only 3 Americans I can see beating these 3. If Spieth can find his putting I like him a lot. Thomas is first in birdie % and first in scoring average this year. That’s enough for me to sprinkle a little on him to be the top American. Throwing in Brooks cause his girl is a smoke and good luck charm.

Image result for jena sims

MLB Friday

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

1-0 on MLB this season up 2.50 units 

Mariners at -129 for 4 units. Seattle has a few players that have hit Reynaldo Lopez, the pitcher for the White Sox today, well in the past. Nobody on the White Sox starting 9 has faced Seattle pitcher Yusei Kikuchi yet. Opponents are only hitting .200 against Kikuchi this season. Dee Gordon may be the best 9-hole hitter in baseball. Tim Beckham has been making solid contact so far this season for Seattle as well. Seattle should keep their home-run streak going in this one.

Red Sox at -121 for 3 units. J.D. Martinez plays against one his former teams today when the Red Sox visit the Diamondbacks. The Red Sox are 2-6 this season with all their games being played on the road. Manager Alex Cora said the attention to detail has not been there for the Red Sox this season. Jake Lamb is out for Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt got traded in the off-season. Arizona are hitting the ball well surprisingly with all their losses this off-season, but I like the Red Sox to get back to winning tonight. Both starting pitchers, Rick Porcello and Zack Godley struggled in their first start.

MLB Begins

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

The MLB should start their season when the NCAA tournament doesn’t have games… but they don’t and casual fans forget it starts every season. This season was “special” because Ichiro retired in Japan at around 5 AM EST to start the MLB season. Seems like that should have been a bigger deal, but Zion almost losing, Zion almost losing, and then Zion losing obviously overshadowed Ichiro’s retirement.

Braves at -120 for 3 units. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson have been one of the best hitting middle infields in this young season. Yu Darvish fade.