Month: August 2019

Football

College Football Has Begun

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71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units

Hand up, I had Bama and the under in the Championship. I lost both plays, but still had a good season. I can’t lose 3 bets in a row on college football right?

Wisconsin -10 at -110 for 5 units. Look it, This Jonathan Taylor guy is a beast. The Doak Walker award winner of last season gets to run behind another strong Wisconsin o-line. USF was one of the worst teams in the country last season against the run and they lost two of their best tacklers. Tackling matters in football. The Badgers passed on only 36.5% of plays last season. That’s third lowest out of the Power 5 schools. They will be looking for more balance this year… but JT is too damn good not to feed. The Badgers only had two passing plays over 36 yards last season. I think they get a long passing play tonight. The game could be close around halftime, but I expect the Badgers to wear down the USF defense in the second half and win by 14-17 points.

Tennis

US Open Continued

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

43-49 on tennis in 2019 down 42.98 units

Federer -7 at +105 for 4 units. Fed has been getting off to slow starts at the US Open. It makes sense because he has only played in one tournament since Wimbledon. The rust ends today. He came on strong towards the end of his last match against one of his practice partners Dzumhur. I expect that to carry over. I think this line should be -8.5 or -9. Send it.

Football

NFL Preseason Week 4 – Luck Retired – Elliot and Gordon Still Haven’t Been Paid

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

0-0 on the NFL this season

Going full degenerate and betting on the final preseason week. I know there is college football, but why bet on games that matter when you can bet on games that don’t (I know they matter to the people trying not to be cut).

Melvin Gordon and Zeke still haven’t reported to camp. They are sliding in fantasy drafts because of their lack of showing up. The NFL does need to change the rookie contract scale for runningbacks, 4/5 years is too long for a runningback to wait for his big payday. Jerry Jones should trade for Gordon and pay him 14 million a year and save a little money…

Andrew Luck retired and Indy fans booed him. Suck for Luck worked.. kinda. Luck is a smart man and if he wants to use his arm in 20 years, retiring was prolly the right move. He made over $70 million in his career, he should be good. He seems more fiscally responsible than Mike Tyson, Antoine Walker, 50 Cent, and others that have squandered their millions. I relate the Colts booing him to Toronto cheering for the KD injury. Fans do dumb shit out of raw emotion.

Vikings at -150 for 2 units. I listen to Pardon My Take. PFT loves Kyle Sloter, the backup’s backup QB for Minnesota. Sloter should get a lot of playing time tonight. He has thrown 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his preseason career. Will the Bills cut McCoy and save 6 million? Stay tuned. The Cowboys/Texans and others could use him. I know I know, I am good at this gambling thing, betting on the top sports’ podcasts satirical info is as insider as you can get.

Redskins at +210 for 1 unit. Washington is the biggest underdog on the day, so I am going to take them. “Trace” McSorley III doesn’t scare me in his homecoming game. Aaron Rader has more insight into the game if you want more info. But it’s preseason so just send it.

Just need one of these to win to be up on the year going into the season. Just looking for some good juju here…

Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Seahawks and Eagles. I am in 4 pools and chose each of them twice.

Tennis

US Open Thursday August 29th

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-48 on tennis in 2019 down 43.78 units

A lot of tennis to be played today with the rain yesterday. Multiple top seeds have already been knocked out like Thiem and Tsitsipas. This is still Djokovic’s tournament to lose in my mind..

Wawrinka at -248 for 7 units. Wawrinka is 5-0 against Jeremy Chardy in his career. Chardy has lost in this round in over half his appearances here at the US Open. In his first round match, Chardy was on the court for over 5 hours in his win against Hubert Hurkacz. Fitness could be a concern for the Frenchman. Stan won his most recent slam here in 2016. He likes this place. Wawrinka is far more consistent and should be closer to -400 IMO.

Nishioka at -222 for 2 units. Nishioka does have some fitness concerns, which is why this isn’t a higher unit play. Feliciano Lopez lost to Nishioka in straight sets in their only other meeting. Going with the left-handed Japanese man today.

Tennis

ATP Cincinnati – August 14th

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-47 on tennis in 2019 down 39.78 units

Tsitsipas/Wawrinka/Zverev Parlay risking 4 units to win 12.86 units. Struff beat Tsitsipas earlier this year. The Greek won’t want that to happen again. Neither of these players are playing their best tennis right now, but Tsitsipas is the better player. Struff has had a great 2019 but his standards, but has been slipping recently. I like Stefanos to do enough today against the strong Struff serve.

Wawrinka and Rublev meet today. Wawrinka leads the H2H 1-0, but that match was a couple years ago. Rublev has struggled since his back injury last year, but has turned it up lately. I just like Wawrinka’s ability to fight back. Wawrinka is 6-2 in the second round here. He lost in the second round to a Russian last week… I don’t think that’ll happen twice in a row.

Miomir Kecmanovic is in great form, and Zverev is not. Alexanders Zverev is great in Masters 1000 events, but he has never won a match in Cincy in 6 appearances here. He will get at least one win this time around.

 

Soccer

UEFA Super Cup – Chelsea Vs. Liverpool

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

36-31-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 8.41 units

Liverpool at -155 for 4 units. Liverpool are one of the best teams in the World. Chelsea are not. Chelsea started a guy named Tammy at striker in their 4-0 loss to Manchester United over the weekend. Sorry Tammy, you may be a star one day.. but not quite yet. Hazard is gone, Loftus-Cheek and CHO are hurt. Pulisic, Kante, and Barkley are not enough to beat Liverpool.  Chelsea’s manager, Frank Lampard, is trying to implement a pressing style that got caught on the counter attack too often against Man U. Salah, Mane, and others should get it done for Klopp’s side. Stephanie Frappart will make history as a female referee today. Yay diversity!

Baseball

MLB August 14th – Twins and Yankees

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

40-37 on MLB this season down 1.61 units

Yankees at -255 for 3 units. Little bit of reverse line movement here, but not enough to scare me off of the Yankees. New York has won 4 in a row. Gio Urshela had 3 hits yesterday. That DJ LeMahieu guy had a homer on the first pitch from Baltimore. Judge finally got a double and that may be all he needs to break out of his slump. Bundy has a 6.56 ERA over his last 3 starts for the O’s. Baltimore can clinch a 3rd straight losing season with a loss today…

Twins at +105 for 5 units. Kyle Gibson has won 2 of his last 3 starts for Minnesota. Gio Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 6.56 ERA in nine career starts against the Twins. Milwaukee’s bullpen has not been what it was last season. Minnesota are a half game ahead of the Indians in their division. The Brew Crew are 2 and half games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. Minnesota has the best BA and SLG in the MLB against lefties this season. Gio is a lefty. I like this spot today.

Baseball

MLB August 8th

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

40-35 on MLB this season up 6.39 units

Yankees -1.5/Braves -1.5 Parlay risking 3 units to win 6.01 units. Yankees have won 8 in a row. German is 5-0 for the Yankees since returning from injury. Pannone is 0-3 with an ERA over 8 in his 3 starts this season for Toronto. I like the Yankees to keep scoring today even with a depleted lineup (No Hicks, Stanton, Sanchez…) The Braves have hot bats scoring 23 runs over their past 2 games. Keuchel has 5 quality starts in his last 7 for Atlanta. Elieser Hernandez have up 5 earned runs in 3 innings to the Rays last time out. The Yankees and Braves should put up enough runs on the road to cover.

Tigers to score first at +105 for 5 units. Matthew Boyd did not get traded and is still Detroit’s Ace. If the Tigers can’t hit Jorge Lopez today. I quit them. Lopez is 1-7 this season overall and 0-3 all-time against the Tigers. Lopez is starting because of an injury to Danny Duffy. The Tigers, the worst team in baseball, are actually winning the season series against the Royals. I expect the the Tigers to score first with today’s starting pitchers. Boyd will get his strikeouts, here’s to hoping Lopez makes a mistake before him.

Baseball

MLB Sunday

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

38-33 on MLB this season up 0.49 units

Tampa Bay Rays at -171 for 7 units. Caleb Smith has been pitching well for the Marlins. He leads Miami in wins (7). Chirinos has pitched almost as well this season for the Rays. Austin Meadows just keeps hitting homers for the Rays. Tampa Bay had 4 homers yesterday.. Tampa Bay have won 5 in a row, but are only a half game up over the A’s in the Wild Card. The Marlins are 22 games back in the NL East..

Brewers at +129 for 1 unit. I don’t trust Yu Darvish.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ at +131 for 4 units. Kenta Maeda gave up 6 runs in his last start for the Dodgers, but that was in Colorado. Dodgers are going to give him some run support today.

New York Yankees -1½ at +170 for 4 units. Red Sox have lost 7 in a row. Yankees have won 4 in a row. DJ LeMahieu just keeps being the best hitter in baseball this season. Aaron Hicks and Edwin Encarnacion were hurt in this series and are out for this one, but that just gives us better odds. New York’s bats should be able to hit David Price. Price is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts. Happ is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox this season. I like New York’s lefty better. Don’t like taking home team runlines, but this is solid value.

Baseball

MLB August 2nd

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

37-32 on MLB this season up 0.89 units

ATLANTA BRAVES at -135 for 2 units.

NEW YORK YANKEES at -125 for 2 units.

Traveling today so no write-up.