2-1 on these parlays.. Let’s win another!
Colts/Rams/Valencia-Bilbao over 2/Liverpool/Juve/Bayern/Manchester City/TCU/Michigan State Parlay risking 2 units to win 16.43 units.
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9-8 on College Football in 2019 up 6.64 units
Penn State -6 at -115 for 6 units. Feed KJ Hamler. Maryland is 111th in tackles for loss allowed. Maryland’s o-line is bad, especially with all their injuries. Penn State won 38-3 last year with 15 tackles for loss and 5 sacks. Anthony McFarland is a stud running-back for the Terrapins.. If the Nittany Lions can contain him, they will cover easy.
Vanderbilt -7 at -110 for 3 units. Ke’Shawn Vaughn ran all over LSU, so I expect him to dominate the game against a Northern Illinois team that struggles against the run.
Kentucky +3 at -105 for 3 units. Joyner is out for South Carolina. Sawyer Smith, their backup QB, got hurt in the game last week and isn’t 100%. Kentucky hasn’t lost to South Carolina since 2013. The Cocks are 110th in the nation in turnover margin and Kentucky can force some turnovers. Give me the points!!
69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units
11-17 on the NFL this season down 13.09 units
Eagles +6 at -140 for 5 units. Public is on the Packers. Buying a point here because I think it will be a low-scoring game. Philadelphia has lost the last two weeks by a combined 7 points. Alshon Jeffrey is back and Wentz needs him (The above image shows a Nelson Agholor drop, on a crucial 3rd down, in the loss to the Lions). The Eagles had 8 dropped passes last week according to an AP article by Keith Jenkins and 5 according to PFF. I’m going to believe Pro Football Focus. Keith must be a Cowboys fan. Keith is a very Cowboys fan name. Are you a Cowboys fan, Keith? 5 dropped passes is still the most in a game this season.
Davante Adams hasn’t scored a touchdown this year, but he has had sex. He became a dad on September 20th. Green Bay is top-3 in sacks and interceptions.. that would be impressive, but they have played Mitch Trubisky, Joe Flaccid, and Kirk Can’t-Win-A-Game-Against-A-Team-With-A-Winning-Record. Wentz actually looks like a NFL QB. I’ve thrown tide pods into the wash harder than Mitch threw one of his touchdowns to Taylor Gabriel last week. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 28th, but they have played solid defenses and are 3-0. Only 1 team has started 1-3, like the Eagles are now, and won a Super Bowl (Tom Brady, BB, and Ty Law). I’ll take the points in a must-win game for the Eagles.
Eagles/Packers under 49 at -135 for 3 units. Public is on over and the Packers, so I am buying a point in the opposite direction for both. To Generalize, Green Bay and Philadelphia both have good defenses and average offenses through 3 weeks. In a GreenZone turnover I trust. Is the GreenZone still a thing? It was so dumb, but I loved it.
Saints won 33-27 with Teddy Two Gloves at QB. Deonte Harris’s punt return touchdown was the difference.
Seahawks:
DK Metcalf is the first Seattle player to ever start their career with 3 60+ yard receiving games. A lot of people thought Metcalf was simply a speedster like Darrius Heyward-Bey, but I think he is more than that. Carson seems to be the workhorse, but he is trying to fumble away his job. Seattle had 1 TFL and that was by Bobby Wagner. Seattle still struggles at pressuring the QB and the backfield, even with Clowney. Seattle needs to get better in the trenches.
Saints:
Kamara just ate up a lot of checkdowns. Kamara is so damn good. He is hard to bring down, slippery, strong, and balanced. Michael Thomas is not as good without Brees. The Saints haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since… Samaje Perine in 2017. Marshon Lattimore led the team in tackles and pass deflections. He is still a stud corner. The Saints have a solid defense, one of the best RB/WRs, and a great o-line. If I wasn’t a Panthers fan and all-in on Kyle Allen, I would predict New Orleans to win the division… but my bias is in the way..
Texans win 27-20.
Texans:
Hopkins has been the focus of defensives and rightly so. The Texans d-line and Houston tight ends were the stars of the show. The Texans had 5 sacks. Kenny Stills feels like he is stealing targets from Fuller, but doing well with them. Deshaun Watson is playing great this season. Texans play the Panthers this week.
Chargers:
Keenan Allen is averaging 14 targets a game and I think he has been a close-second to Julio Jones as the best wide out in the league. Ekeler and Jackson have looked great, but it appears Melvin Gordon is coming back next week. The Chargers just seem to be hurting themselves too much. Luckily they get the Dolphins this week.
Vikings win 34-14.
Raiders:
The Raiders are bad, but Tyell Williams and Darren Waller keep performing. Waller got the most balls by a tight end in Raiders history. Also, Waller has the most catches through the first 3 games in team history. I don’t think Gruden and Carr like each other. The Raiders could really use a dominant pass rusher like Mack… The Oakland defense is not good.
Vikings:
Kirk Cousins is now 22-5-1 when his team rushes for 100+ yards since 2015… so take the ball out of one of the highest paid players hands basically. Cousins does have the longest touchdown streak in the league going at 19 games. Diggs is rumored to have asked for a trade. Can you blame him? He only had 3 targets this week. Mattison looks like one of the best backup running-backs in football, but Dalvin Cook has been the best running-back in football. Cook already has more 100 yard rushing games this year than his first two seasons. Eric Wilson had two sacks and Harrison Smith got the interception for Minnesota. Vikings travel to Chicago this week.
Packers win 27-16.
Broncos:
Emmanuel Sanders is still the only player with a receiving touchdown for Denver this season. Freeman has over 50 rushing yards in the last 4 games. The Broncos pass rush is weirdly muted this season. Denver did not sack Rodgers. The Broncos are like the Redskins.. stuck in being below-average with some mismanagement problems.
Packers:
Aaron Jones got out-snapped heavily by Jamaal, but Jones still got the valuable goal-line work. Jaire Alexander has been a beast for Green Bay on defense. Darnell Savage got the interception. Blake Martinez led the team in tackles and had 2 tackles for loss. MVS had a career day. Rodgers is now 15-2 in games with 5+ pass attempts and 0 sacks taken. Davante Adams is still a stud, but hasn’t performed to his high standards this season… I expect him to. It isn’t fair the Packers have a great defense and Aaron Rodgers. You have to pick one..
Colts win 27-24.
Colts:
Hilton did all his work in the first half. He looks just as good as people thought he would be with Andrew Luck. Brissett looked great in this game. Marlon Mack looks like a legit workhouse back. Darius Leonard got concussed for the Colts and Anthony Walker stepped up. Clayton Geathers had a pick and a pass deflection too. If TY Hilton is out, I would bet against the Colts this week… oh wait they play the Raiders.. maybe not..
Falcons:
Matt Ryan passed Elway for completions, but Ryan already has 6 interceptions. He had 7 interceptions all of last year. Atlanta’s o-line is bad. Julio Jones looks like the best wideout in the league through 3 weeks. Austin Hooper looked great in this game. He is the first TE with two touchdowns in a game since Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons have to beat the Titans this week..
Lions win 27-24. Jamal Agnew’s kickoff return for a touchdown was the difference.
Eagles:
Eagles run defense looked solid, but the pass defense didn’t do enough. The Eagles had 5 drops in this game. The most for any team in any game this year. Mack Hollins is a solid deep threat that nobody is talking about. Nelson Agholor played well. Miles Sanders seems to have been promoted, but dances too much for my liking. Ertz is now 2nd all-time in catches for Philly. Wentz is clearly the best offensive player on the Eagles not named Ertz. If I were an Eagles fan, I would want them to run the ball less.. Eagles at Packers this week.
Lions:
Stafford didn’t get sacked for the second straight game.. first time since 2011 that has happened. Interestingly enough, the Lions are 3-0 for the first time since 2011. Stafford is 4-1 against the Eagles in his career now. The Lions o-line can pass block, but they can’t run block it seems. Hockenson has come back to Earth. Marvin Jones Jr had his first big game of the season. Darius Slay recovered a fumble and is still one of the best corners in the league.
Bills win 21-17.
Bills:
The Bills defense is real good. Jordan Poyer, Matt Milano, Micah Hyde, and Tre’Davious White all played great on Sunday. White had two interceptions and now has 8 in his career, the most for anyone from the 2017 draft (Jabrill Peppers, Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, and Jamal Adams draft). Frank Gore doesn’t age like Larry Fitzgerald and Tom Brady. Josh Allen has 200+ passing yards in 8 straight games, the first Bills player to do that since Jim Kelly in the 90s. Brown and Beasley seem to be Allen’s favorite targets.
Bengals:
Tyler Boyd has been eating targets. Joe Mixon still doesn’t have a rushing TD. The Bengals are the only team without 100 yards rushing in a game this season. John Ross couldn’t get his big play and lost a fumble. The Bengals defense is bad I think, but played better this week after the 1st quarter. Cincinnati’s offense had only one first half first down. Bengals are what they are with Andy Dalton.
