Hockey October 3rd

12-7-6 on Hockey this season up 13.16 units

Both my Finnish hockey bets pushed last time out. Up 13 units on the season, so I am not going to stop now. NHL starts tomorrow, but for now…. It is all Finland baby. Feel good about these today.

TPS at -103 for 5 units. TPS have not lost on the road this season. Assat has not won at home this season. TPS Turku average over 3 goals a game. Assat averages under 2. Also, Turku has a better defense.

KalPa -1 at +119 for 4 units. KooKoo have the worst defense in the league and have lost all 3 away games this season by 2 or more goals.

HIFK pk at -119 for 4 units. Helsinki have the best offense in the league so I will side with them here. HIFK are good value at this price even against a good Ilves team. HIFK have the top scorer in the league in Erik Thorell.

Champions League Soccer October 3rd

Aguero and David Silva got the goals to give Manchester City a much needed 3 points against Hoffenheim. Silva is a sneaky little guy. City are now second in the group behind Lyon, who they lost to. Lyon did well to come back and tie Shakhtar Donetsk after being down 2-0. Ajax are in fantastic form in their domestic league and this carried over as they tied Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena 1-1. Boateng is not a world class defender anymore. Hummels scored the goal on a quality header for Munich.

Juventus took care of business and outclassed Young Boys. Juve did not have Ronaldo, who was serving his red card suspension. Bonucci has this filthy long ball to Dybala. Dybala placed into the back of the net with a suave kind of calmness. Juventus have won 9 games to start this season, a club record.

Juve have not lost, Real Madrid lost again today. These two clubs will always be linked in my mind due to Ronaldo. CSKA Moscow was like, okay Real, you’re going not going to start Isco, Modric, Marcelo, Ramos, and Bale? We are going to beat you then and they did. Real Madrid and Manchester United are not living up to their club’s lofty history.

Manchester United put in another lackluster performance against Valencia. Eric Bailly had this terrible shot, which sums up United’s season nicely I think. Bailly is an interesting human. Here is a twitter thread of him doing ridiculous stuff. Worth the watch just for his interactions with Zlatan Ibrahimovic among a myriad of other things.

Benfica had not won on the road in a good while. They went up 2-0 on Athens, then Ruben Dias got a second yellow right before halftime. Athens scored 2 in a row to tie it, but Semedo did not let his team lose. Roma beat Plzen 5-0 and Dzeko got his second hat-trick against them in Rome in as many home matches.

34-24-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 23.06 units

Dortmund/Atletico Madrid Parlay at -150 for 4 units. Dortmund lost to Monaco 6-3 on aggregate last time these two met in this competition. The Germans will want revenge. Borussia have actually lost 4 games at home in a row in the Champions League. Reus has four goals and two assists already this season. Dortmund have scored 11 goals in their past two matches. Monaco only have 1 clean sheet in their past 17 road games. Atletico play Club Brugge at home. Brugge have lost 7 in a row on the road in this competition. Atletico and clean sheets at home go hand in hand.

Liverpool at +116 for 3 units. Liverpool travel to the Stadio San Paolo to take on Napoli. The Reds have not lost yet domestically and just beat PSG. Napoli have to win here after drawing their first game in this group stage. Liverpool averaged 3.15 goals a game in this competition last season and they haven’t slowed down. Firmino, Salah, and Mane will be too much offense for Napoli.

Tennis October 3rd

51-25-2 on tennis up 17.08 units

Should have bet Verdasco straight up instead of games. I thought Monfils would wear down a little more in the second and third set. Verdasco still won the match, but actually won less games. My max play Fognini lost the first set and was down a break in the second set, but then he flipped the switch and won. Some people think Fognini is frustrating because he does not give it his all, but I find him to be the most entertaining player on the ATP tour. Berrettini covered easily due to his ability to save every break point and Leonardo Mayer’s terrible form. Sousa, surprisingly to me, got worked by Rublev.

Del Potro -3 for 2 units. Karen Khachanov got a tough draw here. Karen is 0-8 against the top 5 in his career. Del Potro has already beat him twice this season, covering 3 games both times. Not going to overthink this one.

Medvedev at -139 for 2 units. Daniil Medvedev had an impressive straight set win over the 4 seed, Diego Schwartzman, in the last round. Martin Klizan and Medvedev have had impressive hardcourt season so far. Klizan is 13-4 and Medvedev is 9-3 on the hardcourt. Klizan has a high ceiling, but he is going to have to play a near perfect game to win here. I like Daniil at these odds.

Berrettini at +111 for 2 units. Matteo Berrettini is in better form than Kyle Edmund; however, both players are having their most impressive years to date. Berrettini is having a much better season on hard courts. Edmund is just 11-9 on hard courts this season. Matteo has made to the round of 16 in his past two tournaments and will want to get over the hump here. Edmund won the only previous meeting, but that was on clay when Matteo was still a teenager.

MLB October 2nd

70-72 on the MLB down 2.55 units

Cubs at -130 for 3 units. Cubs have a bullpen that is about 2 ERA points better. Rizzo, Bryant, Murphy, and Lester should be enough for the Cubs here. Rockies have had to go from Colorado, to LA, to Chicago in two days. Colorado’s offense is pretty bad on the road. Cubs had a chance to beat the Brew Crew, but the Cubs could not get a hit against Milwaukee’s stellar bullpen. Cubs have an OPS of almost .800 against lefties at home. Kyle Freeland, the pitcher for the Rockies, is a lefty. Cubs have the experience, the home-field advantage (travel included), and a better bullpen.

Hockey October 2nd

12-7-4 on Hockey this season up 13.16 units

Going back to the SM Liiga in Finland. It has been good to me in waiting for the NHL to start. My friend showed me these Finnish overs a while back and I have been making money ever since. Shoutout to Neal. No overs today, just some leans on the outcomes of the games.

Jukurit pk at +121 for 2 units. Jukurit has more points on the season and a better defense. They had some goalie struggles earlier in the season, but those seemed to have been worked out. Jukurit has lost every game at home this season, I think that changes today against JYP. JYP has lost two in a row.

Vaasan Sport pk at +133 for 2 units. Tappara has less points on more games than Vaasan early in this season. Vaasan has not lost a game in regular time at home all season. Just a hunch on this one.

Tennis October 2nd

49-23-2 on tennis up 15.75 units

Berrettini -3 for 3 units. Matteo Berrettini came back after going down a set to beat Leonardo Mayer last time they met. Mayer is in a lot worse form now than he was then. This is Leonardo’s first match since he retired at the US Open. Berrettini has the head to head history, the form, and the fitness.

Verdasco -.5 at -103 for 3 units. Monfils does not have the fitness or the form. Verdasco is 1-4 against Monfils in his career, but he won the most recent meeting. First time Gael has played here in Beijing. Verdasco got some flack for being rude to a ball boy last week. That should not affect him in this match though.

Sousa at +108 for 3 units. Sousa won the last meeting against Rublev and he is in better form. Rublev has been pretty bad since returning from his injury. Sousa made it to the round of 16 at the US Open and the semi-final at Chengdu recently. Going with the player with the better form, fitness, and H2H history.

Fognini at -227 for 10 units. Max play. Radu Albot has a tough draw here. Fognini is the far more talented player and he has been consistent this season. He made it to the final and lost last week. Albot has never won a match on the Asian part of the ATP tour. Fognini has not lost in the first round at this tournament since 2014. He will be comfortable here going for an Italian record 4th ATP tour title this season.

Champions League Soccer October 2nd

32-22-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 21.40 units

Manchester City -1.5 for 2 units. City has not lost an away game since their 3-0 defeat to Liverpool back in April. They lost their first champions league group stage game to Lyon 2-1. They can’t lose two in a row. Aguero, Sterling, and Silva will do enough to cover here. I see this game ending 3-0 or 3-1 for Manchester City. Aguero is going for his 30th champions league goal and I think he gets it.

Benfica at +117 for 2 units. Athens FC’s #10, Marko Livaja and their leftback Helder Lopes are both suspended for this one. That hurts them. Pizzi has been on a goal scoring tear this season for Benfica. Athens is consistent, but I do not think they have the ability to beat this hungry Benfica team.

Roma at -303 for 4 units. Dzeko had a hat-trick last time he met Plzen in Rome. Plzen have won just one of their last 10 away matches. Roma lost to Real Madrid 3-0 in their first group stage game, so they have to get 3 points out of this one. In home Serie A games, Roma has scored first in every game this season.

NFL October 1st

Listening to Brockhampton’s New Orleans as I write this, “The feeling’s never the same, you chase what you couldn’t gain. I’m so accustomed to flames, I couldn’t tell you what’s fire.” 

Thought my Colts bet would push, but then Frank Reich went for it on 4th down in overtime on Indy’s side of the field. The Texans stopped them and got the ball with 24 seconds left. Deshaun Watson throws it to Hopkins to get into field goal range and Houston wins. Reich said he wasn’t playing to tie. Well Frank, a tie is better than a loss in every playoff scenario and in my wallet. Damnit Frank. Vinatieri broke the NFL record for field goals made. The man is clutch and consistent. Luck threw a completion 51 yards in the air. Andrew can throw deep again!! I was thinking he was going to have a late stage Peyton Manning noodle arm for the rest of his career, it seems I was wrong. The former North Carolina State running back, Nyheim Hines, introduced himself to the NFL with two touchdowns and 73 total yards. It was an exciting game that neither team should have lost. Frank Reich has probably kissed his sister before.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers covered and won against the Bills. Buffalo scored 27 first half points last week against the Vikings. They didn’t score in either half in this one. Josh Allen had two interceptions and a lost fumble. Bills offense had like 5 too many 3 and outs. McCoy had 5 carries for 24 yards. Packers are going to have to keep winning if they want to keep pace with Chiacago.

The Bears won behind Mitch Trubisky’s 6 touchdowns. The most for a Chicago QB in the Super Bowl era. Tarik Cohen went off as well. Cohen had 20 touches for 174 yards and a touchdown, essentially making Jordan Howard obsolete. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 9/18 with an interception and Jameis Winston was 16/20 with a TD and two interceptions. Neither played great. Akiem Hicks got ejected for touching an official. DeSean Jackson still has wheels and is averaging over 20 yards a catch. Taylor Gabriel had 7 catches on 7 targets (104 yards and two TDs) and has found a nice home in Chicago. Bears are 3-1 and leading the NFC North.

Marcus Mariota and the Titans beat the defending Super Bowl champions in overtime behind a Corey Davis touchdown. Davis had 161 yards and a touchdown on the day. Ertz and Jeffrey had over 100 yards receiving for the Eagles. Philly is 2-2 having lost both road games this season. Philly’s o-line, secondary, and play-calling could all use some work. Wentz looked solid though. You don’t hear much about this Titans team, but they are 3-1 with quality wins over the Jaguars and Eagles.

The Patriots were up 24-0 on the Dolphins at halftime. Tom Brady threw two interceptions, but Ryan Tannehill played awfully. Josh Gordon caught two balls for 32 yards. The Patriots latest “rehab” project looks like it is off to a good start. Gronk left the game early, but “should be fine.” Dolphins did not record a sack. Sony Michel had 25 carries for 112 yards in a week in which Georgia running backs went off across the league.

Nick Chubb had 3 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. A silly good game for him. Chubb broke 4 tackles on his second touchdown run. Browns lost, but they covered. Good teams win, Great teams cover. Gruden got his first win in a decade. Refs were bad for both sides in this one. Browns need to cover the tight ends a lot better if they want to string together some wins. Lee Smith was wide open every time he was targeted and Jared Cook had 110 yards with two touchdowns.

The Cowboys got a needed win against the Lions. Dak and Elliot played the best games of their season. The Cowboys got a win without Sean Lee. The Lions should have ran Kerryon Johnson more. Lions secondary let up too many big plays. Demarcus Lawrence did his best Demarcus Ware impersonation with 3 sacks on the day.

In what I thought was the best game of the day, the Bengals beat the Falcons. Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Deion Jones being on IR for the Falcons was, what I believe, to be the difference in this game. Atlanta had no answer for Tyler Boyd, AJ Green, John Ross, and Eifert. Speaking of the IR, Eifert had a Gordon Hayward-esque ankle injury. It is sad because he is seriously snake bit, but his mullet is awesome.. Joe Mixon should be back next week, so the talented Giovanni Bernard will most likely take a backseat. UNC football sucks now, but they were good with Gio. 

Jaguars rolled over the Jets. Jets lack an offensive playbook it seems. They only ran 14 times, they do the same play to Enunwa like 10 times a game. Jets had two big plays called back for a penalty. Blake Bortles threw a completion 64 yards in the air. Dede Westbrook was open all day for Jacksonville.

The Seahawks were down at halftime, but rallied to beat the Josh Rosen led Cardinals. Chris Carson was out, but Mike Davis had 21 carries for 101 yards. Bruce “armchair coach” Arians said Arizona was using David Johnson wrong. They involved Johnson more in the passing game this week. Earl Thomas was lost for the season. Le’Veon Bell said he will continue to be the bad guy even after Thomas stopped holding out, came back, and was lost for the season. Mike Iupati had a great game at left guard for Arizona. David Johnson had 7 carries for 51 yards when running behind Iupati. Cards seem like the Jets in the sense that they need a bigger offensive playbook. JJ Nelson should be utilized more.

The Chargers came back to beat the 49ers after being down 14-6 after 1 quarter. Phil Rivers has been playing excellent all season long. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler may be the best backfield duo in the league (well at least untill Mark Ingram and Kamara get going). CJ Beathard had a great game, but the 49ers just couldn’t seem to tackle or get stops when they needed them. Derwin James is making a case for the best safety in the league as a rookie. I was shocked on draft day when he slipped to pick 18. He is a top 10 talent. I am going to give another offensive lineman some love here, Russell Okung played a great game. Gordon and Ekeler had 12 carries for 81 yards running behind Okung. Antonio Gates got another touchdown….

The Saints beat the Giants. Saquon Barkley has had 100 total yards or more in every game in his young career. Barkley also scored a pretty sweet touchdown. Barkley had a higher top speed (20.86 mph) than Tedd Ginn in this game (19.76 mph). He is an athlete. Odell still doesn’t have a touchdown on the season. Sterling Shepard had 10 catches on 10 targets. There were no sacks in this game.

The Ravens, John Brown, and Justin Tucker beat the Steelers. Pittsburgh just can’t sustain drives without their “Bell” cow. Flacco completed 28 passes to 11 different people. Ryan Switzer led Pittsburgh in receptions with 7. Ravens looked great in all 3 phases of the game. Baltimore has a great offensive playbook, unlike the Giants, Jets, and Cardinals.

14-14-3 on NFL down 1.38 units

Case Keenum over 279 passing yards at -110 for 3 units. KC gives up 362 passing yards a game. Keenum averages 275.5 yards threw the air at home. The Chiefs give up the most points per drive on the season. Broncos and Keenum should be able to move the ball in this one. 2-0 on Qb prop bets on the season. Let’s keep it rolling.

Phillip Lindsay 1+ rushing Td(s) at +130 for 3 units. Lindsay does not have a rushing touchdown on the season, but I think he gets one here. 4 Broncos have a rushing touchdown on the season, it is Phillip’s turn now. Lindsay averages 6 YPC. He can break a big one here against the Chiefs. Kansas City gives up 111 rushing yards a game. KC has given up 3 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Broncos over 2.5 sacks at +100 for 3 units. Von Miller. Broncos average 3 sacks a game.

MLB October 1st

69-71 on the MLB down 3.30 units

Listening to Hittas by Lil Wayne as a I write this, “been doin‘ numbers since Roman numerals.” 

I am going to count these games today as a part of my playoff record. This means I placed a 140 MLB wagers this season.. and got juiced. I love playoff baseball and look forward to seeing if the Red Sox (or someone else) can knock off the Astros. One of these underdogs will win, book it.

Brewers at +115 for 5 units. Cubs won the season series 11-8, but the Brewers are the hotter team. Jose Quintana had a good September, but he gives up too many home runs for my liking (25 on the season). Jhoulys Chacin has given up 8 less homers in 18 more innings. I bring up the homers because of Christian Yelich. The man has been insane since the all-star break and over Milwaukee’s recent 7 game win streak. Yelich is batting .323 on the season with 36 homers and 109 RBI’s. Silly numbers. Yelich had two homers two games ago, the Tigers were over it and just started intentionally walking him last game. Chicago’s bullpen ERA is 3.95 over the past month, Brewers have a 2.03 bullpen ERA in that same timeframe. Brewers have the hotter bats and the hotter bullpen.

Rockies at +157 for 5 units. Rockies have the hot bats. Dodgers have the hot pitcher. Something has to give here. I think the Rockies want to win more here. David Dahl has a home run in 6 of the last 7 games. Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle last time out. The 9th in Colorado’s history. That is not even mentioning Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. Dodgers draw the most walks in the MLB, that is the key to the game. Colorado’s German Marquez is 14-6 when he walks 2 or fewer batters with a 3.04 ERA.

NFL September 30th

11-13-1 on NFL down 5.34 units

Went up over 10 units and then down over 10 units already on this NFL season. Had a good read on the Thursday night game and I am going to keep that going. I have won a lot of money since Tha Carter V came out. I thank Wayne. Causation.

People said the Vikings defense could stop Sean McVay on the road on a short week… lol. Anthony Barr got burnt over and over again. Barr was drafted 4 picks before Aaron Donald in the 2014 draft.

Packers at -380 for 6 units. Packers won’t take the Bills for granted like the Vikings did last week. Rodgers does not lose at home very often. Green Bay averages over 100 more yards per game on offense than the Bills. Packers have a problem getting off the field on 3rd down (45% third down conversion allowed), they had to have made that a focus this week. Packers only win this year was when Aaron was all hopped up on pain pills against the Bears. They get back to winning here.

Colts at -105 for 3 units. Texans are 0-3 and now travel to Indy. Colts gave the Eagles all they could handle last week. This Colts defense finally looks like a NFL defense allowing 21 points a game. Houston is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games, while Indy is 4-1 ATS. Weak offensive lines in this one, Hopkins and Hilton will prolly go off.

Andrew Luck over 263 passing yards at -145 for 2 units. Luck threw for 319 yards in his only other home game this season. Shoulder should be back to “basically 100%.” The over/under for this game is 48, which is a little above average. Could turn into a shootout.

Seahawks -3 for 2 units. This is one of those games that I want to bet a lot on, but I feel like I shouldn’t. Seahawks have not played well on the road this season, but they should be favored by more against the Cards right? Cardinals only convert 23% of their third downs on offense and now they meet Earl Thomas. Seattle averages over 100 yards per game more on offense than Arizona does on offense. Also, Seattle has a better defense… I can go on and on.

Chris Carson over 66 rushing yards at +114 for 4 units. Seattle gets up and runs him. Seattle gave him the ball 32 times on the ground last game and they won. That should be their formula like it was when they had the Legion of Boom and Beast Mode.

Browns +3 for 3 units. Baker Mayfield and their lottery pick defense gets the job done here. That is all.

Ravens +3 for 3 units. Steelers have not looked all that solid this season. I think this game should be a push so I will take the points. Justin Tucker could be the difference in this one. The man just doesn’t miss field goals. Big Ben is going to sacked multiple times in this one. Suggs is solid against the run and we all know what he can do as a pass rusher. JuJu and Antonio Brown can always go off and screw me here, but I like what I have seen from the Ravens so far this year. Steelers have an awful secondary. John Brown will have a big game.