49-23-2 on tennis up 15.75 units
Berrettini -3 for 3 units. Matteo Berrettini came back after going down a set to beat Leonardo Mayer last time they met. Mayer is in a lot worse form now than he was then. This is Leonardo’s first match since he retired at the US Open. Berrettini has the head to head history, the form, and the fitness.
Verdasco -.5 at -103 for 3 units. Monfils does not have the fitness or the form. Verdasco is 1-4 against Monfils in his career, but he won the most recent meeting. First time Gael has played here in Beijing. Verdasco got some flack for being rude to a ball boy last week. That should not affect him in this match though.
Sousa at +108 for 3 units. Sousa won the last meeting against Rublev and he is in better form. Rublev has been pretty bad since returning from his injury. Sousa made it to the round of 16 at the US Open and the semi-final at Chengdu recently. Going with the player with the better form, fitness, and H2H history.
Fognini at -227 for 10 units. Max play. Radu Albot has a tough draw here. Fognini is the far more talented player and he has been consistent this season. He made it to the final and lost last week. Albot has never won a match on the Asian part of the ATP tour. Fognini has not lost in the first round at this tournament since 2014. He will be comfortable here going for an Italian record 4th ATP tour title this season.