MLB Playoffs – NLDS

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

43-39 on MLB this season down 2.55 units

1-0 on playoffs up 2.88 units

Had an average MLB season, but I always feel more on-point in the playoffs. Last season I went up around 20 units in the playoffs. The Rays win was too easy. Charlie Morton at plus money against a pitcher lacking playoff experience are the angles I love this time of year. That Nationals/Brewers game was awesome! Milwaukee wouldn’t have lost that game with Yelich, but congrats to the Nats (and Rays). Onto the NLDS

Braves/Cardinals under 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit. Mikolas allowed 1 run in 7 2/3 innings last time out against the Cubs. Keuchel has an ERA under 3 in his last 8 starts. Keuchel has been giving up some homers, but I’ll sprinkle a little on a pitcher’s duel.

Dodgers at -171 for 3 units. Dodgers are better than the Nationals. The Dodgers have the best bullpen ERA in the NL. The Nationals have the worst. Turner is healthy. Bellinger’s inability to bend his knees in the batter’s box will continue to throw pitchers off. I watched Ferris Bueller’s Day Off recently, so Buehler has to get the win for Dodgers. That’s just how it works.

MLB September 5th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

42-39 on MLB this season down 4.86 units

When the Mets were up 10-4 in the bottom of the 9th, I thought they had it won. I am no Mets fan, but I learned what it is like to be a Mets fan over the past few decades on September 3rd, 2019. It was a slow burn of the Nationals scoring 7 runs in the 9th that ended with a walk-off bomb. It pushed the Mets further out of the playoffs. I still won money on the day thanks to the Twins, but Jesus Mets.

Tigers first 5 at -130 for 3 units. Matthew Boyd. Royals can’t hit that well. Kansas City have won 4 in a row, but I think they lose the first 5 today. Merrifield is an impressive 17-36 against Boyd. If Boyd can handle the KC leadoff man, this should win easy.

MLB September 3rd

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

41-38 on MLB this season down 5.46 units

Twins at +130 for 2 units. The Red Sox have to go on a win streak they haven’t gone on all season to make the playoffs. The Twins have just been the better team this year. Minnesota have won 8 of their last 9. Have to take them at plus money.

Mets at +124 for 2 units. Mets need this win more than the Nationals do. DeGrom and Scherzer today. Two greats. Max hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in his last 3 starts. I like deGrom to go deeper in the game and that may be the difference in who wins this one. The Mets won both deGrom-Scherzer matchups already played this season.

MLB August 14th – Twins and Yankees

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

40-37 on MLB this season down 1.61 units

Yankees at -255 for 3 units. Little bit of reverse line movement here, but not enough to scare me off of the Yankees. New York has won 4 in a row. Gio Urshela had 3 hits yesterday. That DJ LeMahieu guy had a homer on the first pitch from Baltimore. Judge finally got a double and that may be all he needs to break out of his slump. Bundy has a 6.56 ERA over his last 3 starts for the O’s. Baltimore can clinch a 3rd straight losing season with a loss today…

Twins at +105 for 5 units. Kyle Gibson has won 2 of his last 3 starts for Minnesota. Gio Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 6.56 ERA in nine career starts against the Twins. Milwaukee’s bullpen has not been what it was last season. Minnesota are a half game ahead of the Indians in their division. The Brew Crew are 2 and half games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. Minnesota has the best BA and SLG in the MLB against lefties this season. Gio is a lefty. I like this spot today.

MLB August 8th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

40-35 on MLB this season up 6.39 units

Yankees -1.5/Braves -1.5 Parlay risking 3 units to win 6.01 units. Yankees have won 8 in a row. German is 5-0 for the Yankees since returning from injury. Pannone is 0-3 with an ERA over 8 in his 3 starts this season for Toronto. I like the Yankees to keep scoring today even with a depleted lineup (No Hicks, Stanton, Sanchez…) The Braves have hot bats scoring 23 runs over their past 2 games. Keuchel has 5 quality starts in his last 7 for Atlanta. Elieser Hernandez have up 5 earned runs in 3 innings to the Rays last time out. The Yankees and Braves should put up enough runs on the road to cover.

Tigers to score first at +105 for 5 units. Matthew Boyd did not get traded and is still Detroit’s Ace. If the Tigers can’t hit Jorge Lopez today. I quit them. Lopez is 1-7 this season overall and 0-3 all-time against the Tigers. Lopez is starting because of an injury to Danny Duffy. The Tigers, the worst team in baseball, are actually winning the season series against the Royals. I expect the the Tigers to score first with today’s starting pitchers. Boyd will get his strikeouts, here’s to hoping Lopez makes a mistake before him.

MLB Sunday

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

38-33 on MLB this season up 0.49 units

Tampa Bay Rays at -171 for 7 units. Caleb Smith has been pitching well for the Marlins. He leads Miami in wins (7). Chirinos has pitched almost as well this season for the Rays. Austin Meadows just keeps hitting homers for the Rays. Tampa Bay had 4 homers yesterday.. Tampa Bay have won 5 in a row, but are only a half game up over the A’s in the Wild Card. The Marlins are 22 games back in the NL East..

Brewers at +129 for 1 unit. I don’t trust Yu Darvish.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ at +131 for 4 units. Kenta Maeda gave up 6 runs in his last start for the Dodgers, but that was in Colorado. Dodgers are going to give him some run support today.

New York Yankees -1½ at +170 for 4 units. Red Sox have lost 7 in a row. Yankees have won 4 in a row. DJ LeMahieu just keeps being the best hitter in baseball this season. Aaron Hicks and Edwin Encarnacion were hurt in this series and are out for this one, but that just gives us better odds. New York’s bats should be able to hit David Price. Price is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts. Happ is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox this season. I like New York’s lefty better. Don’t like taking home team runlines, but this is solid value.

MLB August 2nd

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

37-32 on MLB this season up 0.89 units

ATLANTA BRAVES at -135 for 2 units.

NEW YORK YANKEES at -125 for 2 units.

Traveling today so no write-up.

MLB Trade Deadline Recap and More

Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion were traded back in June.. but July had plenty of trades. The deadline was slow until the Greinke trade along with others were completed in the final hours. It was interesting having the deadline on August 1st, because some teams, like the Mets, are technically still in the playoff hunt…

Teams that did little to nothing:

The Orioles kept Trey Mancini and other young guys, which was smart. They did not make a trade. The Red Sox needed some relief pitching and got none. Andrew Cashner was acquired after the all-star break, but they did nothing at the deadline. Dave Dom said they had the opportunity to make a lot of trades if they wanted.. well they didn’t. The Yankees need starters, even with Severino coming back soon. They got a 19-year-old one in Alfredo Garcia. Not what Yankee fans wanted to say the least. Watching pissed off Yankee fans react on Twitter is always fun. Examples. Astros got better by getting Zack Greinke!! and the Yanks and Red Sox stand pat..

The White Sox traded some minor league players, but essentially did nothing. I couldn’t find a great deal for them to make anyway. The Royals moved Jake Diekman, Homer Bailey and Martin Maldonado before the deadline.. but did nothing at the deadline. They did enough early to sit back. The Angels added catcher Max Stassi, but didn’t move the needle but adding strong pitchers. The Rangers received pitcher Kolby Allard, which was a good return for Chris Martin. Mike Minor prolly shoulda been traded.. The Phillies added Corey Dickerson and Jason Vargas.. not groundbreaking stuff. The Pirates got cash in return for Corey Dickerson. They had relievers to trade, but weirdly didn’t. The Cardinals traded Jedd Gyorko for cash reasons. The Rockies and Dodgers did nothing.

Image result for zack greinke

Teams That Did Some Things in Order of How Good Those Things The Teams Did are:

The Astros have done it again. Two years ago it was Verlander, now they have added Zack Greinke!! Martin Maldonado is a great backup catcher to add. Joe Biagini and Aaron Sanchez are pitchers that can improve in Houston. Kyle Tucker, Houston’s best prospect in many eyes, stayed with the team. They did give up some marquee prospects to the Diamondbacks for Greinke, but Ray from The Trailer Park Boys said it best, “That’s the way she goes”. Solid work done again in Houston. Morey ball crosses all sports I guess.

The Giants got rid of relievers Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson, Ray Black, and Drew Pomeranz for marquee prospect Mauricio Dubon essentially. The Braves took on all of Melancon’s contract, which was surprising to me. Dubon is a little “old” for a prospect at 25, but he is a solid shortstop. Madison Bumgarner stayed put. Scooter Gennett is a solid, but injured add. San Francisco is still in the wildcard race, and they got better in the minor leagues. Solid work.

The Indians got rid of Trevor Bauer, but they got some above average outfielders in Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes. Logan Allen, Victor Nova, and Scott Moss are solid youngsters to receive for Bauer. Cleveland are still in the playoffs as of now.. yes their pitching rotation got worse, but they added a ton of depth and prospects. Solid work similar to the Giants.

The Rays Jesus Aguilar addition is great if he can improve. Aguilar was bought low for a reason… Tampa Bay needs some more homers. Travis d’Arnaud can’t hit 3-homers against the Yankees every time. Trevor Richards will help the rotation. Nick Anderson is a good reliever. Giving up Ryne Stanek is tough, but the Rays did better than all of their division opponents.

The Tigers traded Shane Greene and Nicholas Castellanos for prospects like Joey Wentz, Travis Demeritte (who has over 20 homers in triple-A this season), and Paul Richan (who is 10-5 in the minors this season and was second round pick last year by the Cubs). Tigers did what they had to do. The Cubs are helping pay for Castellanos too.

The Braves added Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and Chris Martin. A great collection of relievers to stiffen up their bullpen. They could have added some stars, but I like what they did.

The Diamondbacks added a shit-ton of great prospects to cover a bunch of different weaknesses. Those weaknesses should be gone in the next few seasons now.

The Reds have been in the news for more than just brawling with their deadline moves. Trevor Bauer is a great addition for next year. Puig is gone, but that’s fine. Tanner Roark to the A’s for young outfielder Jameson Hannah is good work for the future. Cincy got better in 2020 at this deadline.

The Marlins traded Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards for Rays P Ryne Stanek and young outfielder Jesus Sanchez. That is a solid deal. They also picked up a guy named Jazz. Honestly, when Miami doesn’t trade their best players, I think they did well.

The Nationals made moves similar to their rival Braves, by adding solid bullpen depth in Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland.

The Twins added Sam Dyson for pennies. Dyson will help their bullpen.

The Brewers added Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, Jordan Lyles, and Jacob Faria – good additions. Just good. Milwaukee lost too many prospects for my liking..

The Cubs added David Phelps in the bullpen. Not enough. Nicholas Castellanos is one of my favorite players, but I like him more than I should prolly. Decent deadline, but I would have liked some more pitching for Chicago.

The Padres added Taylor Trammell, but Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen and Victor Nova are a lot to give up for Trammell in my opinion.

If I forgot your team.. sucks. My bitch (dog) needs a walk.

Today’s plays:

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

33-32 on MLB this season down 5.45 units

Marlins at +160 for 1 unit. Jordan Yamamoto is my man. That is all. Still like Yelich more (bad trade Jeter), but Yamamoto has been impressive this season. 

Atlanta Braves -1½ at +127 for 1 unit. Atlanta has some hot bats right now.

Cardinals at -125 for 2 units. Jon Lester against Jack Flaherty. The Cardinals are favored at home. Had the Cards at -160 so I’ll take the value.

Houston Astros -1½ at -118 for 2 units. Gerrit Cole on the mound is what I like against the Wildcard leading Indians. Houston should be able to hit Danny Salazar.

 

 

MLB Baseball. End of July.

Went 3-1 yesterday. Julio Teheran got his first win of July yesterday.. even though he had an ERA under 1.5 for the month. Will update my overall record after today’s games. Will do a trade deadline recap as well. The past 5 World Series Champions have all made a big deadline move…

Braves -1.5 at +130 for 4 units.

Yankees -130 for 2 units. I had the Dbacks favored in this game, but they are not. No Sanchez or LaMahieu for the Yanks. I’m fading myself and zigging here.

Rockies/Dodgers under 12 for 2 units.

Rockies +1.5 at -130 for 2 units. Marquez has been dealing lately and Ryu has been hot all year.