44-34-2 on NBA Playoffs up 23.48 units
Rockets +4.5 1st quarter for 2 units. Rockets got out to a solid start last game. It just feels like since the 4th quarter of Game 4 the Rockets have figured out Golden State’s offense. 5 points is lot of points to lay in 1 quarter. I know CP3 is out, but I think Harden can do enough for this to cover.
James Harden over 34 points for 2 units. If they Rockets want to win tonight, Harden has to play well. If Harden plays well along with Ariza, Tucker, and others making their open 3s.. The Rockets may win this in 6. I wouldn’t bet on that, but I will bet on Harden trying to take over the game with no Chris Paul.
Rockets/Warriors under 214 for 3 units. Last two have gone under. No Chris Paul. Play of the night here.
40-30-2 on NBA Playoffs up 23.21 units
Celtics -1 for 2 units. Celtics have not lost a game at home this postseason. I think this game will be called evenly now that Lebron is not down in the series. Kevin Love is a little hurt and Lebron has not looked great away from home this series. I think Brad Stevens makes the necessary adjustments and the Celtics get a win tonight.
Celtics – Cavs over 206 for 1 unit. Just a gut feeling. Last game soared over and I expect more of the same here.
Celtics pk 1st Quarter for 4 units. Celtics got down big in both of their first quarters in Cleveland this series. They know they can’t do that tonight or the series is over. I expect the Celtics to come out strong in the first quarter tonight at home.
JR Smith under 12 points for 2 units. JR does not play as well away from home. JR Smith is 2-4 at hitting over this number away from home this postseason. The 2 he went over were against the Raptors. I think the Celtics have a lot better perimeter defense than the Raptors.
Terry Rozier over 17 points for 3 units. Rozier has averaged 17.1 points a game this postseason, but he averages 20 points at home this postseason. Rozier will play a lot of minutes with Larkin still out. If he can make 2 three pointers, I think this hits easy.
37-29-2 on NBA Playoffs up 19.19 units
Shaun Livingston and Steph Curry got going in the second half and humiliated Harden and the Rockets. Golden State could have not scored in the 4th quarter and won the game 88-85. Kevin Durant is amazing, but when Steph Curry gets hot… the game just looks unfair to whoever the Warriors are playing. Warriors are just too damn good, it is annoying.
Cavs – Celtics over 205.5 for 2 units. No game has gone over this series, but I expect that to change tonight. Game 3 should have gone over, but the Celtics had a 17 point 1st quarter. I think Brad Stevens will make the 1st quarter a focal point and they will come out swinging in Game 4.
Celtics +3 1st Quarter for 2 units. Celtics got down 15 in the first quarter of Game 3. I think the Celtics come to play in Game 4. Jaylen Brown may have had the worst quarter in his young playoff career in Game 3. Celtics got down 20-4 early in Game 3, they know they can’t do this again if they expect to win.
Kyle Korver over 11 at +100 for 2 units. Korver has hit this number 5 of his last 6 games at home. Korver was 4-4 from deep in Game 3. Korver may not shoot 100% again, but role players typically shoot better at home and I expect that to continue to be true for Korver.
Jaylen Brown over 17 points for 2 units. Brown played awful last game so this number is about 2 or 3 points lower than I think it should be. Brown does have to guard Lebron, but his foul trouble last game was what really held him back. The Celtics need Jaylen Brown to play well and I think he will tonight.
34-28-2 on NBA Playoffs up 17.65 units
The Cavs got up on the Celtics and never let them back in the game. Cleveland made 10 three pointers before Boston made 3 of them. Lebron James looked rejuvenated with a few days off. Boston hasn’t lost at home these playoffs, so Lebron still has his work cut out for him. It was the first game Cedi Osman played for the Cavs and they won.. coincidence? Game 4 should be a good one.
Warriors -7.5 for 2 units. I think the Warriors win by double digits at home. The Rockets got a big lead early in Game 2 because of the Warriors turnovers and lazy play. I expect the Warriors to come out firing in the first quarter of this one. Steph will be better at home than he was in Game 2.
Warriors 1st Quarter -3 for 3 units. Warriors won’t be sloppy in the beginning of this game like they were last game. They now know it’s difficult to come back on a team like the Rockets if they get down early (if they didn’t know before Game 2).
Warriors 4th Quarter -1 for 2 units. I think the Warriors start this game strong and finish it strong as well.
Trevor Ariza over 11 points for 5 units. He will get over this number if he does not get in foul trouble.
31-23-2 on NBA Playoffs up 21.03 units
Lebron James went off in the first half, then the Cavs sucked in the 2nd half. The Celtics turned it on, Rozier is fun to watch. J.R. Smith’s unnecessary shove on Al Horford late in the game summed up Cleveland’s frustrations well. Seemed like the Cavs were just standing there on defense in the second half. I still think the Celtics win this series and steal one in The Land. Celtics fans will be able to say they made Lebron leave for the Heat, and made Lebron leave for the team TBD. The Celtics win the series bet at plus money is still alive and well. Celtics to win the series has moved to -220…
Warriors +2 for 3 units. Best basketball team ever at +2 seems too easy. Warriors were in second gear it felt like in Game 1. I think they have another level to go up. The Rockets just don’t have the perimeter defense to guard Klay and Steph (nobody can guard KD). Ryan Anderson has been cold since his return from injury. Nene is getting minutes for the Rockets and KD was pissed when Kerr took him out when Nene was guarding him. I don’t think James Harden can play much better than he did in Game 1. The refs will most likely be on the Rockets side so the NBA can extend this series, but the Warriors are good enough to overcome that.
Trevor Ariza over 10 points at -108 for 3 units. Ariza was in foul trouble in Game 1 and only played 23 minutes. He still had 8 points. I think with added minutes he gets over this low number. Ariza averaged almost 12 points a game on the season and the Rockets will need his 3 point shooting if they want to win tonight.
Clint Capela over 15 points +106 for 1 unit. The Rockets have to find more ways to get Capela involved against the Warriors small ball lineup if they want to win. Playing Nene does not work. Capela had the best plus/minus for any Houston starter in Game 1 and I think he will get more than 30 minutes tonight.
18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units
16-16 on NBA in 2018 down 6.08 units
Pacers -4 for 4 units. Nets have lost 6 in a row and have one of the worst defenses in the league. Oladipo and former Net Bojan Bogdanovic have been on a tear lately. Bojan is shooting 50% from deep over the past 6 games. The Pacers are holding opponents under 33% from 3 in their past 20 games and I expect them to pull away in this one because of that. Pacers are 3-0 vs the Nets this season, winning all the games by 4 or more.
Warriors -6 for 3 units. The player coach angle is an interesting one as the Warriors are 53-4 without Kerr since he has been their head coach. Ty Lue was asked about Kerr letting the players coach and said “I wouldn’t do that. They already say Lebron is coaching the team anyway. So, if I give him the clipboard, they are really going to say that.” Lue is not ignorant. Warriors won the last meeting between these two by 7. Warriors have won 3 in a row in pretty dominating fashion and average 11.5 more assists a game than the Blazers. This assists difference just shows the difference in these two offenses.
Jazz team total over 111 for 3 units. Jazz have been the best NBA team over the past 10 games and now they get one of the worst teams in the NBA. Utah’s game scripts have been dictated by their opponents, but they are proving they can win in low scoring games (like against the Grizzlies and Spurs) and high scoring games (like against the Warriors and Pelicans). The Suns allow 113 points a game and now they play the hottest team in the NBA on Utah’s home court… I’ll take the Jazz over please.
Pelicans team total under 118 for 3 units. This number is just too high against an improving Lakers defense. The Pelicans have not scored over 118 in a home game that did not go into overtime since January 12th. Lakers have been hot against the spread lately, (8-2 in the last 10) but I like them to hold Pelicans to about 106 points.. not 118. Best of luck.