Category: Soccer

37-28-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 19.11 units

Dortmund/Bayern parlay at -140 for 4 units. Dortmund are now the hottest team in Europe. They haven’t lost since August 7th. Dortmund have not lost at home yet this season. Reus has 4 goals and 2 assists this season, but Dortmund has a lot more attacking players than just him. Sancho has 5 assists for Borussia, while Paco has 3 goals and Larsen has 2. That is without even mentioning the American wonder boy Pulisic.

Bayern need this win. They have not won in 3 straight matches and now face in-form Monchengladbach. Lewandowski, Robben, and Muller will do enough here. Boateng is no longer a world class defender in my opinion, but Munich will win this game.

36-27-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 17.33 units

Werder Bremen at -108 for 3 units. Werder Bremen have not lost in their past 15 matches at home. They got their first loss of the season last time out against Stuttgart, but that because Milos Veljkovic got red-carded in the first half for Bremen. Wolfsburg have lost their last 3 matches to Bremen. Max Kruse and the 21 year old Maximillian Eggestein have both been playing well for Werder Bremen this season. Bremen are in better form, have home-field advantage, and have the better attack.

Werder Bremen/Wolfsburg draw at +230 for 1 units. Funnily enough, both teams have drawn 3 and lost 3 in their last 6 Friday night clashes. Wolfsburg have drawn 3 of their past 4 games, so I think there is a little value in the draw. Using it as a hedge basically. Bremen will win or draw this match.

35-25-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 22.73 units

Champions League was awesome yesterday. The highlights were Neymar’s hat-trick (including two free kick goals) and this screaming volley by Rakitic. On to Europa…

Sevilla at -105 for 5 units. Sevilla are the hottest team in Europe right now. Sevilla has scored 17 goals in their last 4 games, which included a 3-0 win against Real Madrid. This will be Krasnodar and Sevilla’s first ever meeting. Krasnodar have been doing well in Russia, as they just beat Zenit 3-0. Quincy Promes just transferred from Russia to Sevilla and enjoyed playing Krasnodar in his time there (4 goals in 8 games). Ben Yedder and Banega both had two goals in the first group game for Sevilla. Ben Yedder is 6th and Andre Silva is 1st in La Liga in goals scored, not Messi, Suarez, Bale, Aspas, or Benzema. Krasnodar, even at home, won’t be able to keep up with Sevilla’s offense.

Arsenal at -250 for 4 units. Arsenal have won 7 in a row. They will want to win this game to essentially secure the group early on. Aubameyang had two goals last time out in this competition. Qarabag have only won one game at home against teams from the better leagues in the group stage. Arsenal are on a 25 year European trophy drought. They take one more step towards ending that today.

Besiktas pk/-.5 at +102 for 2 units. Besiktas just have more talent than Malmo. Besiktas has not lost a game since August 28th. The Istanbul club has scored first in each of their last 6 matches. Ryan Babel, Pepe, Quaresma, Negredo, Vagner Love, Gonul, and Hutchinson should show enough class to get a win here.

Aguero and David Silva got the goals to give Manchester City a much needed 3 points against Hoffenheim. Silva is a sneaky little guy. City are now second in the group behind Lyon, who they lost to. Lyon did well to come back and tie Shakhtar Donetsk after being down 2-0. Ajax are in fantastic form in their domestic league and this carried over as they tied Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena 1-1. Boateng is not a world class defender anymore. Hummels scored the goal on a quality header for Munich.

Juventus took care of business and outclassed Young Boys. Juve did not have Ronaldo, who was serving his red card suspension. Bonucci has this filthy long ball to Dybala. Dybala placed into the back of the net with a suave kind of calmness. Juventus have won 9 games to start this season, a club record.

Juve have not lost, Real Madrid lost again today. These two clubs will always be linked in my mind due to Ronaldo. CSKA Moscow was like, okay Real, you’re going not going to start Isco, Modric, Marcelo, Ramos, and Bale? We are going to beat you then and they did. Real Madrid and Manchester United are not living up to their club’s lofty history.

Manchester United put in another lackluster performance against Valencia. Eric Bailly had this terrible shot, which sums up United’s season nicely I think. Bailly is an interesting human. Here is a twitter thread of him doing ridiculous stuff. Worth the watch just for his interactions with Zlatan Ibrahimovic among a myriad of other things.

Benfica had not won on the road in a good while. They went up 2-0 on Athens, then Ruben Dias got a second yellow right before halftime. Athens scored 2 in a row to tie it, but Semedo did not let his team lose. Roma beat Plzen 5-0 and Dzeko got his second hat-trick against them in Rome in as many home matches.

34-24-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 23.06 units

Dortmund/Atletico Madrid Parlay at -150 for 4 units. Dortmund lost to Monaco 6-3 on aggregate last time these two met in this competition. The Germans will want revenge. Borussia have actually lost 4 games at home in a row in the Champions League. Reus has four goals and two assists already this season. Dortmund have scored 11 goals in their past two matches. Monaco only have 1 clean sheet in their past 17 road games. Atletico play Club Brugge at home. Brugge have lost 7 in a row on the road in this competition. Atletico and clean sheets at home go hand in hand.

Liverpool at +116 for 3 units. Liverpool travel to the Stadio San Paolo to take on Napoli. The Reds have not lost yet domestically and just beat PSG. Napoli have to win here after drawing their first game in this group stage. Liverpool averaged 3.15 goals a game in this competition last season and they haven’t slowed down. Firmino, Salah, and Mane will be too much offense for Napoli.

32-22-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 21.40 units

Manchester City -1.5 for 2 units. City has not lost an away game since their 3-0 defeat to Liverpool back in April. They lost their first champions league group stage game to Lyon 2-1. They can’t lose two in a row. Aguero, Sterling, and Silva will do enough to cover here. I see this game ending 3-0 or 3-1 for Manchester City. Aguero is going for his 30th champions league goal and I think he gets it.

Benfica at +117 for 2 units. Athens FC’s #10, Marko Livaja and their leftback Helder Lopes are both suspended for this one. That hurts them. Pizzi has been on a goal scoring tear this season for Benfica. Athens is consistent, but I do not think they have the ability to beat this hungry Benfica team.

Roma at -303 for 4 units. Dzeko had a hat-trick last time he met Plzen in Rome. Plzen have won just one of their last 10 away matches. Roma lost to Real Madrid 3-0 in their first group stage game, so they have to get 3 points out of this one. In home Serie A games, Roma has scored first in every game this season.

30-21-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 19.47 units

3-0-1 yesterday. I thought Hazard and Chelsea were going to give me my only loss on the day, but then Sturridge happened. Seriously, click that link.. that goal is absurd. Dortmund was down 2-0, but came back against Leverkusen to win 4-2. Borussia now have 11 goals in their past two league games. Ronaldo got two more assists for Juventus. He leads the league in assists. Mandzukic scored the brace in the Juve win, after Napoli went up early. Sevilla keeps scoring at will. Andre Silva is the top scorer in La Liga for Sevilla and he got another one in their 3-1 win over Eibar.

Villarreal -1 at -105 for 2 units. Villarreal just has more talent. Layun, Santi Cazorla, and Carlos Bacca all had their moments in Villarreal’s win over Bilbao. Villarreal have not won at home yet this La Liga season, but that will change today.

Eintracht Frankfurt at -108 for 2 units. Sebastian Haller has been Frankfurt’s best player so far this season with 3 goals and 1 assist. Frankfurt is another team that has not won at home yet this season, but that will change today. Hannover have not won an away game in forever (11 months). Frankfurt has won the last two meetings between these two. Hannover could get it together and do something here, but nothing I have seen from them makes me think that will happen on the road.

Burnley pk at +104 for 2 units. Burnley scores more than Cardiff and has a better defense. Ashley Barnes and that Aaron Lennon guy have played well for Burnley this year. There is too much value in this play for me to pass it up. Cardiff has only created 7 clear chances on the season, they scored on 3 of them. Cardiff have given up 15 goals in their past 4 games. Burnley will find the back of the net here.

27-21-4 on Soccer since World Cup up 7.83 units

Borussia Dortmund pk at -126 for 4 units. Dortmund beat Nurnberg 7-0 last time out. Dortmund has kept two clean sheets this season and are tied for best defense in the league by goals allowed. Reus likes playing Leverkusen. He has 7 goals and 3 assists in 12 games against them. Dortmund can move up to first in the league with a win. At worse they tie here.

Sevilla at +120 for 4 units. Sevilla is going for 4 wins in a row here. They just beat Real Madrid 3-0. Now they go on the road to face an average Eibar team. Sevilla has scored 14 goals in their last 3 games! Eibar beat Sevilla 5-1 last time they played. Sevilla will get revenge today. Ben Yedder has 6 goals in his past 3 games for Sevilla.

Liverpool pk at -116 for 4 units. Hazard did a Hazard and Chelsea went on to beat Liverpool in the Cup. Beating Liverpool twice in a row is no easy task. Liverpool are the only team left in the PL with a 100% record. Mane and Salah have been in fine form for a while now. Should be an exciting game, but I am backing the league leaders at this value.

Juventus at -109 for 4 units. Milik who has been in great form for Napoli and is not in the starting lineup today, but Ronaldo is for Juve. Juventus have scored 2 goals or more in 9 of their last 10 home games. Two best teams in the league here. Juve have allowed two goals in just 1 of their past 62 Serie A games at home…

27-18-3 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.83 units

Dusseldorf over 1 at -135 for 3 units. Dusseldorf has scored in every game at home since a club friendly against Dortmund in January.

Dusseldorf +½ at -103 for 2 units. Dusseldorf has scored in every game that their opponent has scored in (they have had one nil-nil draw). Dusseldorf has won both of their home games this season 2-1. Leverkusen may have some more talent with Volland and Leon Bailey, but Adam Bodzek has been a beast in the midfield for Dusseldorf. Bodzek will be on the bench today so expect him to come on as a super sub.

Barcelona at -417 for 5 units. Barcelona tied their last La Liga game. They won’t go winless for two in a row. That draw was more of a credit to Girona playing great than Barcelona playing poorly. Messi has 8 goals in his last 6 La Liga fixtures!

Barcelona -1½, -2 at -110 for 2 units. Leganes just does not have the talent or technique to keep this game within a goal. Leganes has been losing at halftime and fulltime in all of their matches with Barcelona so far.

Real Madrid at -121 for 2 units. Real Madrid have failed to win in their last 3 trips to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Sevilla is always solid at home, but I think Real does enough here to pull out a win. Ben Yedder and Sevilla have been scoring goals at will these past two games (11 goals for Sevilla), but the competition ramps up quite a few notches here. Bale, Modric, and Benzema will be too much offense for Sevilla’s average defense to control. Sevilla’s opponents have had success attacking up the left side and I expect to see that from Los Blancos today.

 

25-17-3 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.31 units

Ronaldo and Juventus got the half push/half win last time out. Let’s keep it rolling, I want to be up 40 units but the end of the calendar year. Might seem a bit bold, but I like having goals.

Real Sociedad at -170 for 3 units. Alaves beat Rayo Vallecano 5-1 last time out. Rayo have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Alberto Garcia has conceded 10 goals on only 21 shots as goalkeeper for Rayo Vallecano this season. Willian Jose (Sociedad’s leading scorer) should be back for this one. Real Sociedad have averaged over 2.5 goals a game at home in their last 15 at home. They barely lost to Barcelona 2-1 recently at home.

Atletico Madrid at -381 for 3 units. Just a huge gap in talent between Atletico and Huesca. Atletico will control this game, they have kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 12 La Liga games at home. Madrid needs a win here as 10 teams are tied or within 3 points of them in the final champions league spot. I know it is early in the season, but Atletico won’t want to fall too far behind Real and Barca. Diego Simeone and his club will take care of business today. This line should be closer to -500.

Freiburg pk, +½ at -110 for 3 units. Schalke are looking to avoid a fifth straight defeat here. Schalke have given up 3 corner goals already in this young season. Freiburg have scored 3 goals in their each of their last two games. I don’t think the gap in talent is different for these two teams so I will take the underdog that is in better form here.

24-17-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 16.51 units

Juventus -1½,-2 for 4 units. Ronaldo got red carded in the champions league game midweek and Juve still went on to win 2-0. Frosinone has a -10 goal differential on the season and they just don’t have the talent to keep up with this Juve team. Ronaldo had a brace in his last Serie A game. He will be looking to build off of that today. Frosinone have given up an average of 2.3 goals a game since getting promoted and it is not hard to see that average going up today.