Premier League Thursday Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

62-54-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 14.82 units

Going with the big favorite today.

Arsenal at -167 for 8 units. Interim head coach Freddie Ljungberg’s second game since taking over for Arsenal. Aubameyang is in-form and he scored twice in Arsenal’s latest draw to Norwich City. Arsenal have scored in the opening 30 minutes in half of their home league games this season. Brighton have not won an away league game since the season opener against Watford. I would feel even better about this play if Mustafi doesn’t start again. Pukki’s goal was a deflection off of him. Put in Martinelli for Willock, and I will be even more confident in this play.

Sheffield United at -120 for 2 units. Newcastle surprised me and many others with their 2-2 draw against Manchester City. Was it a sign of things to come for Newcastle, or a let down game for Man City? Sheffield is a tough club to play at this season. These two have not met in the Premier League since George W Bush was the president of the United States. Mousset is in-form and has had some close calls on goals to add to the ones he did score. Sheffield have a stronger defense (given up half as many goals over each teams’ last 10 matches) and are at home.

 

Premier League Wednesday with a Little PSG Action

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

60-51-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 7.45 units

Not gonna lie, tilting a little bit. Mad because I lost a parlay because of James Harden’s dunk that didn’t count. Seeing the board well lately, might as well ramp up the unit sizes and capitalize.

Norwich +0.5/PSG Parlay risking 3 units to win 3.81 units. Southampton haven’t won consecutive matches at home since March. The Canaries have been scoring goals lately. Teemu Pukki is a goal-scoring machine for club and country this season. The referee for this match, Kevin Friend, has been dishing out yellow cards at an impressive clip over his past 6 matches (4.5 a game). Norwich looked solid against Arsenal and Everton. I’ll take them to win or draw. PSG shouldn’t lose to Nantes. PSG are only two points clear at the top of the table. Just adding them to offset (Quavo) the juice and then some.

Aston Villa +1.5 at -110 for 3 units. Villa have covered in 4 of their past 5 matches. Manchester United scored from 2 corners in their match against Villa. I expect Villa to tighten up on defensive set plays in this one. Grealish and Mings are in-form. I think Villa are a better team than their table standings suggest. Value play here.

Liverpool -230 for 6 units. Liverpool are unbeaten in their past 31 league matches. Manchester City cut the lead to 8 points yesterday and looked dominant doing so. Liverpool push it back to 11 today. Had this line at -320 for the home team.

Tottenham +169 for 5 units. Tottenham/Manchester United Draw +235 for 5 units. Mourinho against his old club. A story as old as.. me. Manchester United’s defense has been slacking lately. Tottenham will score in this one. Alli has been given more freedom under Mourinho. He has been enjoying it as well, scored twice in their last match. Manchester United haven’t beat a top of the table team in a while, I dont expect it to happen today.

 

Premier League Sunday Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

58-50-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 18.44 units

Leicester at -169 for 6 units

Aston Villa at +598 for 3 units.

Villa/Manchester United Draw at +348 for 3 units. Late Post so no write-up. Wanted to wait for lineups to come out. If you click on this post and scroll to the bottom you can subscribe to the newsletter and never miss a play.

Thanksgiving Day Sports Recap – Egg Bowl/Piss Game, NFL, Europa League, and More

Ole Miss had a 4th and 24 or more on their side of the field down a touchdown with 50 seconds left. A 57 yard pass to Braylon Sanders and Ole Miss is back in business. Ole Miss got a short TD later and then Elijah Moore pissed in the EndZone like a dog. Ole Miss then missed the long extra point. Pissed Away the game.

What a start to rivalry week. That Mississippi State game got me hype for the next few days. I love this time of year. I will be traveling a lot over the next two weeks, so sorry if my posts are not as frequent. Thanks you to my readers. To the the trolls and haters, sorry I went 6-0 yesterday 🙂

Cole Beasley went off and hit all 3 of my prop bets. Revenge games are a thing. I try to stay away from player prop over because it has been proven that they are a little high on average. I liked that spot though. The Bills got down early against the Cowboys, but then shit-pumped them 26-15. Jason Garrrrrrreally bad coach still has a job somehow. Hey Jerry Jones, if you need a new puppet to coach your team, I am here for you.

The Bears beat the Lions in what was an incredibly average game. Mitch looked average. I bet the Bears and never felt good about it till it was over. Blough was actually pretty good. I though Matt Patricia was a defensive specialist? Oh no? That was Belichick. Word. The Saints beat the Julio Jones-less Falcons. Onside kicks galore in that game. Have to admit, I watched more of the Ole Miss Piss game than the Saints game… because as a Panthers fan, I hate both those teams.. but the Stiff arm on Matt Ryan was mad sexy. The North Carolina native Shy Tuttle is a grown man.

Manchester United and Arsenal lost their Europa League matches today. United have already qualified though.

Oh, and this goal was scored. Pink balls are cool. Lot better than the blue ones.

Gonzaga beat an undefeated Oregon team in college basketball today. North Carolina lost to an undefeated Michigan team today. UNC opened up the second half flat as Vincent Kompany’s forhead. Shoutout to Marquette for covering the game and second half spread.

 

Thanksgiving Week Parlays

3-8-1 on weekend parlay up 5.66 units

My parlay last weekend made it to Sunday, so hedging out was a real possibility. The Falcons and Browns were the Sunday plays. Falcons blew it. I am counting it as a push because hedging out should have happened to some winnings.

All the colleges are football plays. Hard to get lines that you can put into parlays with college basketball days in advance with all the tournaments going on.

Cant Win Parlay:

Bears/Jimmy Robertson (Snooker)/Saints/Buffalo -29/Boise State/App State/Real Madrid/Manchester City/Leipzig/Liverpool/Indiana/Wake Forest/Juventus/Aston Villa +1/Panthers/Eagles/Chiefs 

Risking 2 units to win 639.39 units.

Cant Lose Parlay:

Manchester United and Sevilla in Europa League/Bears/Iowa/Boise State/Manchester City/Liverpool/Tottenham/Oklahoma/Panthers/Eagles/Chiefs 

Risking 2 units to win 63.86 units.

 

Champions League Round 5 Recap and More Predictions – VAR and PSG Meet Again

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

58-50-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 13.36 units

Shoutout to Lewandowski for scoring 4 goals in the second half and making my Bayern over 2.5 goals bet hit easily. Mourinho and Tottenham got down 2-0, but Kane, Alli, and Son proved too much for Olympiacos. PSG thought they got a red card on Courtois at the end of the first half, but there was VAR decision that ruled a foul on Gueye, before PSG started making their move towards goal. Marcelo deff embellished the foul committed by Gueye, but should a small foul that the ref did not call in real-time affect a red card that happened 15 seconds later? It did today..

Dybala scored this goal against Oblak, one of the best goalkeepers in the World.

PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Juventus are the 6 teams that have advanced already. There are 12 spots remaining, who will earn them?
Leipzig -1 at -120 for 4 units. Leipzig can secure advancement with a win. Leipzig are averaging 3-1 wins over their past 5 home matches. Timo Werner and Sabitzer have been in-form for the Germans. Benfica are bottom of the group, but are playing well in the league. Benfica have lost by multiple goals in their last couple trips to Germany.
Barcelona -1 at -120 for 4 units. Barcelona can win the group with a win here. Dortmund played an unconvincing game 3-3 draw against Paderborn over the weekend. Dortmund needed two goals late to draw. Now Delaney has an ankle problem. Barcelona haven’t lost in their past 34 Champions League home games. Dortmund lost to Inter 2-0 in their last Champions League away game. Neither Dortmund nor Barcelona have found the form they had at this point last season, but one team has Messi and Suarez.
Chelsea at +105 for 2 units. Valencia had 8 players out with injury in their 2-1 lost against Betis. They are not going to all magically get healthy before this game with Chelsea. Chelsea are coming off of a tough 2-1 loss to Manchester City. Pulisic, Willian, CHO, Mount, and Abraham should be able to find some space against a solid Valencia defense. I just think Chelsea are playing better soccer now, than in September when they lost to Valencia 1-0.

 

Champions League Group Stage Round 5 Predictions – Jose Mourinho Returns

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

56-49-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.11 units

Here’s Tottenham’s first goal with Mourinho as manager. Notice how much Mourinho claps when Tottenham wins the ball back. People are asking, does Mourinho clap harder than Pete Carroll chews gum?

Tottenham/Manchester City/Galatasaray – Brugge over 2.5 Parlay risking 3 units to win 5.14 units. Jose Mourinho is not going to lose his first Champions League game as Tottenham manager. Tottenham looked good in their 3-2 win against West Ham. Man City and Pep love playing Shaktar. No Kyle Walker in goal today sadly. Both Brugge and Galatasaray have allowed 2 goals a game or more in this group stage. Both teams have to win, so I expect them to throw everything at this one.

Bayern over 2.5 goals at -140 for 3 units. Bayern can secure first in the group with a win against Fk Crvena zvezda. Bayern are averaging over 5 goals in their last 7 away matches. Lewandowski is the favorite to be top scorer in this competition (+275) and I expect him to add to his total today.

Leverkusen at -115 for 3 units. Volland is the best player on the pitch and he plays for Leverkusen. Bayer is favored on the road against Lokomotiv Moscow. Atletico Madrid lost to Leverkusen last time out. The Germans haven’t had a draw since February and they like to score. Moscow haven’t looked convincing lately. Partly betting this game because it is on tv, but I do like slight favorites on the road with the best player on their team. Fits my shitty soccer model.

Weekend Parlay Round 7 – Can’t Lose This One!!!

3-8 on weekend parlay up 5.66 units

Barcelona -1/Virginia/Minnesota/Leipzig/Cincinnati/Wake Forest/Boise State/Browns/Falcons risking 2 units to win 24.41 units.

All either football or futbol plays. All Money lines except for Barcelona. I talked about these plays in more depth on the Locks and Thoughts Podcast, which you can listen to below or download wherever you get your podcasts.