Category: Soccer

Arsenal and Chelsea are 5th and 6th respectively in the Premier League. Arsenal are one point behind Manchester United for the 4th Champions League spot. Chelsea are two points behind. Sevilla and Valencia are 6th and 7th respectively in La Liga. Sevilla are 5 points away from the Champions League spot. Valencia are 6 points away. Similarly, Frankfurt are 3 points out of the Champions League spots in the Bundesliga. The question for their managers are, do we rest in the first leg and focus on the league, dominate the first leg and then rest, or just rest and then focus on the Champions League spots in the league? Not an easy spot for coaches. Anyway, onto today’s games..

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32-26-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.41 units

Sevilla -1 at -132 for 4 units. Sevilla are outscoring opponents 24-1 at The Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in European play. I have been to a few games there in Sevilla and was disappointed that the beer was alcohol free… but Sevilla’s product on the field was great. Slavia Prague have never made it to this stage. Sevilla have won this competition 3 times. Ben Yedder and Sarabia are starting, which I love. Andre Silva is not starting for Sevilla, which I also love. Munir is getting another chance. Sevilla will want to dominate this game so they can rest a little in the second leg and focus on the league. I think they achieve that goal.

Villarreal/Zenit over 2 at -129 for 3 units. Zenit’s home games average over 2 goals a game in this competition. Zenit have been scoring most of their home goals after halftime lately.. so don’t get all nervous on me at halftime. Sardar Azmoun has found fine form since arriving in St. Petersburg recently. Dzyuba is always a threat. Villarreal’s last 4 games have all seen at least 2 goals. First legs overs are always a little dicey, but I like this one.

Arsenal Vs. Rennes over 2/ Inter Vs. Frankfurt over 2/ Chelsea Parlay risking 3 units at +140. Arsenal’s defense has been lacking ever since Holding went out with injury. Ben Arfa has been great this calendar year for Rennes. Aubameyang, Ozil, and Iwobi should provide enough creativity and pace to get a goal. Rennes’ last 7 games have all seen at least two goals. Rennes impressed me against Real Betis. If you don’t know why I love Frankfurt overs, then you haven’t been reading me. The Recap: Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller.

Chelsea winning this competition would do wonders for Maurizio Sarri and his job security. Granted, winning this competition only kept Mourinho around in Manchester for a little while longer. I personally don’t think Chelsea will finish in the top 4 with road games at Liverpool and United still on the schedule. Also, I’m 100% sure Hazard will leave for Real Madrid or other greener pastures this offseason if Chelsea do not make Champions League. They go for it and get the win at home today against Dynamo Kiev. Kiev won the easiest group and then beat Olympiakos to get to this stage. Their “luck” runs out today.

Tottenham were up 3-0 on Dortmund after the 1st leg. They won the 2nd leg 1-0 behind this Harry Kane goal. He doesn’t miss those. Dortmund need to figure out their defense quickly if they want to win the Bundesliga. They are beating Bayern on just goal difference after being up in 1st for pretty much the entire season. Dortmund have gone from the hottest team in Europe to possibly no trophies this season. Wild. Tottenham barely made it out of the group, but now they seem to be rolling in this tournament.

Ajax played better than Real Madrid in the 1st leg, which I wrote about previously; however, they did not get the result they needed losing 2-1 at home. Allowing Real Madrid to get 2 away goals made many think they dug themselves too deep of a hole against the 3 time defending champs. Ramos couldn’t play because of a card suspension and Ronaldo is in Italy. Ajax didn’t care.

Ajax won the game 4-1 behind Tadic, Ziyech, Neres, and all their youngsters. Tadic’s 2 assists were simply sublime. Assist 1. Assist 2. Oh yeah, and then he scored his own. Varane missed an easy early header that hit the post and before you know it Ajax were up 2-0. Lucas and Junior Vinicius had to be subbed off early due to injury, which spelled doom for Real Madrid. Real Madrid pays more for Gareth Bale than Ajax does for their entire first team squad… and reserves… and youth team combined. Unreal stuff from the great young Dutch team.

Schone’s silly good free kick was just icing on the cake for Ajax and their fans.

Porto were down 2-1 after the 1st leg against Roma, but they won the second leg at home 3-1 in overtime to move on. This was the “weakest” matchup at this stage, but Porto has enough attacking options to cause some trouble in the next round. Pepe and Dzeko had this comically cute moment. I like Dzeko, but that is embarrassing.

Manchester United lost to PSG 2-0 at Old Trafford and the comeback in Paris seemed insurmountable with no Darmian, Herrera, Jones, Lingard, Martial, Mata, Matic, Pogba, Sanchez, or Valencia. Manchester United started a midfield of Fred, McTominay, and Young and beat PSG 3-1 to advance. Rashford and Lukaku outplayed Mbappe and Di Maria. I do feel a little bad for Di Maria going out against his former club here. He did not have a good time in Manchester (house got robbed, wife was unhappy), but United fans really seem to dislike him too much IMO. I am United fan simply because Ibra played for them… But Ole Gunnar Solskjær is making me more and more of a fan by the day.

How the hell was Mourinho’s United not scoring goals in bunches with Rashford, Pogba, and Lukaku? Lukaku scored the first goal with great pace and betting finishing. You could tell PSG were nervous after that.. Lukaku then scored a second on Buffon’s poor goalkeeping. It is almost like Buffon doesn’t want to win this competition. Fitting that PSG signed him really. Finally, United were awarded a penalty for this, which Rashford put home. Absolutely amazing week of Champions League football. Until next week…

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

32-26-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.41 units

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

30-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.75 units

AC Milan at -194 for 5 units. Milan is on an 8 match unbeaten run. Milan beat Sassuolo 4-1 the last time they met. That was before Krzysztof Piątek arrived in Milan. Krzysztof has 7 goals in 7 appearances for AC Milan. The ‘Rossoneri’ have only lost twice at home all season. Castillejo, Kessie, Suso, and others are finding more pace since the addition of Piątek. Milan stay hot at home.

Bayern Leverkusen at -222 for 3 units. Leverkusen have been playing great football of late, but the results just haven’t quite been there. They lost on away goals to Krasnodar in the Europa League and to Dortmund in the league 3-2, which has exemplified this problem with not getting the result. Now that they are bounced from Europa, they can focus on getting top 5. They are two points out of that Europa Group spot as of writing. Volland, Bailey, Brandt, and Havertz are all fun to watch for Leverkusen. Freiburg have not lost in over 2/3rds of the games that they are an underdog in… Going against that stat here.

Sevilla at -103 for 3 units. Huesca and Sevilla are not on the same level. Sevilla > Huesca. The reason this line is so “good” is well because, even though it pains me to say as a Sevillista, Sevilla sucks on the road. Truth hurts. Sevilla have to win these games if they want to make the Champions League spots. Sevilla could just win the Europa again, but beating Huesca seems like the simpler task. Andre Silva’s 35-million-Euro-buy-option was declined by Sevilla for this summer and he will return to AC Milan. Piątek makes that awkward for him. Silva will 100% end his cold streak and score here if Pablo Machin plays him now that Sevilla has moved on.

Monaco at +137 for 2 units. Monaco are hot. New year, New Club.

Manchester United/Manchester City Parlay at -133 for 2 units. Lingard, Mata, and Herrera all have thigh injuries for United, but they still have a more talented squad than Southampton. 6 of the 8 league goals Paul Pogba has scored since Ole Gunnar Solskjær came along, have been at Old Trafford. United have only lost to PSG since Ole Gunnar was appointed in December. Southampton lack the defense to stop United’s options. City did not impress me in their last game against West Ham, although if Silva buries his relatively easy chance in the 3rd minute, that game is completely different. Vegas has them favored by a lot though so I will trust Vegas on this one. Also, Arsenal just dropped la bomba de cinco on Bournemouth. City will score.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 17.56 units

Barcelona at +142 for 7 units.

Barcelona to advance at -131 for 9 units. One team has Messi and one doesn’t. Real Madrid tied the first leg at Camp Nou 1-1, but Messi didn’t start. Messi started against Sevilla this past weekend… Here is a video of Messi’s highlights in that game. I’m convinced Tommy Wiseau, Messi, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are from different planets.

 

Speaking of form, Real Madrid are in solid form. They have won 11 and lost 3 this calendar year. Casemiro, Kroos, and Modric are still one of the best midfields in the World. There are a couple reasons I don’t like Madrid today: Ajax were able to press Real Madrid to death in the first half of their Champions League game. Ajax had nothing but an offsides goal and a strike that went off the post to show for it though. If Real are that sloppy and unable to play out of the back against Barca, buenas noches. Caravajal was especially poor in that game in defense. If Marcelo starts over Reguilon, Messi is going to feast. Secondly, Messi and Suarez found their form in their last game vs Sevilla. Suarez has been in a bit of a rut away from home (hasn’t scored in Champions league away since Obama was President), but that is why that late goal vs Sevilla was big for him. Vinicius Junior will have his moments, Benzema is clincal, and Varane/Ramos can thwart most attacks away; however, Barcelona’s ability to attack out-wide and Messi will see them through.

Messi Stats vs Madrid: 39 games 26 goals 14 assists

 

If you missed the EFL Carabao Cup, don’t feel too bad for missing the first 2 hours. It got real exciting after that though. Chelsea’s manager Sarri tried to take off Kepa Arrizabalaga right before Pks. Kepa was simply like nah fam I’m good. Willy Caballero was the keeper Sarri wanted to come on for penalties. Caballero used to play for Manchester City, so he knows some of their penalty tendencies presumably. Also, Caballero saved penalties for City to win this very tournament in 2016. Kepa is one of the most expensive keepers in the World. Keepers of his quality don’t grow on trees, but I have never seen a player just refuse a manager. Kepa didn’t save this pk after refusing to go off… Aguero knows he got lucky. Manchester City win the trophy. I was actually cheering for the underdog Chelsea in this one… Oh Chelsea also have an incoming transfer ban on the way for “international transfer of minors”. Fun times at Chelsea.

Onto today’s match:

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-22-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 12.56 units

Red Bull Leipzig at -123 for 5 units. Leipzig’s defense is too good for Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim scored 3 goals in the last 15 minutes against Dortmund. Leipzig are well-equipped to defend against Hoffenheim’s long balls and crosses that haunted Dortmund. Hoffenheim do score a large portion of their goals off of those type of plays. Leipzig have won 4 in a row (3 clean sheets in that span). Leipzig have won 7 games at home this Bundesliga season, scoring first in all them janks. Poulsen, Werner, and Sabitzer have 26 of Leipzig’s 41 goals on the season. Poulsen has scored twice in each of the last 4 Bundesliga games he scored in. Hoffenheim are a solid away team, but they just don’t matchup well with Leipzig.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.59 units

Not losing 3 days in a row. I won’t have it. All 3 of these teams should be more heavily favored IMO.

Frankfurt -1 at +189 for 3 units.

Frankfurt +0 at -212 for 5 units. Frankfurt have drawn 5 matches in a row against solid competition. Frankfurt were up a man almost all of last game against Shakthar and only pulled out the draw. Frankfurt did give up a pk. The game will play out differently in Germany. Luke Jovic and Sebastien Haller should do enough to secure the win for Frankfurt. I like the -1 because if Frankfurt gets up, Shakhtar will send more men forward, leading to a possible 2 or 3 goal win for the Germans.

Real Betis at -169 for 6 units. Betis dominated the first leg away, but only tied the game 3-3. Rennes looked poor in their only game since then. Betis is the better team and that should show up in Sevilla tonight. Giovani Lo Celso has 11 goals this season for Betis and the “Mexican Messi” Lainez has been coming into form.

Bayern Leverkusen at -234 for 5 units. Leverkusen have only lost 3 matches since the beginning of December. ‘Die Werkself’ are in great attacking form. Krasnodar have lost the last 3 times they have traveled to Germany. Havertz, Wendell, Brandt, Volland, and Bailey will be too much offense for Krasnodar.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 1.41 units

Lazio/Sevilla over 2.5 at -115 for 6 units. Sevilla have never lost a two-legged UEFA affair when they won the first leg away. Lazio have to score here if they want to move on after losing at home 1-0 last week. Ciro Immobile should be healthy enough to play in this one. Immobile had a few goals in his short stint for Sevilla back in 15/16. Lazio are banged up, but they have to attack in this one. Sevilla are excellent at counter-attacking. Wober and Banega are out due to card accumulation for Sevilla, but that should only help the over. This should be an open game.

Juventus +0.5 at -225 for 5 units. The over/under is set at 1.5. That number is so low they are daring us to take the over. I just don’t bet against Ronaldo in the Champions League. It is that simple for me.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

25-19-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 1.04 units

Bayern Munich +0.5 at -124 for 8 units. Liverpool have been declining in form over the past month, which is understandable when you consider the high level they were playing at to start the season. Bayern started this season out slow, but they have been picking it up over the past 3 months. Liverpool has wins against Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth this year. They have lost or drawn against Man City, Wolves, Leicester, and West Ham. Bayern have lost to only Leverkusen and Dortmund since October.

Lewandowski is the top scorer in this competition with 8 goals. Van Dijk is out due to yellow card accumulation. Robert Lewandowski should be able to find some space without one of the best defenders in the World playing. Lovren is out too, which means Fabinho may have to step up defensively. I worry about Bayern at the back too. Salah and Mane are too nice, but Lewandowski on Fabinho is the biggest mismatch. I will side with the team with the biggest advantage and that is in better form to tie or win.

Barcelona at -132 for 3 units. Lyon and Barcelona were unbeaten in the group stages. Lyon has won games against Man City and PSG this season. They are no slouches. No Nabil Fekir in the lineup for Lyon sadly. Suarez should be back in the lineup for Barca. Messi is still Messi. If Lyon was at full-strength, I would prolly stay away, but Barca has the attacking advantage and the experience to see this one through.