Category: Soccer

The noteworthy January transfer window transactions:

Christian Pulisic/Dortmund has signed an American record 73 million dollar deal with Chelsea. Chelsea will loan him back to Dortmund until the end of the season. Good business by Dortmund. Dortmund have an amazing scouting department. A lot of Chelsea fans will be popping up in the United States, especially near Hershey Pennsylvania, where Christian is from. I have some friends that are Fulham fans because of Dempsey… Chelsea is a lot easier of a team to be a fan of. Thorgan Hazard is rumored to be the replacement for Pulisic at Dortmund. Eden Hazard still hasn’t signed a new contract with Chelsea… is a move to Real Madrid looming?

Samir Nasri signed with West Ham after his 18-month doping ban. Nasri has played well at Marseille, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Sevilla. If he can find some solid form, he could add some needed creativity to the West Ham attack.

The 36-year-old-free-kick-taking Naldo has signed with Monaco. He adds some experience to a young, underachieving Monaco club. Thierry Henry needs his Monaco club to start playing better futbol if he wants to manage there next season.

Monaco are in the news again with the signing of Cesc Fabregas. Thierry Henry is coaching Cesc Fabregas for a Ligue 1 team. If that doesn’t make you feel old, then you should tell the kids on the playground about this site. Fabregas didn’t seem to fit at Chelsea recently, but it is hard to provide service for attackers like Willian and Morata, who look like they couldn’t be bothered to actually play soccer. Monaco is doing all they can to get out of 19th place and the relegation zone in France. Cesc should help.

Manolo Gabbiadini, who has the Peakeist Blindiest name in World Futbol, has left Southampton for a return to the Italian club, Sampdoria, for the fee of 12 million Euros. Sampdoria get some help at top to supplement the aging Fabio Quagliarella.

Brahim Diaz has been signed by Real Madrid for a 17.3 million Euro fee from Man City. Mahrez cost 60 million Euro and was always going to play more than Diaz. I’m sure some City fans would rather develop Diaz than play Mahrez, but Mahrez is no slouch. Real Madrid could use him with Isco falling out of favor and Bale being injured. Diaz could be a better Asensio one day.. and I love Asensio.

Real Betis has signed Diego Lainez from Club America for a 14 million Euro fee. Lainez is a quick left winger, who should add some needed creativity outside for Betis for the years to come. The Mexican Messi will have plenty of opportunity on the right and left wing.

AC Milan have signed the former Fluminese youngster, Lucas Paqueta, for a 35 million Euro fee. Milan’s future looks brighter.

Paulinho, Sandro Wagner, Leo Baptistao, and Talisco have both chased the money and gone to China. Espanyol will miss Baptistao’s goal scoring.

In one of the weirder transfer signing announcements I have seen lately, Burnley signed Peter Crouch. He will be a solid target man for them and a great guy to have around the club.

Leicester sign Youri Tielemans from Monaco. Youri is 21 years old. Hamza and Youri could form a solid young midfield for Leicester. The Kante and Drinkwater days are gone, but Leicester seems to be building a solid midfield again.

Crystal Palace sign Michi Batshuayi on loan from Chelsea. Michi did not do much at Valencia, but with Zaha’s service, he should be able to find some goals. Palace are hoping he finds his Dortmund form.

Newcastle United have signed Miguel Almiron from Atlanta FC. Miguel is a quick, solid passer that has been one of the best player in the MLS over the past few seasons. Newcastle fans are just happy they beat Man City. A record signing is icing on the cake. It is a league record fee for the MLS. He is a true #10 that Newcastle desperately need.

Arsenal have signed Denis Suarez from Barcelona. I think they signed the wrong Suarez… Denis will help their midfield I think, but he doesn’t seem to be a clear upgrade as of now. When Ramsey leaves this summer, Denis will play a larger role at the club I presume. The option-to-buy is smart business for Arsenal. He could go all Paco Alcacer. People forget Man City signed Denis Suarez when he was 16. This signing has to make Juventus fans happy because they are that much closer to getting Ramsey now.

Wolves have signed Jonny Castro from Atletico permanently. Castro can play left or right back and he never stops running. He is worth the 20 million as players with his skill and work rate are hard to find.

Valencia have signed Ruben Soriano from Alaves to hopefully find some goals. Valencia have more ties at this point in the season than I can ever remember a team having. They need all the finishing they can get.

PSG signed Leandro Paredes from Zenit for 40 million Euros. Paredes will slot in nicely next to Verratti. PSG will win the league with this signing (and without it). This feels like the first midfielder PSG has signed in years. Good business.

I think that pretty much covers the window. If I missed a big signing just mention it in the comments and call me dumb. Thanks!

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

6-7-2 on Soccer in 2019 down 3.81 units

Sevilla +2.5 at -167 for 10 units. No Dembele, Umtiti, or Rafinha for Barcelona. Let’s be real, Messi is all that matters. Sevilla won the first leg 2-0, but Messi didn’t play. Sevilla have lost to Barcelona by more than 3 only once in their past 6 meetings. This is going to be an exciting-up-and-down fixture. You know what makes it more exciting? Wagering a lot on it.

In all seriousness, Sevilla have scored 7 goals in their past 2 games (including one against Barcelona), thus it will be hard for Barcelona to keep a clean sheet. Sevilla are arguably the best counter-attacking team in Spain now that Ronaldo is gone. Pablo Machin and his 3-5-2 setup are made for 2-0 second leg leads. If Machin’s men get a goal here, this bet wins. Full Disclosure… I am always nervous betting against the best soccer player ever.. but as an old man told me at a blackjack table on a casino cruise yesteryear “scared money don’t make money”.

Real Betis to advance at -226 for 4 units. Betis got the much needed away goal. Espanyol doesn’t have the defense on the road to move on in this tie. Real Betis will score.

Roma +0.5 at -200 for 3 units. Bryan Cristante and Steven Nzonzi should play for Roma as they are banned because of cards for the weekend clash against Milan. There are two main reasons I like this play today… 1. Roma plays a lot better when Dzeko plays, and they win most games he scores in. He is in-form. 2. Roma needs a trophy. The Coppa may not be as important as a top 4 finish (which Roma is on brink of losing), but Roma is in a trophy drought and anything to pick up morale will help.

Chelsea at -147 for 2 units. Bournemouth have lost their past 5 meetings against top-6 competition at home. Chelsea fits that mold. Hazard has 4 goals in his last 3 visits to Vitality Stadium. Sarri said Hazard can leave Chelsea if he wants, Real Madrid could use him…

Crystal Palace +0.5 at -167 for 4 units. Palace are scoring an average of 1.4 goals away from home. Palace just beat an injury-depleted Tottenham and only lost to Liverpool by 1. I’m not saying injury-depleted to take away from Palace’s win, just saying it has to be taken into account when I look at the matchup. Southampton are hot under new manager Ralph Hasenhüttl, but Zaha and Townsend should do enough for Palace here. I think these teams are evenly-matched, so I will take the value of the underdog.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

6-4-2 on Soccer in 2019 up 7.19 units

Haven’t written about soccer in over 2 weeks to focus on the Australian Open, NFL Playoffs, and Basketball. I was still watching soccer, just didn’t have the time to really look at the numbers. Now that the AO and NFL are just about over… I can refocus on hockey, soccer, MMA, golf, and other various sports that I degen like snooker.

Alaves/Vallecano Draw at +237 for 4 units.

Alaves at +124 for 4 units.

Alaves/Vallecano over 2 at -162 for 3 units. Alaves haven’t lost a La Liga game at home all season. Mendizorrotza has been a good home to Alaves this season. Alaves is right on the edge of making Europa/Champions League for the first time in over a decade. Rayo Vallecano have only won 2 games on the road this season. Vallecano also have the lowest scoring away team in the league. Borja Baston has two goals in his last 3 for Alaves. Alaves play a more free-flowing-fun-to-watch brand of futbol and I expect that to continue today. The overs have been harder to hit than not for Alaves at home this season, but I like this spot.

 

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

4-4-2 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.11 units

Leicester City at -112 for 3 units. Southampton haven’t got a quality win since they beat Arsenal almost a month ago. Leicester manager Claude Puel has never lost to his old club. Vardy and Maddison will not give Southampton’s back 4 a rest. Leicester win at home.

Liverpool -1 at -214 for 3 units. Mo Salah scores for fun against Brighton. Liverpool has lost two in a row. Klopp won’t lose thrice in a row.

 

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-3-2 on Soccer in 2019 down 2.49 units

Sevilla at +215 for 4 units.

Sevilla/Bilbao draw at +225 for 3 units. After seeing the lineups… Sevilla should be favored. Both teams are rotating heavy for this midweek match, but no Munian, Inaki Williams, Benat, de Marcos, Dani Garcia, Herrerin, and Inigo Martinez in the starting lineup for Bilbao. Sevilla are sitting some stars too, but Andre Silva, Promes, Franco Vazquez, and Nolito should be able to do enough to secure the away draw. I wanted to bet the over 2, but I Bilbao will find it tough to score and Sevilla’s offense seems more deadly when Ben Yedder or Sarabia play.

Barcelona at -203 for 4 units. Barcelona is hot, Levante is not. I still don’t think Messi and Barca have forgiven Levante for ruining their invincible season last year (even though they beat Levante (5-0) this year. I like this spot if Messi plays.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-2-1 on Soccer in 2019 up 0.51 units

Atletico Madrid/Girona over 2 for 3 units.

Atletico Madrid at -127 for 3 units. Last 3 matches between these two have pushed or gone over the 2 goals. Girona’s defense has looked vulnerable in recent matches. Atletico and Sevilla just played to a 1-1 draw, but the game had a lot more chances than that scoreline entails. This is Atletico Madrid’s best chance at a trophy this season, they will field their best team. The rumor is Stuani, Pedro Porro, Bono, and Juanpe are all resting for the weekend for Girona. Atletico take care os business with a 2-1 away win.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-2 on Soccer in 2019 up 2.51 units

Atletico Madrid/Sevilla over 2 at -144 for 3 units. 4 of the past 5 matches between these two have gone over this number. Betting Atletico overs is a dangerous game, but I think there is a good chance the over hits today. Sevilla have scored 27 goals over their past 10 home games. Atl. Madrid’s defense isn’t quite as good on the road. Ben Yedder and Andre Silva will be a handful for Madrid’s backline. Sevilla can be countered and Griezmann is the type of forward Sevilla struggles containing. This game ends 2-1.

Barcelona/Real Madrid -1 Parlay at +131 for 2 units. Santi Cazorla scored twice for Villarreal to tie Real Madrid last time out. It was the first time Real blew a halftime lead all season. Courtois has kept a clean sheet in 5 of 7 home appearances. Real has beat Sociedad 9 times in a row at home, averaging over 3.5 goals a game in that span. Bale and Asensio are out, but Modric, Kroos, Benzema, and Isco should get it done.

Getafe is hot, but Barcelona is still Barcelona. Ousmane Dembele has 7 La Liga goals this season. Only Real Madrid and Atletico have scored more than one goal against Getafe this season. Barcelona are the only team in the league better than them two. Barcelona have 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 visits to Coliseum Alfonso Perez. Girona dominated possession and should have beat Getafe last time out, Barcelona is a lot better than Girona… Oh yeah and Messi.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

2-0 on Soccer in 2019 up 6.35 units 

Liverpool +1/Real Madrid -1 Parlay risking 4 units to win 9.32 units. Kroos and Modric are back healthy for Real. Sounds weird to say on January 3rd, but Real Madrid have to win these games if they want to challenge Barcelona, Atletico, and Sevilla for the league title. Madrid should have some confidence after winning the Club World Cup (again). Villarreal tied a bad Huesca team last time out. Real Madrid are tied with Huesca for most away goals given up in the league. Madrid will focus on defense and get a clean sheet.

Liverpool is a more than a 2 to 1 underdog. Am I the only one that thinks Liverpool should be favored? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!

In all seriousness though, Kevin De Bruyne and Fernandinho are both back in the lineup for City, but neither is in form. They both need to stay healthy and get a run of games before I trust City against a team as good as Liverpool. Salah has scored or assisted 20 Premier League goals this season (most in the league). It is January 3rd. Liverpool have a scoreline of 18-2 in their last 5 Premier League games. They played Manchester United and Arsenal in that 5 game stretch – Silly good. City have struggled to score against Leicester and Crystal Palace and now they go against the best defender in the World in van Dijk. I’m going to side with the hotter team, instead of betting on them to trip up. Also, I don’t buy the notion that City need this win more and that will show on the pitch… Liverpool know if they get all 3 points here, they are on their way to a title.

The noteworthy January transfer window transactions:

Christian Pulisic/Dortmund has signed an American record 73 million dollar deal with Chelsea. Chelsea will loan him back to Dortmund until the end of the season. Good business by Dortmund. Dortmund have an amazing scouting department. A lot of Chelsea fans will be popping up in the United States, especially near Hershey Pennsylvania, where Christian is from. I have some friends that are Fulham fans because of Dempsey… Chelsea is a lot easier of a team to be a fan of. Thorgan Hazard is rumored to be the replacement for Pulisic at Dortmund. Eden Hazard still hasn’t signed a new contract with Chelsea… is a move to Real Madrid looming?

Keylor Navas has signed a 16 million Euro deal with Arsenal. Good business for Arsenal. Navas makes their first 11 better for less than 20 million. Have to do it.

Samir Nasri signed with West Ham after his 18-month doping ban. Nasri has played well at Marseille, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Sevilla. If he can find some solid form, he could add some needed creativity to the West Ham attack.

The 36-year-old-free-kick-taking Naldo has signed with Monaco. He adds some experience to a young, underachieving Monaco club. Thierry Henry needs his Monaco club to start playing better futbol if he wants to manage there next season.