Soccer

Champions League Round 5 Recap and More Predictions – VAR and PSG Meet Again

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

58-50-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 13.36 units

Shoutout to Lewandowski for scoring 4 goals in the second half and making my Bayern over 2.5 goals bet hit easily. Mourinho and Tottenham got down 2-0, but Kane, Alli, and Son proved too much for Olympiacos. PSG thought they got a red card on Courtois at the end of the first half, but there was VAR decision that ruled a foul on Gueye, before PSG started making their move towards goal. Marcelo deff embellished the foul committed by Gueye, but should a small foul that the ref did not call in real-time affect a red card that happened 15 seconds later? It did today..

Dybala scored this goal against Oblak, one of the best goalkeepers in the World.

PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Juventus are the 6 teams that have advanced already. There are 12 spots remaining, who will earn them?
Leipzig -1 at -120 for 4 units. Leipzig can secure advancement with a win. Leipzig are averaging 3-1 wins over their past 5 home matches. Timo Werner and Sabitzer have been in-form for the Germans. Benfica are bottom of the group, but are playing well in the league. Benfica have lost by multiple goals in their last couple trips to Germany.
Barcelona -1 at -120 for 4 units. Barcelona can win the group with a win here. Dortmund played an unconvincing game 3-3 draw against Paderborn over the weekend. Dortmund needed two goals late to draw. Now Delaney has an ankle problem. Barcelona haven’t lost in their past 34 Champions League home games. Dortmund lost to Inter 2-0 in their last Champions League away game. Neither Dortmund nor Barcelona have found the form they had at this point last season, but one team has Messi and Suarez.
Chelsea at +105 for 2 units. Valencia had 8 players out with injury in their 2-1 lost against Betis. They are not going to all magically get healthy before this game with Chelsea. Chelsea are coming off of a tough 2-1 loss to Manchester City. Pulisic, Willian, CHO, Mount, and Abraham should be able to find some space against a solid Valencia defense. I just think Chelsea are playing better soccer now, than in September when they lost to Valencia 1-0.

 

Basketball

NBA Tuesday – Clippers at Mavericks Prediction

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2017/18 up 9.28 units

30-28-2 on NBA in 2018/19 up 4.16 units 

6-7-1 on NBA in 2019/20 down 7.31 units

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Clippers at -122 for 4 units. Mavericks are 11-5, but have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA so far. It gets tougher tonight for them. The Clippers have a top-10 offense and defense. Paul George came back last week and the Clippers haven’t lost since. Doncic is a stud, but I think Kawhi, PBev, and PG13 can do enough to slow him down. Beverly has been playing better on offense of late. I like the Clippers depth and top-tier defense to stop Doncic enough for the win.

Basketball

College Basketball November 26th

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

9-12-1 this season down 4.66 units

Michigan State lost to Virginia Tech last night. Landers Nolley II and Virginia Tech were chucking up 3s. Mike Young’s Hokies were not supposed to be 6-0 in his first year, but here they are.

VT shot less 3s and made more 3s than the Spartans. Winston is not 100% yet. It’s Turkey season, the Gobble Gobble Boys had to win against the Spartans.

Wisconsin lost to Richmond. Wisconsin did not have enough players that could get a bucket in the half-court. Richmond did. As a VCU fan, it hurts me to say this, but Richmond has 4 good players in Nick Sherod, Jacob Gilyard, Blake Francis, and Grant Golden. The Richmond/VCU games should be fun this year. Richmond and VCU are both undefeated after 6 games.

Old Dominion/Auburn/William & Mary Parlay risking 4 units to win 7.77 units. Washington State is in a transition year. Old Dominion has lost their past two games to in-state rivals James Madison an George Mason. I lost about 8 units on this ODU team against JMU. If ODU loses this one, I am quitting them cold turkey. CJ Elleby is about all Washington State has. Malik Curry, Xavier Green, and Aaron Carver get the job done for the Monarchs.

Samir Doughty and Auburn are not going to lose to Richmond. The line is -475, but it should be closer to -600. William & Mary’s two 7-footers go up against Morehead State tonight. Both W&M and Morehead State are 4-2. William & Mary have lost to Stanford and Oklahoma. Morehead State doesn’t have the size to stop the Tribe down-low.

Wichita State -4 at -112 for 3 units. South Carolina has the size advantage on the Shockers. Erik Stevenson and Jamarius Burton are smart guards for Wichita State. The Shockers will utilize drive and kicks and the 3 ball to neutralize the Gamecocks size advantage. South Carolina only shoots 27.5% from deep. Wichita State plays solid interior defense. I like this spot.

Northern Iowa +6 at -110 for 3 units. Cancun Challenge continues. Toughest game for West Virginia and UNI here. West Virginia has the size advantage, but UNI shoots 11 more 3s a game and makes them at a higher %. Will the shots fall on a neutral court? I think they will for UNI.

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BYU +11 at -110 for 3 units. BYU is coming off an 11 point win against UCLA. Kansas is far more talented, but TJ Haws and BYU are shooting the ball well lately. BYU is an old team, most of their players are juniors and seniors who have already completed their mission trips. BYU is experienced and can make 3s. Kansas has the size advantage, but I like BYU to keep it close in Maui.

Clemson +5 at -115 for 2 units. Clemson plays Colorado in the MGM Resorts title game in Las Vegas tonight. Colorado has a great defense and a bad offense. Clemson has a good defense, and a below-average offense. Could be a nasty 11:30 PM EST game, so why not bet the underdog? Tevin Mack, the former Texas and Alabama player, is Clemson’s best player this season. He is shooting 44% from deep. If Clemson are winning at halftime, I may just take Colorado -3 or whatever it is at halftime and go to bed. I stay up later than Tony Kornheiser, but 1 AM may be pushing it with college basketball and Champions League starting at Noon at Wednesday.

Soccer

Champions League Group Stage Round 5 Predictions – Jose Mourinho Returns

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

56-49-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.11 units

Here’s Tottenham’s first goal with Mourinho as manager. Notice how much Mourinho claps when Tottenham wins the ball back. People are asking, does Mourinho clap harder than Pete Carroll chews gum?

Tottenham/Manchester City/Galatasaray – Brugge over 2.5 Parlay risking 3 units to win 5.14 units. Jose Mourinho is not going to lose his first Champions League game as Tottenham manager. Tottenham looked good in their 3-2 win against West Ham. Man City and Pep love playing Shaktar. No Kyle Walker in goal today sadly. Both Brugge and Galatasaray have allowed 2 goals a game or more in this group stage. Both teams have to win, so I expect them to throw everything at this one.

Bayern over 2.5 goals at -140 for 3 units. Bayern can secure first in the group with a win against Fk Crvena zvezda. Bayern are averaging over 5 goals in their last 7 away matches. Lewandowski is the favorite to be top scorer in this competition (+275) and I expect him to add to his total today.

Leverkusen at -115 for 3 units. Volland is the best player on the pitch and he plays for Leverkusen. Bayer is favored on the road against Lokomotiv Moscow. Atletico Madrid lost to Leverkusen last time out. The Germans haven’t had a draw since February and they like to score. Moscow haven’t looked convincing lately. Partly betting this game because it is on tv, but I do like slight favorites on the road with the best player on their team. Fits my shitty soccer model.

Football/Soccer

Weekend Parlay Round 7 – Can’t Lose This One!!!

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3-8 on weekend parlay up 5.66 units

Barcelona -1/Virginia/Minnesota/Leipzig/Cincinnati/Wake Forest/Boise State/Browns/Falcons risking 2 units to win 24.41 units.

All either football or futbol plays. All Money lines except for Barcelona. I talked about these plays in more depth on the Locks and Thoughts Podcast, which you can listen to below or download wherever you get your podcasts.

Football

Thursday Night Football Prediction – Colts at Texans

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

34-44 on the NFL this season down 2.98 units

Texans at -195 for 3 units. No Marlon Mack. Nelson’s keg stand was awesome. The Colts o-line does worry me, but I trust Watson to bounce back after the Ravens loss. Refs will help out Hopkins and the Texans after missing an obvious call last week. Will Fuller and Kenny Stills will stretch the field for Houston. Watson is 11-4 at home. Watt being out has hurt the Texans’ run defense, but Mack is out on the Colts’ side. If the Texans stop the run, they will win.

Deshaun Watson over 26.5 rushing yards at +101 for 4 units. Watson is averaging 29.1 yards a game on the season. Watson hasn’t had his sweet highlight 40 yard run yet this season. He’s due.

Basketball

NBA November 20th – Hornets at Nets with No Kyrie Irving

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2017/18 up 9.28 units

30-28-2 on NBA in 2018/19 up 4.16 units 

6-6-1 on NBA in 2019/20 down 1.31 units

Hornets +4 at -105 for 7 units. I hate betting on my favorite NBA team, but this year is different! I love Kemba, but the Hornets have been more fun to watch with the youngsters playing. Caris LeVert, Wilson Chandler, and Kyrie Irving are out for Brooklyn. Oh yeah, KD is out too. Miles Bridges and PJ Washington can ball out in the frontcourt for the Hornets. Devonte’ Graham is averaging 18.3 points a game. Graham leads the Eastern Conference with 49 3-pointers. He is top-10 in assists this season too. Rozier had a shitty game against the Raptors, but he will play better tonight. Brooklyn played terribly against the Pacers without Irving. The Hornets are coming off of a bad loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn’s defense, shooting, and rebounding has been below league average over the last 10 days. Not a good combination of things. Going with the healthier, “better against the spread” team here.