Sportsologists

11-10-3 on golf in 2018 up 11.62 units

Bias Warning: Plays here are influenced by Quail Hollow last week as it was the first tournament I watched since the Masters.

Henrik Stenson over Justin Rose at -110 for 3 units. The Swedish Stenson has been playing some excellent golf lately. Stenson has 3 straight top 10 finishes. Stenson has better odds to win the tournament. Driving accuracy is paramount at TPC Sawgrass and that may be Stenson’s greatest strength. The Swede is a past champ and this course plays to no style in particular, so I will take the player with better ball striking and that is in better form. In basketball, you gotta shoot well to win games. In golf, you gotta strike the ball well to win tournaments.

Jason Day over Justin Thomas at -110 for 2 units. Day has some course success here and won Wells Fargo without his best stuff. I expect him to keep it up.

Jason Day over Jordan Spieth at -105 for 2 units. Day has been at the tournament since early Monday morning working on all aspects of his game. I just expect him to keep rolling all the way to the U.S. Open. Also, Day won this tournament in 2016.

Ian Poulter over Tony Finau at +120 for 2 units. If you followed me back in March, you know I love betting Poulter. The Dell match play tournament was where I made a lot of money betting on Poulter (and against Finau). Both these guys are 55/1 to win this tournament, so I will take the hotter player at plus money. Finau has missed this cut twice as well.

 

 

9-6 on tennis up 2.43 units

Milos Raonic ML at -280 for 4 units. Canadian battle here. Raonic beat third seed Grigor Dimitrov 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 in the last round behind 12 aces. Raonic hadn’t beat Dimitrov since 2011 so I was surprised by that result. Raonic looked a lot better than I suspected coming off his most recent knee injury. Shapovalov is the younger Canadian, but he models his game more after Nadal (both left handed) than he does Raonic. Milos has the advantage at the net, on the serve, and with forehand volleys in my opinion. Shapovalov does have some speed and exciting groundstrokes, but I do not think it will be enough here.

Raonic – Shapovalov under 23 for 2 units. I just think Milos wins in straight sets because of everything I mentioned above and he has more experience.

Del Potro ML at -395 for 2 units. Just going to keep riding Del Potro. I think Del Potro is the 3rd best player in the world at the moment. Lajovic has impressed me in Madrid, but not enough to think he will beat an opponent of this quality.

24-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 2.46 units

Celtics -1 for 2 units. Celtics looked complacent in Game 4. I do not think that will happen again. I expect a gentleman’s sweep tonight. Jayson Tatum has been hot lately and has scored 20 points in six straight playoff games (first Celtic since Pierce in 2009). Celtics are 6-0 at home in the playoffs this season. The Celtics are too good at guarding the perimeter and they know they need to end the series tonight. In Brad Stevens I trust.

39-31 on MLB in 2018 up 13.32 units

Red Sox ML at +133 for 2 units. Porcello has not lost all year. Tanaka has been solid for the Yankees. These teams are basically even at this point in the year, but Tanaka gives up a few too many home runs for this much value. Gregorius, Judge, and Sanchez have all struggled vs Porcello in their career.

Diamondbacks ML at +108 for 2 units. Corbin also has not lost all year for the Diamondbacks. Corbin has pitched more than 13 innings against the Dodgers this season and has only given up one run. Alex Wood has struggled and the Dodgers have a list of injury problems.

37-30 on MLB in 2018 up 12.18 units

Orioles ML at -158 for 2 units. Dylan Bundy has been pitching better than his record indicates. The Royals are going for for their longest win streak of the season tonight (2 games). Baltimore has lost 6 in a row, I think they finally get a win tonight.

Mariners ML at -118 for 2 units. Still haven’t lost betting against Marcus Stroman this season. Mariners have only lost two series all season long as this one starts against the Blue Jays. Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak should be back for the Blue Jays, but the Mariners have some good bats too. I like Paxton more than Stroman in this one. Paxton had 16 strikeouts last time out.

Reds ML at -138 for 2 units. Jason Vargas fade.

 

8-5 on tennis up 3.05 units

Grigor Dimitrov ML at -138 for 1 unit. Dimitrov got a good draw in this tournament. Milos Raonic has usually been the higher seed when these two face, but he is the lower seed in this one. Dimitrov is 4-1 against Raonic and has never lost to Raonic on clay.

Del Potro ML at -526 for 2 units. Dzumhur has had some fitness issues lately and now he gets one of the best players on the tour in Del Potro. Del Potro has not played a game on clay this season, but he has made the semifinals here at Madrid twice. Del Potro could get off to a tough start in this one, as Dzumhur has been playing more matches lately, but I still like the Argentine here.

36-26 on MLB in 2018 up 21.29 units

15-6 over the past 6 days. Astros could do nothing against Severino. The Rays lost in extras on a bunt single. The Twins won and Stroman got another loss for the Blue Jays.

Betting on the better starting pitchers coupled with the better teams today.

Pirates ML at +115 for 3 units. Trevor Williams has given up one home run in more than 35 innings for the Pirates. Nationals are batting injury problems as well. Hellickson hasn’t impressed me too much either for the Nats.

Braves ML at -106 for 2 units. Jason Vargas fade and the Braves are first in the division. We all knew they would be….

Tigers ML at +102 for 2 units. Skoglund fade. Royals looked better in their series vs the Red Sox, but I still think the Tigers are better. Skoglund has given up 15 earned runs in 21 innings this season.

Diamondbacks ML at -119 for 3 units. Patrick Corbin is better than Alex Wood. Wood did not look good at all last time out. This line should be closer to -150 in my opinion.

Athletics ML at -120 for 3 units. I am just going to keep betting Sean Manaea till he loses. Manaea made me a fan with his no-hitter vs the Red Sox. He was named AL pitcher of the month with his 30 strikeouts in April. LeBlanc hasn’t started a game since 2016 and the Mariners are putting him on the mound instead of calling up Ariel Miranda. The Mariners bullpen has not impressed me, especially after losing Paxton’s career high (and MLB season high) 16 strikeout no run display last night. They might need their bullpen a lot without a true starter starting on Thursday.

 

5-5 on tennis down 2.38 units

Kohlschreiber ML at -370 for 3 units. Kohlschreiber is actually down in the series vs Zverev 1-0 on the tour, but that match was played in 2008. Kohlschreiber is in better form, is better overall, and has a better history in this tournament. This match is in Germany and both are German so not too much of an angle there.

Kohlschreiber Zverev under 21 for 3 units. I think Kohlschreiber and his much stronger serve wins in straight sets.

Chardy ML at -110 for 2 units. Chardy won the last meeting on clay 2-0 vs Lajovic. Chardy looked good in the first round of this tournament and my prediction is that he will move on here. Lajovic beat a fatigued Millman in the first round. Lajovic has not got past the second round of a tour level tournament since last year. I think Chardy will do enough to beat him in this one. Chardy has made some impressive round of 16 runs this season, Lajovic has not.

37-37-4 in Hockey up 5.07 units

The Lightning got up early on the Bruins and did a great job protecting the lead. Tampa won the faceoffs and the takeaways. The Sharks got up early and did a great job protecting the lead as well. Vegas is deservedly mad about picks not being called against the Sharks (especially during the first goal). I don’t think the Sharks dominated as much as the score indicated, but the Sharks definitely deserved the win. Vegas got mad at the end of the game and were 2 men down as time ran out. The series is now tied 2-2 and the Sharks have to feel confident after losing the first game 7-0 and crawling back in the series. Vegas did not score on any of their power plays and Fleury had a bad night for the first time in a while.

Going back to fading the public and betting underdogs… Should have never stopped doing that.

Caps ML at +150 for 3 units. Tom Wilson is suspended for the Caps, but I think they have outplayed the Penguins to a greater extent than one Tom Wilson. The Capitals winning is my prediction for Game 4. I just think the Caps have been better this series, and if it were not for a Game 1 meltdown, they would be up 3-0.

Caps Penguins over 6 for 1 unit. Last game was so open and I expect more of the same. So many great offensive players in this series and Murray has been struggling a little.

Predators ML at +130 for 3 units. Predators got up 3-0 and then lost the game. Jets are 9-1 in their last 10. A lot of things did not go the Predators way in Game 3, Subban’s clears, Rinne being too aggressive, and they still were in the game. Predators almost have to win this game if they want to stay in the series. If the Predators get up, they will defend the lead a lot better. Connor Hellebuyck had a good quote about Pekka Rinne: “I hope the media’s not all over him … this is not a fun series for a goalie.”

 

 

 

22-23-1 on NBA Playoffs down 3.14 units

Had a bad read on the 76ers-Celtics in Game 1. The Cavs won Game 1 and made me happy I made a series bet on them. The Raptors had a chance to win the game in regulation but they missed their last 11 shots in the 4th quarter and like 3 of those rimmed out on the final possession. If J.R. Swish and Kyle Korver make shots like they did in Game 1, I think they Cavs win in 6. The Warriors beat the Pelicans in a competitive game. The Pelicans covered easily. The Warriors have Steph Curry coming off the bench, the Pelicans have Ian Clark and Solomon Hill coming of their bench.. not fair.

Rockets Jazz over 205 for 4 units. The over last game lost by 1 point. This one will hit. I think both teams score more than they did in Game 1. Jazz shot 59% from the free throw line in Game 1 and that was the difference in the over. That number will go up.

Jazz +11 for 2 units. Jazz looked a lot better in the second half on Game 1. Quin Snyder the batman villain made some halftime adjustments that helped the Jazz. I just think this is too many points. I expect the Jazz to shoot a little better, and the Rockets to shoot a little worse than the 53% from 3 they shot in Game 1. Jazz had 18 turnovers in Game 1, that number will go down too.