11-10-3 on golf in 2018 up 11.62 units
Bias Warning: Plays here are influenced by Quail Hollow last week as it was the first tournament I watched since the Masters.
Henrik Stenson over Justin Rose at -110 for 3 units. The Swedish Stenson has been playing some excellent golf lately. Stenson has 3 straight top 10 finishes. Stenson has better odds to win the tournament. Driving accuracy is paramount at TPC Sawgrass and that may be Stenson’s greatest strength. The Swede is a past champ and this course plays to no style in particular, so I will take the player with better ball striking and that is in better form. In basketball, you gotta shoot well to win games. In golf, you gotta strike the ball well to win tournaments.
Jason Day over Justin Thomas at -110 for 2 units. Day has some course success here and won Wells Fargo without his best stuff. I expect him to keep it up.
Jason Day over Jordan Spieth at -105 for 2 units. Day has been at the tournament since early Monday morning working on all aspects of his game. I just expect him to keep rolling all the way to the U.S. Open. Also, Day won this tournament in 2016.
Ian Poulter over Tony Finau at +120 for 2 units. If you followed me back in March, you know I love betting Poulter. The Dell match play tournament was where I made a lot of money betting on Poulter (and against Finau). Both these guys are 55/1 to win this tournament, so I will take the hotter player at plus money. Finau has missed this cut twice as well.