Sportsologists

1-1-1 on NBA Playoffs down .18 units

Spurs had 17 first quarter points and then made 1 field goal in the last 6:30 of the second quarter. We missed the over by 1 point and the Warriors cruised. Steph Curry was on the bench for the Warriors, Kawhi Leonard was nowhere to be found. Serge Ibaka and the Raptors did enough to win the game, but they pushed against the Wizards. John Wall went off. The 76ers scored 77 second half points to pull away from the Heat. Dragic and Whiteside had quiet games. Anthony Davis and Playoff Rondo covered (like I predicted) and won the game outright in Portland. Now onto today’s slate.

Bucks +3.5 for 2 units. Giannis, Giannis, and Giannis. The Celtics have not won a game vs a playoff team since March. This is just a bad matchup for the Celtics. Boston is great at guarding the perimeter, but not so great in the paint. Guess where Giannis does his work? The paint. I think this will be a close game, but if either team pulls away, it will be the Bucks. Injuries to Irving, Hayward, and Marcus Smart will show themselves this series.

Cavs -7 for 2 units. Lebron vs Lance. Some people are predicting Lance will get in Lebron’s head.. yeah right. Lebron is one of the smartest players in basketball, too smart for Lance. The Cavs struggled at times this season, but they are still 29-12 at home. I am not going to be against Lebron in his first playoff game of the season. Oladipo and Sabonis have played well for the Pacers this season, but I do not think they will do enough to cover in this one.

Jazz Thunder over 205 for 4 units. Utah is averaging 113 points in April. The Thunder are averaging 115 points in April. If those numbers stay true, this game will soar over. The Jazz have been so hot on offense, I told myself i would bet this over if it was 212 or less. Vegas is giving us a gift with this 205.. I’ll bite..

No play on the Rockets Thunder game. The line is about where it should be and the over/under is tough to read. The Rockets could always get hot at home and cover, but I won’t be betting it. I like the T’Wolves, but they have weird problems like Teague’s awful entry passing and the lack of shooting from 3-point land (31.9% in April).

6-3 on MLB in 2018 up 3.58 units

Gotta love the Pirates win yesterday. 0-0 to start the 9th, Marte gets on with a bunt single. Then he gets to third on a single up the middle, then a pop up bunt in the infield gets him home for the 1-0 win. It was an ugly win, but I will take it. Red Sox cruised to give me a 2-0 day. Let’s keep it going.

Pirates ML at -152 for 3 units. Ivan Nova pitched well his last time out vs the Cubs. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has struggled so it is good to have Nova who can go 7+ innings. Also, Nova does not walk batters, which helps against a struggling Marlins team. I think the Pirates will win this game and the series. If they do, it’ll be a win or split in all 5 series to open up the season for Pittsburgh. Jose Urena has been giving up early runs in his starts for the Marlins. I do not think the Marlins have enough firepower to come back from a deficit in this one.

Phillies ML at +115 for 1 unit. Simply a value play. Rays have been terrible this season. Tampa Bay has the worst record to start a season in franchise history and they currently hold the worst record in the American League. Phillies have been hot, why not take them at plus money? Philly is 7-1 in their last 8 games. Rays are giving Ryan Yarbrough his first start, he has been good in relief this season, but the first start can always be a little tough.

Diamondbacks ML at +194 for 1 unit. Diamondbacks -1.5 at +333 for 1 unit. People see Kershaw and bet Dodgers. Let’s be a little sharper. Godley has been pitching lights out for the D’backs. The dodgers are batting .238 on the season and now face one of the best pitchers they have seen all year. Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire as well. Just taking the better team here.

 

 

 

Warriors Spurs over 206 for 2 units. When the Warriors played their strongest lineup against the Spurs this season, the over soared over 206 every time. The last game between these two saw a total of like 165. That was a fluke. Kevin Durant, Klay, and Steph were all out of that one. The spread scares me in this one, but I feel confident in this over.

Wizards +8 for 2 units. Raptors are 0-7 in their last 7 game 1s. I expect John Wall to play like he has in past playoffs and go off. Wizards did beat the Raptors in Toronto back in November, which should give them a little more confidence going into this one. It is the playoffs, I expect a close game here.

Pelicans +6 for 2 units. Anthony Davis and playoff Rondo. That is my capping angle for this game.

 

 

21-22-3 in Hockey up 2.77 units

Of course I bet on the Capitals in the playoffs last time out.. I have been ice cold lately.

Bruins ML at -170 for 3 units. Nazem Kadri has been suspended 3 games for the Leafs, prolly a little too harsh but still not good. Matthews against the Bruins 4th line worries me a little bit, but the Bruins are just better than the Leafs. Brad Marchand always makes the games interesting. If the Bruins lose.. It is because I bet them.

4-3 on MLB in 2018 down 0.75 units

Red Sox ML at -154 for 2 units. Alex Cobb is making is debut for the O’s. For the Orioles sake, I hope he does well. They need some starting pitching. I think this is a tough spot for him however. Red Sox have scored 6 runs or more in their last 6 games. Boston is also 5-1 in day games while the O’s are 2-4. J.D. Martinez has smoked Cobb in his career and nobody on the O’s starting 9 has ever faced Hector Velazquez. I am going with Hector and J.D. in this one.

Pirates ML at -165 for 5 units. Complete disclosure.. I am tilting here. I am pissed I did not zag last night with the Pirates fishy -130 line against a terrible Marlins team. The Marlins ended up winning. Let’s hope Jameson Taillon can get me back on track. Taillon threw a complete game one hitter his last time out. Trevor Richards has been bad for the Marlins this season too. I am taking this play with a lot more confidence than they play last night.

40-34-2 in soccer down 4.36 units

Toronto FC +0.5 at -140 for 3 units. If your site does not offer this, you could bet the tie and the win for Toronto as well. Marlon Hairston is injured for the Rapids, but they have looked better under recently appointed manager, Anthony Hudson. Edgar Castillo and Tim Howard are most likely Colorado’s best players. Giovinco and Altidore will not be featured in this game, but I still like Toronto’s young talent. There is just too much value in this play as both lineups will feature young, hungry players.

Manchester City +0.5 at -190 for 4 units and the over 2.5 for 1 unit at -140. Spurs are in better “form”, but City has played the red hot Liverpool and rival Manchester United to the tune of 3 straight loses. The over has hit the last 3 times these teams have met. These teams have only drawn 2 of the last 15 meetings.. are they due for a draw? Manchester City has to get their act together unless they want to be a part of one of the biggest premier league meltdowns in history. I think Pep and the boys secure at least a point in what should be an exciting game.

Columbus Crew +0.5 at -202 for 5 units. Crew created so many chances their last time out. Zardes and Higuan are the two best players on the pitch in this one and both play for the Crew. D.C. United have had the worst form in the Eastern Conference of late. I do like Mattocks for United, but he will not be enough to secure 3 points in this one.

1-1 on MLB in 2018 up 0.68 units

Braves ML at +178 for 1 unit. Value Value Value. These teams have had similar starts to the season and Darvish does not scare me too much. Both these teams have 108 hits and 14 home runs so far.

Cardinals ML at -155 for 2 units. Another value play. Thought Cards would be closer to -180 so I am taking the value. Reds have just been bad. Luke Weaver looked great in his last start too. Jose Martinez has been killing the ball.

Red Sox ML at -200 for 3 units. Chris Tillman fade. Made a lot of money betting against him and Drew Smyly last year. Why stop now?

Indians ML at -130 for 3 units. Indians pitching as been dominant lately. The bats are waking up too. Lindor had his first homer of the season against the Tigers last time out. This bet is trusting that Clevinger will keep the pitching hot for the Indians.

Pirates ML at -134 for 3 units. Solid value here against the Marlins. Dillion Peters has a 9.35 ERA for the Marlins. Pirates have been roping the ball and just won a series against the Cubs. Pirates have scored almost twice as many runs as Miami. This one seems too easy…

 

21-21-3 in Hockey up 5.77 units

Capitals ML at -144 for 3 units. It is their year they say.

First posted MLB plays of the season.

Pirates ML at +134 for 2 units. Pirates are 4th in the league in runs scored this season. They have been hot and I look for them to stay hot in this cold Chicago climate. Chatwood is starting for the Cubs and I like the improvement he has shown since 2016. The Cubs do too as they gave him a 3 year, $38 million contract this past offseason. Chatwood gave up 6 walks in his only start this season, and that is just to many base runners against this hot Pirates team. Also, Rizzo is out for the Cubs.

White Sox ML at +101 for 2 units. White Sox have to win a home game eventually right? There may have been more Cubs fans in the park yesterday than White Sox fans. This is a Blake Snell fade. Even Giancarlo Stanton has homered against Snell this year. Stanton is the first player this season with two 5 strikeout games. There were 5 of these 5 strikeout games in the entire 2017 season. The White Sox’s bats woke up a little yesterday, and I expect that trend to continue against a worse starter.

 

May add more plays later

21-20-3 in Hockey up 9.77 units

Russia – KHL – Playoffs

SKA St. Petersburg ML for 4 units at -133. I made a lot of winning bets while on vacation but didn’t post them so ya’ll don’t give a damn about that. So for the first play since vacation, I am going to bet on what is most likely a rigged event.. like Putin’s election could have been. Petersburg lost their last game, but they have not lost two in a row since the end of February. Petersburg has won 4 out of their last 5 vs Moscow at home and won the most recent meeting 2-0. I really like this spot. Best of luck.