Hockey February 14th

6-7-1 in Hockey up 5.85 units

NHL – OT included.

Maple Leafs ML for 2 units at -180. Leafs have scored 41 more goals than Columbus this season. Maple Leafs have won their past 5 home games. Auston Matthews leads Toronto in points, and the twenty year old looks like he is on his way to stardom in this league. Also, William Nylander has been playing the best season of his young career for Toronto. The Maple Leafs have more talent and are in better form. The Blue Jackets have won their last 2 games, but one of those was against the Islanders. The Islanders have the worst defense in the league according to my numbers so take that win with a grain of salt.

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NBA February 14th

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

16-16 on NBA in 2018 down 6.08 units

Pacers -4 for 4 units. Nets have lost 6 in a row and have one of the worst defenses in the league. Oladipo and former Net Bojan Bogdanovic have been on a tear lately. Bojan is shooting 50% from deep over the past 6 games. The Pacers are holding opponents under 33% from 3 in their past 20 games and I expect them to pull away in this one because of that. Pacers are 3-0 vs the Nets this season, winning all the games by 4 or more.

Warriors -6 for 3 units. The player coach angle is an interesting one as the Warriors are 53-4 without Kerr since he has been their head coach. Ty Lue was asked about Kerr letting the players coach and said “I wouldn’t do that. They already say Lebron is coaching the team anyway. So, if I give him the clipboard, they are really going to say that.” Lue is not ignorant. Warriors won the last meeting between these two by 7. Warriors have won 3 in a row in pretty dominating fashion and average 11.5 more assists a game than the Blazers. This assists difference just shows the difference in these two offenses.

Jazz team total over 111 for 3 units. Jazz have been the best NBA team over the past 10 games and now they get one of the worst teams in the NBA. Utah’s game scripts have been dictated by their opponents, but they are proving they can win in low scoring games (like against the Grizzlies and Spurs) and high scoring games (like against the Warriors and Pelicans). The Suns allow 113 points a game and now they play the hottest team in the NBA on Utah’s home court… I’ll take the Jazz over please.

Pelicans team total under 118 for 3 units. This number is just too high against an improving Lakers defense. The Pelicans have not scored over 118 in a home game that did not go into overtime since January 12th. Lakers have been hot against the spread lately, (8-2 in the last 10) but I like them to hold Pelicans to about 106 points.. not 118. Best of luck.

NCAAB February 14th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

31-29 on NCAAB in 2018 up 3.93 units

Villanova -9.5 for 3 units. Providence just does not have the 3-point shooting to keep up with Villanova. The Wildcats won the first meeting between these two by 20. Villanova also has the better defense. Villanova lost to St. John’s because of St. John’s strong guard play, I do not think the Friars can get a performance like Shamorie Ponds put up for the Red Storm. Providence is 8-15 against the spread and Villanova is 17-8 against the spread. I thought this line would be about 13, so I am taking the value and the favorite.

VCU +3 for 2 units. Davidson has the better defense, but VCU has the better offense. Both these teams are 11-10 against the spread this season. Justin Tillman had 37 points in his last game, and will need to take over the rest of the season if he wants to go to the NCAA tournament in his senior season. VCU has only lost at home recently to Rhode Island and Richmond. Rhode Island is the best team in the conference and VCU just did not look right against Richmond. I’ll take the points with the home team as these teams are similar.

Mississippi State +1.5 for 2 units. Mississippi State is just better than Vanderbilt. The only reason this line makes any sense is because the Memorial Gymnasium is a tough place to play. Mississippi State has the better defense and the advantage inside. Vanderbilt has not lost at home in over a month, but I think that unbeaten run ends here.

NC State +5 for 2 units. My friends that are NC State fans hate me because every time I bet them, they do not cover. Let’s change that here. State is a good passing team averaging 16.2 assists per game. Passing and 3-point shooting is needed to beat the zone and I think the Wolfpack can do those things. Syracuse has won their last two games, but I do not think they are as good as NC State. This is a must win for both teams. Best of luck.

 

Soccer February 14th

34-26-1 in soccer down 1.48 units

PSG +1/4 for 3 units at -120. Angel Di Maria and Edinson Cavani have their birthdays on this Champions League Wednesday. Cavani, Neymar, and Mbappe are all starting up top. Thiago Silva, Draxler, and Di Maria are all on the bench ready to play after dealing with injuries off and on this season. Bale is the super sub for Real Madrid. I could see this game ending 2-1 or 2-2 for PSG so I am betting them as the underdog. This is too much value to pass up against a Real Madrid team that has struggled this season.

Liverpool ML for 3 units at +118. Mane, Salah, and Firmino have all been in fine form and all start today. Liverpool’s midfield leaves a little bit to be desired with Henderson, Milner and Wijnaldum starting. Hector Herrera could eat up this midfield for Porto, but the absence of Aboubakar may hurt Porto. Klopp will go for some away goals in this one so I expect an open game with Liverpool’s talent up front being the deciding factor. Best of luck.