NCAAB March 16th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

46-43 on NCAAB in 2018 up 8.84 units

10-8 on NCAA Tournament up 8.26 units

4-2 on big unit plays (3 units or higher).

Wow Arizona really lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is circling the wagons no matter what postseason it is. Collin Sexton is good. Penn thought about beating Kansas then Devonte’ Graham hit the Quakers with a nah. Gonzaga and Texas Tech survived. Duke and Tennessee looked great. Loyola hit a dagger 3 to end Miami’s season. Rhode Island beat Trae Young and his unnecessary deep 3s in overtime. The ides of March was an exciting time. Onto the next one.

Texas A&M -2 for 4 units. Texas A&M will bully Providence down low like Seton Hall did in their two games against Providence this year. The Aggies have two 6 foot ten dudes in Tyler Davis and Robert Williams. Providence has beat some good teams like Villanova this year, but the Aggies finished the season well and pose matchup problems for Providence. The friars do have more experience than the Aggies, but my prediction is that A&M’s big men will be too much for Providence to handle.

Purdue -20 for 1 unit. The CS Fullerton Titans are an impressive 18-9 against the spread on the season, while Purdue is just 15-17-1 ATS. Purdue did not look great in their last game when they lost to Michigan by 9. CS Fullerton has been blown out by Southern California and Saint Mary’s this year, which is why I like Purdue to cover here. It is is also a long way to travel for CS Fullerton. The Titans do not really have any big men that can compete with Purdue’s size. The Boilermakers usually underperform in this tournament, maybe this is the year that changes.

Marshall +12 for 3 units. Marshall has ended a long tournament drought. They lost by 4 at Xavier this season. Marshall has a great player in Jon Elmore, he is fun to watch. The Thundering Herd are 12th in the nation in scoring, putting up over 83 points a game. Marshall has won their last 4 games. Wichita State has lost 2 of their last 3 games. Marshall is a solid 20-11 against the spread this year while the Shockers are only 12-18. Take the underdog here.

Cincinnati -14 for 2 units. Cincinnati is a balanced team that plays great defense. I think they cruise to a win here. Georgia State is 126th in the country in points scored a game, which is why I do not think they have the offense to compete with the Bearcats.

North Carolina -19.5 for 3 units. The Libscomb Bisons have a tough draw here against the defending national champs. Luke Maye, Joel Berry, and Theo Pinson are back after back 2 back final fours. Libscomb lost to the only other high seed they played this season (Purdue) by 32. The Bisons have a good offense, but one of the worst defenses in this tournament. North Carolina also gets Cam Johnson back. I thought this line would be 24 or more so I am taking what I perceive as value.

Arkansas +2 for 1 unit. I want to play this for more, but the line scares me as the 7 seed is the underdog. Arkansas has experience in this tournament. This line is the way it is because it is essentially a home game for Butler. I will be watching this game with interest, but I do not have a strong play.

West Virginia – Murray State over 145 for 1 unit. West Virginia has more experience, well maybe I just think that because Jevon Carter looks like he has more experience. West Virginia has been struggling to finish games and I could see this game going to free throws at the end and the over hitting.

Nevada +1 for 1 unit. Nevada finished 1st in the Mountain West in the regular season and beat some good teams on the year like Rhode Island. They are led by NC State transfer Caleb Martin. Mo Bamba is no joke for Texas and will most likely be a top 5 pick in the NBA draft this year, but as we saw with Oklahoma/Rhode Island – the team with the future lottery pick does not always win. I just think Nevada is the better team, especially since Texas does not have two guards in Andrew Jones and Eric Davis. Guards matter in March ya know.

Creighton -1 for 2 units. These two teams are so incredibly even. I am betting on the team with the best player Marcus Foster. Creighton also beat Villanova this year. Creighton has a top 10 offense in the country by points per game and I like them here.

Bucknell +15 for 1 unit. Bucknell is one of the hottest teams in the tournament and I like them to cover here. Bucknell lost by 12 to North Carolina earlier this year and I could see them losing by about that number here. Zach Thomas has been great for Bucknell all season and I expect him to show up here.

Xavier -19 for 2 units. Texas Southern is actually 7-1 against the spread this season. They started the season with like 13 straight loses so it is actually impressive that they made it into the tournament. Texas Southern lost to Kansas by 43 and Gonzaga by 28 points. I like Xavier to win by more than 20 here too.

College of Charleston +9 for 1 unit. Auburn did not finish the season strong. Charleston was led by Joe Chealey’s 32 points in their conference championship game. This is an upset alert for me. I have watched Auburn play 4 or 5 times this season and they were not overly impressive in any of them. Coach Bruce Pearl even said they have to play a lot better if they want to win a tournament game.

UVA -21 for 1 unit. UMBC will struggle to score in this game. I know UVA lost their athletic sixth man, but we will not see the drawbacks of that in this game. Take the 1 seed.

Syracuse +5 for 3 units. I am starting to really like Tyus Battle. TCU lost their last two games heading into the tournament and Syracuse has momentum beating Arizona State in the first four. TCU has not played a zone all season that I can remember and making 3s in a neutral site is not always easy. The tongue-in-cheek Mark Titus theory of the winning team has to hit their shots applies in this one. If TCU is making their 3s they will cover, if not Cuse may win outright.

FSU -1 for 2 units. FSU lost a lot of talent from last year’s team, but I believe they have the better coach and team in this one. Michael Porter is back for Missouri, but I do not know if that really helps them that much. He did not look great in his most recent game, although you could see the potential. Missouri only scored 60 points against Georgia, I think FSU’s well balanced offense and defense will prevail.

Clemson – New Mexico State over 133 for 2 units. The line for this game (-5) is a trap line so I am staying away from that. This could be the classic 12-5 upset. Clemson can play defense and shoot the 3, so I could see them going far… or losing this game. 4 of the past 5 games have gone over 133 for both teams (if you exclude the UVA game). If this is a close game at the end, I could see the free-throw-end-of-game-fouling sending this one over. Best of luck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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