MLB April 30th

31-21 on MLB in 2018 up 19.84 units

10-1 over the past 3 days. The Yankees were hitless in the first 3 innings yesterday, then Gary Sanchez hit a 2 run homer. The Yankees won 2-1 with that homer being the only runs they scored a day after scoring 11 runs with no homers. The Mariners barreled plenty of Josh Tomlin’s balls on their way to an easy win. Tomlin and his run of being the longest tenured Indians pitcher may be coming to an end.. but I will keep betting against him till it does.

Pirates ML at +103 for 1 unit. The Nats bullpen and bats are struggling and the Pirates are hot. Roark did not look great last time out for the Nationals. Taillon did not look so great either, but the Pirates are finding ways to win while the Nats seem to be finding ways to lose.

Pirates Nats over 7.5 for 1 unit. Taillon and Roark both struggled in their last starts. I thought this line would be 8.5 or 9. Taking the value. Also, Zimmerman is 3-4 vs Taillon.

Yankees ML at +139 for 1 unit. ALCS rematch. Sonny Gray has struggled with his control this season and that is the only reason this line is like this. Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two starts vs the Yankees. I am straying away from my numbers a little bit with this play as the Astros are rightfully favored. The Yankees have just been finding ways to win lately whether it is a Sanchez walk off homer or a Didi walk off base hit. Didi is hitting .340 on the season. Jose Altuve seemingly never stopped hitting since his insane playoff run (.351 BA).

Giants ML at -147 for 3 units. Eric Lauer pitched horribly in his first start for the Padres giving up 6 runs in 3 innings. Jeff Samardzija has stuggled a little bit for the Giants this season, but he loves pitching against the Padres. Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria have been great signings so far for the Giants, even though their numbers are not eye popping. The Padres won the last game between these two 10-1 and the Giants will want revenge after losing that series. San Francisco is playing a lot better now.

NHL Playoffs April 30th

35-33-4 in Hockey up 10.21 units

Up 4.44 units on NHL Playoffs

I would recommend playing these two plays together because even at plus money, I can’t see them both losing.

Bruins ML at +134 for 3 units. The Bruins shitpumped the Lightning in Game 1. Boston’s top line had 11 points in Game 1. 11! The top line played bump and chase if there was no gap. If there was a gap, they just carried it into the zone flawlessly. I think the Bruins-Leafs series going to 7 games helped the Bruins in more ways than one. The 7 games gave the young players more experience, kept the rust off (Tampa looked rusty), and showed them they can’t let up. Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci, Krug, and McQuaid are experienced enough to know that the Lightning are going to have more fire in Game 2. I’ll be the first admit I am not as good at identifying young talent in hockey as I am in other sports, but even I can see David Pastrnak is damn good. Pastrnak is already 35th in points in a single post season in Bruins history.. He has only played 8 games.

Knights ML at +112 for 3 units. Gerard Gallant looks like a no nonsense coach and he will have his team prepared after giving up a 2-0 lead to the Sharks last game. Fleury is still having the best season of his career in my opinion. Vegas did not lose at the Shark Tank in the regular season. The Sharks have not impressed me this series even though it is tied 1-1. The Sharks are only favored because they are at home, I like taking the away team in situations like this.

NBA Playoffs April 30th

22-22-1 on NBA Playoffs up 0.86 units

Lebron James had 45 points in the Cavs Game 7 win. King James was dominate and he had to be. The Cavs shot 16 more free throws than the Pacers. The Collison tech was a laughable call at a point in time when the Pacers were gaining momentum. Darren Collison had to be frustrated after that because we all know Lebron and other stars get away with worse than that. Maybe I am too woke, but sometimes it feels like I am watching WWE with the NBA. Oh well, that’s why we bet the Cavs. The Rockets shot 53.1% from 3 and cruised to a 1-0 series lead over the Jazz. Harden had 41 points. The over missed by 1 point, which hurt because that was an 8 unit swing. On to the next one.

76ers -3 for 4 units. DO NOT PLAY IF BROWN PLAYS. Not having Jaylen Brown did not seem to affect the Celtics too much in the second half of Game 7 vs the Bucks, but it will show up here. The Celtics are 55-32-2 against the spread this season, while the 76ers are 51-34-2. Pretty damn impressive. Simmons will play great without the length of Brown guarding him. Embiid will be too much for Horford. The only advantage I see for the Celtics is coaching. Redick and Marco Belinelli will shoot better in TD Garden than any of the Bucks did last series (not that hard to do). The 76ers are almost -400 to win the series and they are only favored by 3 without the Celtics best defender playing in this one? Sign me up.

MLB April 29th

29-21 on MLB in 2018 up 15.68 units

8-1 over the past two days. First year Nationals manager Dave Martinez essentially lost them the game by prematurely changing pitchers when he thought the Diamondbacks were pinch hitting. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo saw the pitching change and kept the same hitter (Dyson) in. This led to some walks and the Diamondbacks getting a 1 run win. Lucky for us, we bet Diamondbacks.

Mariners ML at +101 for 2 units. Josh Tomlin is the longest tenured Indians pitcher, but he has struggled this year. Tomlin has given up 8 home runs in 12.1 innings. Marco Gonzales threw 6 scoreless innings last time out for the Mariners. Mitch Haniger has 27 RBIs in as many games for the Mariners this season. The Mariners have the better bats at this point in the season.

Yankees ML at +107 for 2 units. The Yankees got production from their entire batting order in yesterday’s 11-1 win over the Angels. There were no home runs for the Yankees, but they still scored 11 runs.. we will not see that again this year. Didi Gregorius is batting .356 with a .451 OBP. Those are college baseball numbers. Sabathia has not given up an earned run in his last 2 outings. Tyler Skaggs has only faced one batter in this Yankees lineup (Stanton). Skaggs has an ERA 7.51 points higher at home than away.

 

NHL Playoffs April 29th

34-32-4 in Hockey up 9.54 units

Up 3.77 units on NHL Playoffs

Capitals ML at -120 for 2 units. I don’t know why I do this to myself… If the Caps want to move on, they can’t lose both games at home to start the series like they did last round.  It sounds cliche, but this is their Stanley Cup. Ovi missed some opportunities in Game 1 and one of the ones he should have made, led to a Crosby goal not 8 seconds later. That was a microcosm of the relationship between these two teams. The Caps just looked so much better in Game 1 except for that 5 minute spell where the Penguins went from down 2 to up 3-2.

Jets – Predators under 5.5 for 1 unit. Bet this in the first game and am doing it again. Like I have said before, I am just a big fan of both of these goalies (Connor Hellebuyck and Pekka Rinne). They are two of the best players on the ice. I want to make a bet on the Preds, but Hellebuyck stopped 47 shots in Game 1 and he is stopping me from making that play.

NBA Playoffs April 29th

21-21-1 on NBA Playoffs up 4.66 units

I did not think the Bucks would get blown out like that in a Game 7. Giannis never really got going. Terry Rozier did get going. Rozier is so smooth and he is tough to stop when he is drilling 3 pointers (he went 5-8 from deep). Celtics fans were chanting “Who is Bledsoe” as their team won 112-96. The Warriors cruised without Steph behind their other 3 stars. The Warriors made the Pelicans look ordinary again by scoring 76 first half points.

Cavs ML at -250 for 3 units. Lebron will make it to the next round because David Stern wants him to. Stern is still pulling the stings no doubt. (sarcasm)

Jazz Rockets over 207 for 4 units. I want to see these teams play before I take action on the line, but I like this over. This over/under should be closer to 214 in my opinion. I realize the playoffs are different, but 6 of the last 7 games between these two teams has gone over this number. Harden and Mitchell have both been hot lately and the Rockets shoot from the perimeter better at home.

Tennis April 29th

5-4 on tennis up .62 units.

Stefanos Tsitsipas +6.5 for 3 units. Tsitsipas vs Nadal in the Barcelona ATP final. The Spaniard Nadal looks to claim his 11th title in Barcelona. He has never lost a final here. Neither one of these players has lost a set in Barcelona… Nadal hasn’t lost a set since his injury at the Australian Open way back in January. Nadal can slip up at times against the quick one-handed backhand that players like Stefanos Tsitsipas use. Also, when Nadal does lose a match, it is to a player with a strong serve like Stefanos. Tsitsipas is the first Greek in an ATP final since Clark Graebner in 1973.

NBA Playoffs April 28th

20-19-1 on NBA Playoffs up 9.76 units

Wizards blew it in the 4th quarter like they did all season and multiple games this series. Raptors win Game 6 by limiting turnovers and strong bench play. Will the Wizards blow it up this offseason? Pacers won by 34. Even though the series is 3-3, the total point differential is +42 for the Pacers. They still may lose the series. Oladipo had 28 points on 6-8 shooting from deep. The Thunder lost the series and Westbrook was pissed. The Jazz were better at coaching, passing, defense, and… They were just better. Carmelo had 4 points in the 4th quarter in the entire series. Westbrook had 46 points on 43 shots and Playoff P went 2-16 in Game 6.

Bucks +5 at -118 for 5 units. Bucks have not lost by this much since Game 2. Giannis needs to shoot more than the 10 times like he did last time he was in Boston. Celtics are averaging 93 points in the past 4 games while the Bucks are averaging over 100. I just don’t think Boston can stop Giannis.

Pelicans +9 for 1 unit. Anthony Davis, Uncle Jrue Holiday, and Playoff Rondo went off in the last series and the Warriors have not impressed me too much these playoffs. Who is going to guard Davis? Too many points for how hot the Pelicans are in my opinion.

Pelicans Warriors under 225 for 1 unit. Went 2-1 on unders yesterday so let’s keep it rolling. Warriors did not score over 100 points in their last two games and now they meet a hot team. I thought this number would be 222 so I am taking the little bit of value.

NHL Playoffs April 28th

32-32-4 in Hockey up 1.68 units

Bruins ML at +136 for 3 units. Bruins lost out on first place in the East by 1 point to the Lightning in the regular season. Bruins have a top 5 power play and penalty kill. Tampa’s penalty kill struggled this season so I do not put too much stock in them stopping the Devils 16 of 19 times on Jersey’s power play. I think the Bruins will win one game in Tampa. Let’s hope it is this one.

Sharks Knights over 5.5 at +126 for 3 units. Knights had 7 goals by themselves last game.. pretty selfish if you ask me. I just think this is too much value to pass up.

MLB April 28th

27-20 on MLB up 14.33 units 

6-0 yesterday. Still trying to figure out why the athletics were +143 with Manaea on the mound. Fine with me, that was free money.

Brewers ML at +158 for 3 units. Junior Guerra has given up 2 runs in 16 innings for the Brewers. Jose Quintana has an ERA of 7.78 for the Cubs. Guerra’s is has a 0.56 ERA. I will take the better starting pitcher at plus money. Quintana does have a good history against the Brewers, but this Brewers lineup is better than past seasons.

Diamondbacks ML at -136 for 3 units. Nationals are struggling and the Diamondbacks are not. Now the Diamondbacks get Corbin on the mound. Diamondbacks are 6-2 in day games. Nationals are 5-6. I like this spot.

Giants ML (Game 2) at +107 for 2 units. Cueto at plus money. It is that simple. Cueto has the best ERA in the MLB. Cueto has more strikeouts this year than baserunners allowed. Cueto has not given up a home run either. Also, the Dodgers are banged up.