Month: April 2018

4-4-1 on NBA Playoffs down .86 units

Raptors pulled away from the Wizards with strong 1st and 4th quarters. DeRozan dropped 37 points and he may be the best mid-range player in the NBA. Here is a picture that sums up this current Wizards roster. Beal is just like.. “I’m done.” Giannis was not enough for the Bucks to beat the Celtics.. again. Jrue Holiday showed up and balled out. Playoff Rondo is still amazing and the Pelicans are up 2-0 on the Blazers. Where is Damien Lillard?

Pacers +8 for 3 units. Pacers won last game by 18 and still are not getting credit from Vegas. I think this game will be a lot closer than Game 1, but the Cavs just have too many problems this season. Cavs had 17 turnovers in the first game. Oladipo has been balling all year and now gets to show off.  Lebron did not look like he cared too much in Game 1, I expect more effort from him.. but I doubt it will be enough to blow out the Pacers.

Jazz Thunder over 207 for 3 units. The last game soared over. These teams are both averaging over 110 points in April. I still feel this over under should be set around 212 so I am going to keep taking it. Paul George may not stay as hot as he was in Game 1, but I expect Westbrook to pick up the slack a little.

Rockets -10 for 3 units. Rockets missed over 10 open 3s in Game 1. They will make more of these shots in Game 2. Also, Chris Paul had 6 turnovers and an off game, I expect him to improve as well. Rockets are just too nice and know they have to play better than they did in Game 1.

 

 

23-27-3 in Hockey down 6.66 units

Predators ML at -155 for 6 units. Bounce back spot here. If you did not bet Predators last game out, you can just bet this for 3 units. I know you are not supposed to chase losses, but here I am. Pekka will play better tonight than last time out. I think the Preds will play the best they have all series tonight.

Penguins ML at -140 for 4 units. Flyers are hurting themselves in practice. Couturier may be out for the Flyers. Crosby and Malkin will do enough to get the Penguins the 3-1 lead here.

Lightning ML at -135 for 6 units. Chasing loses here too. If you did not bet the Lightning last game with me, feel free to only lay 3 units. The Lightning just fell apart in the 3rd period last game. The Lightning beat themselves, that will not happen again. I expect the Lightning to play the best game of the series tonight. Tampa needs to cover Taylor Hall and give up less power plays.. easy. Also, this game is on the GOLF Channel, so that is super exciting.

9-8 on MLB in 2018 down 0.48 units

Tigers ML at +113 for 2 units. Both these teams are playing poorly early in the season. The Orioles have struggled for a while now, and now face Matthew Boyd. Boyd has given up only 2 runs in 13 innings pitched. Orioles already have some injuries and I just think the Tigers want this win more.

Rangers ML at -102 for 2 units. I wish Bartolo Colon would have got his perfect game, but it was fun to watch that game regardless. Hamels has given up a lot of home runs this year, but Tampa Bay’s pitcher, Jacob Faria, has given up a lot of baserunners. Faria looked good his last time out, but I still like the Rangers here.

Nationals ML at +102 for 3 units. I just don’t really believe in the Mets yet. Steven Matz is solid, but so is Tanner Roark. Bryce Harper has been hot to start of the season, I expect that to continue. I just think the Nats have more firepower in their lineup.

Red Sox ML at +110 for 1 unit. Tyler Skaggs has been great for the Angels this season, but I just can’t quit Rick Porcello. Also, the Red Sox’s bats have been hot and I expect that to continue.

Dodgers ML at -160 for 3 units. Dodgers seemed to have turned the corner after a poor start the season. Perdomo has struggled against the Dodgers historically. Maeda has struggled against the Padres as well, but not as bad as Perdomo has against the Dodgers. I am taking the hotter team here.

 

 

23-24-3 in Hockey up 2.34 units

Bet on the Capitals in the playoffs twice.. They lose in overtime twice. I am not addicted to cigarettes, but it seems I am addicted to betting the Caps. Why do I do this to myself? Sergei Bobrovsky faced 58 shots in the Blue Jackets win.. 58!! Penguins and Wild cruised. The Golden Knights have still never lost a playoff game.

Bruins ML at -110 for 3 units. I just think the Bruins are a lot better than the Maple Leafs. Pastrnak has a record nine points through the Bruins’ first two games. I just think Marchand and the Bruins front line is way too strong for the Maple Leafs. The penalty kill for Toronto has been dreadful as well. Thought this line would be close to -140 so I am taking the value.

Predators ML at -155 for 3 units. Told myself if this was -170 or less I would bet it, and here we are. The Predators are my Stanley Cup pick. They are just so deep and strong. Erik Johnson and Varlamov being out is just too much for the Avalanche to overcome.

Lightning ML at -139 for 3 units. The Lightning have not been behind in this series. I think Tampa Bay will come out and take care of business. Tampa is an experienced team and know that if they let the Devils win this one, it could be a long series.

Sorry for betting all favorites, I just think all 3 will win. Only 2 out of 3 have to win to win money. 2 out of 3 will win.

 

2-3-1 on NBA Playoffs down .37 units

Terry Rozier baptized Eric Bledsoe in Bledsoe’s first playoff game. I bet the spread at Bucks +3.5 and was happy with the 99-96 scoreline. Then Kris Middleton decided to drain a long 3. The second he made it, I knew it wouldn’t cover in overtime. Good read on the game, but lost the bet. The Cavs-Pacers game, I did not have a good read on.. Oladipo went off and said he has been doing it all year post game, it just hasn’t been “magnified”. Will Lebron lose in the first round? OKC and Paul George made sure my over bet hit. I think the Jazz played well, but Paul George was just too wet. James Harden went off and KAT disappeared in the Rockets win. Will Harden show up when it matters most though?

I am sick of getting juiced in these playoffs, so I am just making plays accordingly now. It could come back to bite me..

76ers ML at -290 for 4 units. The 76ers have just been so hot. Simmons has been a beast over the past two months. I just don’t think the Heat have the 3-point shooting to pull away from the 76ers. I hope Spoelstra keeps sitting Whiteside for this bets sake.

Warriors ML at -590 for 3 units. Spurs looked like trash in Game 1. I love Pop, but he may be more stubborn than he realizes at times. Spurs need Kawhi, but that does not look like it is going to happen. The Spurs have given up over 113 points a game this season, maybe Pop needs to change his defensive tactics to match his personal? Or just butter up Kawhi and get him back..

Warriors Spurs over 205 for 3 units. The under missed by 1 point last game and the Spurs had some dreadful offensive spells. I am betting the Spurs play a little better. Betting Warriors over is always fun too because Klay or Kevin Durant can get hot at any given time. Maybe the over will start 0-2 in this series, let’s hope not.

8-5 on MLB in 2018 up 4.70 units

Pirates ML at -129 for 2 units. Pirates have scored an impressive 87 runs on the season. I have been riding them lately. The Rockies are only batting .217 on the season. Nolan Arenado will not be playing this series due to his mound rushing suspension. The Rockies may have the better starter in this matchup, but I think the Pirates bats can do enough.

Blue Jays ML at -165 for 3 units. Kansas City has only 5 home runs in 13 games. The Blue Jays have scored 33 more runs than the Royals at this point in the season. The Blue Jays just came back from a 4-0 deficit and beat the Indians. Skoglund gave up 5 runs in 4 and 2/3rds his last time out. I think the Blue Jays will hit Skoglund well.

Phillies ML at -130 for 3 units. This is simple, fade Julio Teheran and ride the red hot Phillies.

Rangers ML at +155 for 2 units. I would bet any team +150 or higher against the Rays. Just too much value to pass up. The Rangers just beat the Astros in extra innings twice. The Rangers won’t lose without a fight. Martin Perez has a terrible ERA for the Rangers, but he did face the Angels his last time out, so I will give him a second chance here.

22-22-3 in Hockey up 4.53 units

Penguins ML at -124 for 1 unit. Philly went 2-3 on their power play in their win last game against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh went 0-4. I think those numbers will move more towards the mean in this crucial 3rd game. The Flyers are still only 1-5 against the Penguins this season. I am betting they go to 1-6 here. Also, Malkin said he would be better than he was in Game 2. I am not going to bet against his words.

Jets ML at -110 for 1 unit. Ryan Suter is out for the Wild and I just really like this Jets team. Jets are better on offense and defense than the Wild. The Wild have struggled to score this series. If the Wild do sneak out a win in this one, I’ll double down on the Jets in the next game.

Capitals ML at -145 for 2 units. The Caps are a habit I cannot quit. They won me money in the regular season, so I’ll let that game 1 meltdown slide. They can’t lose two games in a row right? (The Capitals are 23-8-1 after a loss this season… so I guess they can). The Caps are healthy and hungry, I expect them to get up and stay up in this one. Trotz has scratched Vrana tonight, the Caps fanbase isn’t too pleased with that..

 

1-1-1 on NBA Playoffs down .18 units

Spurs had 17 first quarter points and then made 1 field goal in the last 6:30 of the second quarter. We missed the over by 1 point and the Warriors cruised. Steph Curry was on the bench for the Warriors, Kawhi Leonard was nowhere to be found. Serge Ibaka and the Raptors did enough to win the game, but they pushed against the Wizards. John Wall went off. The 76ers scored 77 second half points to pull away from the Heat. Dragic and Whiteside had quiet games. Anthony Davis and Playoff Rondo covered (like I predicted) and won the game outright in Portland. Now onto today’s slate.

Bucks +3.5 for 2 units. Giannis, Giannis, and Giannis. The Celtics have not won a game vs a playoff team since March. This is just a bad matchup for the Celtics. Boston is great at guarding the perimeter, but not so great in the paint. Guess where Giannis does his work? The paint. I think this will be a close game, but if either team pulls away, it will be the Bucks. Injuries to Irving, Hayward, and Marcus Smart will show themselves this series.

Cavs -7 for 2 units. Lebron vs Lance. Some people are predicting Lance will get in Lebron’s head.. yeah right. Lebron is one of the smartest players in basketball, too smart for Lance. The Cavs struggled at times this season, but they are still 29-12 at home. I am not going to be against Lebron in his first playoff game of the season. Oladipo and Sabonis have played well for the Pacers this season, but I do not think they will do enough to cover in this one.

Jazz Thunder over 205 for 4 units. Utah is averaging 113 points in April. The Thunder are averaging 115 points in April. If those numbers stay true, this game will soar over. The Jazz have been so hot on offense, I told myself i would bet this over if it was 212 or less. Vegas is giving us a gift with this 205.. I’ll bite..

No play on the Rockets Thunder game. The line is about where it should be and the over/under is tough to read. The Rockets could always get hot at home and cover, but I won’t be betting it. I like the T’Wolves, but they have weird problems like Teague’s awful entry passing and the lack of shooting from 3-point land (31.9% in April).

6-3 on MLB in 2018 up 3.58 units

Gotta love the Pirates win yesterday. 0-0 to start the 9th, Marte gets on with a bunt single. Then he gets to third on a single up the middle, then a pop up bunt in the infield gets him home for the 1-0 win. It was an ugly win, but I will take it. Red Sox cruised to give me a 2-0 day. Let’s keep it going.

Pirates ML at -152 for 3 units. Ivan Nova pitched well his last time out vs the Cubs. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has struggled so it is good to have Nova who can go 7+ innings. Also, Nova does not walk batters, which helps against a struggling Marlins team. I think the Pirates will win this game and the series. If they do, it’ll be a win or split in all 5 series to open up the season for Pittsburgh. Jose Urena has been giving up early runs in his starts for the Marlins. I do not think the Marlins have enough firepower to come back from a deficit in this one.

Phillies ML at +115 for 1 unit. Simply a value play. Rays have been terrible this season. Tampa Bay has the worst record to start a season in franchise history and they currently hold the worst record in the American League. Phillies have been hot, why not take them at plus money? Philly is 7-1 in their last 8 games. Rays are giving Ryan Yarbrough his first start, he has been good in relief this season, but the first start can always be a little tough.

Diamondbacks ML at +194 for 1 unit. Diamondbacks -1.5 at +333 for 1 unit. People see Kershaw and bet Dodgers. Let’s be a little sharper. Godley has been pitching lights out for the D’backs. The dodgers are batting .238 on the season and now face one of the best pitchers they have seen all year. Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire as well. Just taking the better team here.

 

 

 

Warriors Spurs over 206 for 2 units. When the Warriors played their strongest lineup against the Spurs this season, the over soared over 206 every time. The last game between these two saw a total of like 165. That was a fluke. Kevin Durant, Klay, and Steph were all out of that one. The spread scares me in this one, but I feel confident in this over.

Wizards +8 for 2 units. Raptors are 0-7 in their last 7 game 1s. I expect John Wall to play like he has in past playoffs and go off. Wizards did beat the Raptors in Toronto back in November, which should give them a little more confidence going into this one. It is the playoffs, I expect a close game here.

Pelicans +6 for 2 units. Anthony Davis and playoff Rondo. That is my capping angle for this game.