Month: April 2018

16-17 on MLB down 7.09 units

Going back to what got me up units early in the season. Fading bad pitchers. I am chasing losses a little bit today so tail at your own risk.

Braves ML at -105 for 5 units. Braves can’t lose 3 in a row to the Reds can they? Brandon Finnegan is supposed to be a great pitcher, but I just have not seen it this year. Finnegan leaves too many balls up in the strike zone and gets behind batters. Finnegan has given up 19 baserunners in 7 innings. Matt Wisler has given up 2 baserunners in 7 innings for the Braves.

Rays ML at +101 for 5 units. Alex Cobb has made me money betting against him this season. I am not going to stop fading him now. Cobb will throw against his old team today, which provides an interesting wrinkle. Cobb has given up 22 baserunners in 7 innings. Orioles have lost 3 in a row while the Rays have won 4 in a row. Rays have scored 26 runs in their last 3 games.

Athletics ML at -105 for 5 units. Graveman has been bad this season, but he looked better in his last start vs the Red Sox retiring 11 in a row at one point. Doug Fister has been bad vs the A’s in his career. The A’s have hit right handers better this season. Adrian Beltre is now out for the Rangers. Jed Lowrie has been smacking the ball for the Athletics. Going with the better team here.

4-1 on tennis up 1.98 units

Kei Nishikori at -472 for 3 units. High juice for a player coming off his first long tournament after an injury, but Kei likes Barcelona. Kei won this event in 2014 and 2015. Winning this event may be tough this time around because Nadal is in his quarter (Nadal beat Kei in the finals in Monte Carlo last week after an 11 hour match). Nevertheless, Nishikori should be able to handle Garcia-Lopez as he is 3-0 against the spaniard in his career.

Benoit Paire +3 at -108 for 1 unit. Betting on a Paire spread is always tough because if he gets down in a set, he could give up like he did in Morocco. I just think there is too much value here. Paire won the last meeting 2 sets to none and that match was also in Spain on clay. Carreno-Busta is the more consistent player, but Paire seems to have the higher ceiling. Paire made it to the semifinal of this tournament in 2016. Also, Paire holds the 3-2 advantage against Carreno-Busta on clay.

 

13-14-1 on NBA Playoffs up 6.67 units 

My goal is to be up 20 units by the end of these playoffs, but I will settle for 15 units. Let’s get it.

Rockets beat the T’Wolves behind a franchise playoff record quarter with 50 points in the third. Rockets had 7 turnovers, Timberwolves had 17. Harden dropped 36 points on 12/26 shooting. The Jazz took a commanding 3-1 lead. Donovan Mitchell is fun to watch. Paul George was the only 1 of the “Big 3” to show up… again. Westbrook has the worst plus/minus (-45) and FG% (36%) on the Thunder in these playoffs.

Bucks Celtics over 203 for 2 units. Every over has hit in this series and I’ve been betting them. The average total in this series has been right around 212. I think the number should be about 209 so I am taking what I perceive as value here.

76ers -10 for 4 units. 76ers win by 16.

Spurs Warriors over 203.5 for 1 unit. The over is 2-2 in this series. This is the lowest over/under number so far. I think the Warriors will put up a lot of points in this one. Spurs shot 54% from deep last game. That number will come down a little, but it is a good sign after they shot 24% in the first 3 games. Warriors will play better than last game and if the Spurs play as well as they did last game, this over will hit.

30-29-4 in Hockey up 8.53 units

Penguins were down early in the game, but they dominated the second period on the way to a series win. The Flyers just did not have the defense or firepower to keep up with their rivals. Predators finished their series as well. The Avalanche did not have the answers for Nashville’s attack.

Bruins ML at -118 for 3 units. Rask should play better for the Bruins than last game. I just think the Bruins end the series tonight. The Bruins will start this game strong because of how soundly they got outplayed in the 1st period last game. Marchand and the Bruins will win this game.

 

12-13-1 on NBA Playoffs up 4.86 units

The Bucks evened the series behind Giannis. Jaylen Brown dropped 34 points for the Celtics, but it was not enough. LaMarcus Aldridge had a double-double and the Spurs avoided the sweep. The Wizards also evened their series. Wall and Beal were better than DeRozan and Lowry in Game 4. Kyle Korver and Lebron James evened the series vs the Pacers. Oladipo was only 5-20 from the field. The Lance/Lebron feud is always fun to watch.

Rockets -6 for 3 units. Rockets will step up and play better than they did last game. The Rockets will make adjustments and James Harden won’t get stopped by Taj Gibson again. Timberwolves shot the ball well in Game 3, but a lot of that was lack of defensive effort from Houston. Rockets will be better at guarding the drive and kicks in this one.

Thunder +4.5 for 1 unit. Westbrook did a lot of talking about Rubio after the Game 3 loss to the Jazz. Let’s see if he can back it up on the court. Carmelo has been struggling this season and “Playoff P” hasn’t done much since Game 1. I think this will be a close game so I am taking the points. Donovan Mitchell and Rubio have been fun to watch this series.

10-11-1 on NBA Playoffs up 2.35 units

76ers did just enough to cover and win the game vs. the Heat. J.J. Redick had 24 points on 2-9 shooting from 3-point land. Wade looked pretty good. Anthony Davis, Playoff Rondo, and Jrue swept the Blazers. The T’Wolves balanced attack got one back against the Rockets. The Jazz took the series lead over the Thunder. Rubio dropped the triple double. Melo shot well..

It is an overs kinda Sunday. The playoffs have lower over values, so I will take them.

Celtics Bucks over 203 for 2 units. Every game has gone over this series. Why quit now?

Warriors Spurs over 205 for 2 units. Last two games have gone over in this one. First game missed the over by 1 point.

Raptors ML at -134 for 1 unit. Bounce back game. DeRozan and crew can’t let the Wizards back in this series. Ibaka needs to have a big game.

Cavs -1 for 4 units. Said if the Cavs lost the last game, I would bet them heavy in this game. Here we are. Lebron will score 35+ points.

 

16-15 on MLB down 2.09 units

Tigers ML at -160 for 3 units. Skoglund fade. Skoglund has given up 17 baserunners and 2 home runs in 9 innings this season. Liriano has been pitching better than Skoglund this season. Tigers are getting hot, Royals are not.

Pirates ML at +126 for 2 units. This game is a coin flip according to me. So I will take the team at plus money. Pirates have beat the Phillies 3 games in a row and now get Trevor Williams on the mound.

 

29-29-4 in Hockey up 6.63 units

Penguins ML at -158 for 3 units. Penguins are banged up, but I think a lot of their game-time decisions will play (Malkin, Geno, and Hornqvist). Matt Murray got outplayed in the last game, that will be hard to repeat for the Flyers. Crosby should be able to do enough in this one for the Penguins. I like this spot.

9-8-1 on NBA Playoffs up 6.41 units

Lebron got outscored by Bojan Bogdanovic and the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead over the Cavs. Bogdanovic is a 40% 3 point shooter this season and Bojan can guard Lebron. Jeez. John Wall and the Wizards smacked the Raptors. I thought Lowry and DeRozan would step up. Bucks poured it on in Game 3 and may have figured out the Celtics even though they are down 2-1.

76ers -3.5 for 2 units. Embiid is back. Simmons is nice. 76ers hit the 3 better in Game 3. I think that will continue. Whiteside got in foul trouble and played few minutes. Hassan’s lack of play seems to be a theme in this series. Justise Winslow scored a season high last time out, but I think the 76ers will be too much for the Heat here.

Blazers +7 for 1 unit. They can’t get swept can they?

Rockets -5.5 for 3 units. A change of scenery isn’t going to stop Harden and CP3. Timberwolves missed their chance to make this a series in Game 1. Harden had a bad game last time out and the Rockets still won by 20.

Thunder +4.5 for 2 units. Too many points I think. Westbrook and Crew will be better than Game 2. Thunder were up after the 3rd quarter in the last game, then Westbrook, Carmelo, and Playoff P went 0-14 in the 4th. That won’t happen again.