Month: September 2018

Tennis

Tennis September 26th

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45-19-2 on tennis up 18.21 units

Got hurt last time out when Nadal got hurt in his match vs Del Potro. Back on the tennis game today.

Joao Sousa at -140 for 3 units. Sousa did well in the US Open losing to the eventual champion Djokovic in the round of 16. Pospisil has been playing better of late, but Sousa still leads the H2H series 3-0. I just think these players are in similar form, but Sousa is the better player so I will take him at these decent odds.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas at -172 for 3 units. Viktor Troicki is in poor form. Ramos-Vinolas has won the last two H2H meetings. Troicki got his first win since May due to his opponent retiring. Just a big gap in form here.

Tsitsipas at -195 for 4 units. 12 months ago Pierre Hughes Herbert would have been the favorite in this match, but Stefanos has come a long way and is one of my favorite players on tour now. Herbert lost in straight sets in his last tournament, but has already beat No. 53 Dusan Lajovic in this first round of this one. Tsitsipas game has improved so much this season and he will want a win here to improve his ranking and on his poor performance in the Asian swing last season. Herbert has a big serve, but Tsitsipas has the ability to break him enough times to win this match.

Baseball

MLB September 25th

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69-68 on the MLB up 4.70 units

Dodgers -2.5 at +115 for 2 units. Walker Buehler has an ERA below 1.80 in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks bullpen is tired. Dodgers offensive lineup will be too much for the Diamondbacks here again. Dbacks seem to have given up a little bit.

Cubs at -162 for 4 units. Cubs had 9 baserunners last night and scored only 1 run. That 1 run was a Cole Hamels homer. That won’t happen again obviously, but they will string together some more hits today. Cubs feel the Brewers on their tails and will want to get a win here. The pressure is on. Been fading Chris Archer all year and not going to stop now. Cubs will hit more than one homer tonight. Mike Montgomery only allowed 1 earned run last time out.

Cardinals at -112 for 2 units. Gio Gonzalez has not pitched all that well since his trade to the Brewers, but last time out he was sterling. Austin Gomber only has 1 loss on the season. Gio allowed 5 runs the last time out against the Cards. Cards blew it last night and need a win here for the final wild card spot.

Soccer

Soccer September 24th

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25-17-3 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.31 units

Ronaldo and Juventus got the half push/half win last time out. Let’s keep it rolling, I want to be up 40 units but the end of the calendar year. Might seem a bit bold, but I like having goals.

Real Sociedad at -170 for 3 units. Alaves beat Rayo Vallecano 5-1 last time out. Rayo have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Alberto Garcia has conceded 10 goals on only 21 shots as goalkeeper for Rayo Vallecano this season. Willian Jose (Sociedad’s leading scorer) should be back for this one. Real Sociedad have averaged over 2.5 goals a game at home in their last 15 at home. They barely lost to Barcelona 2-1 recently at home.

Atletico Madrid at -381 for 3 units. Just a huge gap in talent between Atletico and Huesca. Atletico will control this game, they have kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 12 La Liga games at home. Madrid needs a win here as 10 teams are tied or within 3 points of them in the final champions league spot. I know it is early in the season, but Atletico won’t want to fall too far behind Real and Barca. Diego Simeone and his club will take care of business today. This line should be closer to -500.

Freiburg pk, +½ at -110 for 3 units. Schalke are looking to avoid a fifth straight defeat here. Schalke have given up 3 corner goals already in this young season. Freiburg have scored 3 goals in their each of their last two games. I don’t think the gap in talent is different for these two teams so I will take the underdog that is in better form here.

Hockey

Hockey September 25th

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7-3-2 on Hockey this season up 14.39 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

You know what it is. NHL hasn’t started their regular season, but I still have some Finnish overs for you. If you haven’t bet these before, start today. I am up 14 units already in this young season and I expect that to continue today. My book has the overs set at 4.5. That is a whole goal lower than what I think they should be set at.

Jukurit/TPS over 4.5 at -134 for 5 units. Every Jukurit game this season has pushed or gone over. The last 4 TPS Turku games have gone over. 3 of the past 4 meetings between these two teams have gone over. Both teams are averaging well over 3 goals a game. Juhana Aho did not look all that great as goalie last time out for Jukurit. Run it.

HPK/Karpat over 4.5 at -126 for 3 units. HPK’s defense looked awful last time out giving up 6 goals. Karpat did not get a goal last time out, but Hameenlinna may be just the anecdote they need to get some goals. Don’t feel as confident with this one as Jukurit, but they are Finnish overs so I am always confident.

Last time I didn’t put this quote at the bottom and I had my first losing day of the season in hockey, so call it superstition, but Aladdin said it best, “Do you trust me?”

Baseball

MLB September 24th

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69-67 on the MLB up 6.70 units

The Braves, Indians, and Red Sox have all clinched their division. The Astros are close to clinching the AL West, but they already have a playoff spot secured. The Yankees have clinched a wild card berth, and the Athletics need a couple more wins to clinch theirs. The only drama left in the regular season is who will win the NL Central and the NL West. The will be an odd team out between the Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, and Brewers. It is looking like it will be the Rockies.

Cubs at -149 for 2 units. Cubs are 47-27 at home while the Pirates are 34-40 on the road. Cubs hit better, have a better team ERA, and a better BAA, so it is no surprise that the Cubs are in the playoffs and the Pirates are not. A Cubs win here would put them that much closer to clinching the division. Hamels had a 1.57 ERA with his new team before his disastrous outing last time out. I think that was an accident more than a trend.

Soccer

Soccer September 23rd

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24-17-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 16.51 units

Juventus -1½,-2 for 4 units. Ronaldo got red carded in the champions league game midweek and Juve still went on to win 2-0. Frosinone has a -10 goal differential on the season and they just don’t have the talent to keep up with this Juve team. Ronaldo had a brace in his last Serie A game. He will be looking to build off of that today. Frosinone have given up an average of 2.3 goals a game since getting promoted and it is not hard to see that average going up today.

Football

NFL September 23rd

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7-7-1 on NFL down 4.16 units

Cowboys +2 for 3 units. Cowboys defensive line looked great against the Giants. Seahawks offensive line struggled against Da Bears and I expect that to continue today. Dak looked a lot better last week than he did in week 1. Tavon Austin, Hurns, and Cole Beasley should be able to do enough here. Give the ball to Elliot should be the Cowboys’ game plan every week. Cowboys have 9 sacks in 2 games and I expect that to continue.

Dolphins -3 for 3 units. Ryan Tannehill has looked solid this season. Raiders have been scoring consistently, but they just don’t have the defense without that Mack guy.

Chiefs -6.5 for 5 units. Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and Travis Kelce will be too much for San Francisco to keep up with. Jimmy G has 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the season. Mahomes has been the story in the NFL so far in this young season. Chiefs only have 2 sacks on the season and are giving up more than 4 yards a rushing attempt. This could be a high scoring game, but I think the Chiefs do enough to cover.

Bears -5.5 for 4 units. I think the Cardinals are the worst team in the league along with the Bills. Sam Bradford has had trouble sustaining drives and now he meets Khalil Mack and the Bears solid defense.

Jaguars -9 for 2 units. Titans swept the Jaguars last season. That won’t happen again. Titans will be missing two o linemen and two defensive backs. Mariota is not fully healthy. Send it.

Jaguars/Titans over 40 for 1 unit. I think the Jaguars run it up a little here.

Patriots -6.5 for 4 units. Bill vs his former assistant. Thought this line would be at 8 points so I will bite. Lions have already lost to the Jets and 49ers this season. Patriots lost last week and are mad about that. I expect the Pats to come out with an intensity that has not been seen from them so far this season.

Baseball

MLB September 21st

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67-66 on the MLB up 4.78 units

The Red Sox beat the Yankees and clinched the AL East last night. The Athletics beat the Angels 21-3.

Red Sox at +120 for 2 units. Trevor Bauer may be a little rusty after coming off the DL here. Chris Sale has 222 strikeouts on the season. Sale does not have the best history against the Indians, but I like him here.

Brewers at -132 for 2 units. Brewers are 5-11 vs the Pirates this season. That win total should regress towards the mean. These two starting pitchers have been solid for most of this season. Nova is going for a three game win streak here for the Pirates.

Diamondbacks at -118 for 2 units. Rockies have an awful bullpen. Greinke is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts against the Rockies this season. Diamondbacks need to get back on track here and I think they do.

Soccer

Soccer September 21st

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23-17-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 14.17 units

Sassuolo at +117 for 2 units. Sassuolo looked solid vs Juventus, but then Ronaldo got a brace. Empoli have not won in Mapei Statium for over nine years. Babacar, Berardi, and Boateng should be enough to get the win over Empoli here. Empoli are scoring less than a goal a game this season.