NFL September 30th

11-13-1 on NFL down 5.34 units

Went up over 10 units and then down over 10 units already on this NFL season. Had a good read on the Thursday night game and I am going to keep that going. I have won a lot of money since Tha Carter V came out. I thank Wayne. Causation.

People said the Vikings defense could stop Sean McVay on the road on a short week… lol. Anthony Barr got burnt over and over again. Barr was drafted 4 picks before Aaron Donald in the 2014 draft.

Packers at -380 for 6 units. Packers won’t take the Bills for granted like the Vikings did last week. Rodgers does not lose at home very often. Green Bay averages over 100 more yards per game on offense than the Bills. Packers have a problem getting off the field on 3rd down (45% third down conversion allowed), they had to have made that a focus this week. Packers only win this year was when Aaron was all hopped up on pain pills against the Bears. They get back to winning here.

Colts at -105 for 3 units. Texans are 0-3 and now travel to Indy. Colts gave the Eagles all they could handle last week. This Colts defense finally looks like a NFL defense allowing 21 points a game. Houston is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games, while Indy is 4-1 ATS. Weak offensive lines in this one, Hopkins and Hilton will prolly go off.

Andrew Luck over 263 passing yards at -145 for 2 units. Luck threw for 319 yards in his only other home game this season. Shoulder should be back to “basically 100%.” The over/under for this game is 48, which is a little above average. Could turn into a shootout.

Seahawks -3 for 2 units. This is one of those games that I want to bet a lot on, but I feel like I shouldn’t. Seahawks have not played well on the road this season, but they should be favored by more against the Cards right? Cardinals only convert 23% of their third downs on offense and now they meet Earl Thomas. Seattle averages over 100 yards per game more on offense than Arizona does on offense. Also, Seattle has a better defense… I can go on and on.

Chris Carson over 66 rushing yards at +114 for 4 units. Seattle gets up and runs him. Seattle gave him the ball 32 times on the ground last game and they won. That should be their formula like it was when they had the Legion of Boom and Beast Mode.

Browns +3 for 3 units. Baker Mayfield and their lottery pick defense gets the job done here. That is all.

Ravens +3 for 3 units. Steelers have not looked all that solid this season. I think this game should be a push so I will take the points. Justin Tucker could be the difference in this one. The man just doesn’t miss field goals. Big Ben is going to sacked multiple times in this one. Suggs is solid against the run and we all know what he can do as a pass rusher. JuJu and Antonio Brown can always go off and screw me here, but I like what I have seen from the Ravens so far this year. Steelers have an awful secondary. John Brown will have a big game.

Tennis September 30th

48-21-2 on tennis up 21.83

Fabio Fognini at -202 for 4 units. My favorite player on tour. Mr. Fognini. The Italian number 1 is going for his 4th title on the season. That would be an Italian record. Fognini has been so consistent this season compared to past years. Bernard Tomic has done well to make it this far and I believe in him (won money on him this tournament), just not against Fognini. Tomic does not have the results against this level of competition. Tomic said it himself, “Fabio is playing ridiculous.”

Pierre-Hugues Hebert at +106 for 3 units. Hebert’s serve will be too strong. Nishioka has already retired in 5 matches this season and has to be a little tired in making it to the final. This is Hebert’s second ever final and Yoshihito’s first. One of these two will get their maiden tour win. Hebert one the only other meeting in straight sets. A lot of people are saying Nishioka is the better player, but I don’t see it.

Hebert/Nishioka over 22.5 games for 1 unit. Even if this game only goes two sets, I could see it being a tie breaker both times. I see it going 3 sets though.

Soccer September 30th

30-21-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 19.47 units

3-0-1 yesterday. I thought Hazard and Chelsea were going to give me my only loss on the day, but then Sturridge happened. Seriously, click that link.. that goal is absurd. Dortmund was down 2-0, but came back against Leverkusen to win 4-2. Borussia now have 11 goals in their past two league games. Ronaldo got two more assists for Juventus. He leads the league in assists. Mandzukic scored the brace in the Juve win, after Napoli went up early. Sevilla keeps scoring at will. Andre Silva is the top scorer in La Liga for Sevilla and he got another one in their 3-1 win over Eibar.

Villarreal -1 at -105 for 2 units. Villarreal just has more talent. Layun, Santi Cazorla, and Carlos Bacca all had their moments in Villarreal’s win over Bilbao. Villarreal have not won at home yet this La Liga season, but that will change today.

Eintracht Frankfurt at -108 for 2 units. Sebastian Haller has been Frankfurt’s best player so far this season with 3 goals and 1 assist. Frankfurt is another team that has not won at home yet this season, but that will change today. Hannover have not won an away game in forever (11 months). Frankfurt has won the last two meetings between these two. Hannover could get it together and do something here, but nothing I have seen from them makes me think that will happen on the road.

Burnley pk at +104 for 2 units. Burnley scores more than Cardiff and has a better defense. Ashley Barnes and that Aaron Lennon guy have played well for Burnley this year. There is too much value in this play for me to pass it up. Cardiff has only created 7 clear chances on the season, they scored on 3 of them. Cardiff have given up 15 goals in their past 4 games. Burnley will find the back of the net here.

Soccer September 29th

27-21-4 on Soccer since World Cup up 7.83 units

Borussia Dortmund pk at -126 for 4 units. Dortmund beat Nurnberg 7-0 last time out. Dortmund has kept two clean sheets this season and are tied for best defense in the league by goals allowed. Reus likes playing Leverkusen. He has 7 goals and 3 assists in 12 games against them. Dortmund can move up to first in the league with a win. At worse they tie here.

Sevilla at +120 for 4 units. Sevilla is going for 4 wins in a row here. They just beat Real Madrid 3-0. Now they go on the road to face an average Eibar team. Sevilla has scored 14 goals in their last 3 games! Eibar beat Sevilla 5-1 last time they played. Sevilla will get revenge today. Ben Yedder has 6 goals in his past 3 games for Sevilla.

Liverpool pk at -116 for 4 units. Hazard did a Hazard and Chelsea went on to beat Liverpool in the Cup. Beating Liverpool twice in a row is no easy task. Liverpool are the only team left in the PL with a 100% record. Mane and Salah have been in fine form for a while now. Should be an exciting game, but I am backing the league leaders at this value.

Juventus at -109 for 4 units. Milik who has been in great form for Napoli and is not in the starting lineup today, but Ronaldo is for Juve. Juventus have scored 2 goals or more in 9 of their last 10 home games. Two best teams in the league here. Juve have allowed two goals in just 1 of their past 62 Serie A games at home…

College Football September 28th/29th

12-10 on college football up 2.39 units

Colorado at -320 for 4 units. UCLA has not won a game all season and now they travel to Boulder. Colorado has not lost a game all season. Chip Kelly’s “great” offensive schemes have his UCLA team averaging only 17 points a game and allowing 30 something. I would bet Colorado -10, but UCLA has to play desperate. A hungry dog runs faster and what not. Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr. has a touchdown in every game and has earned his way onto the list for best wide out in the country. This game is worth watching just for him.

Central Michigan +30 for 2 units. Michigan State has not blown anybody out all season. Central Michigan is 1-3, but they are only allowing 140 passing yards per game on the season. Also, they have 5 interceptions in 4 games. Michigan State has been fairly one dimensional this season with the air attack. MSU only has 3 runs over 10 yards. They will get some 10 yard runs in this one, but 30 points is just too much for this in-state game.

Clemson -25 for 2 units. Syracuse beat Clemson last year. Clemson just named Trevor Lawrence their starter and Bryant has decided to transfer. Sunshine, as Trevor is known, places the ball where it needs to be like he is Jared Goff playing the Vikings on a Thursday. Syracuse has a great QB in Eric Dungey, but he will not be able to do enough against this hungry Clemson defense.

Alabama -49 for 3 units. UL Lafayette lost to Mississippi St. by 46. They scored 10 points in that game, Saban will want his Bama team to pitch a shutout. UL has one of the worst run defenses in college football. Not going to overthink this one.

Texas Tech +3.5 for 2 units. Texas Tech leads college football in plays per game. Tech is historically known for their offense – See Pat Mahomes. Tech’s defense is solid this year though in the games I have watched. Grier has thrown a few too many interceptions already in this young season. Going to Texas Tech is not easy, this might be WVU’s toughest game on the schedule.

NC State -6 for 3 units. UVA is not as good as NC State. It is that simple. The Hoos strength on offense is running, while NCSU has one of the best rush defenses in the country. It gets a little tougher here for State, but I like their consistent QB and their 3-0 record.

ECU -7 for 4 units. East Carolina won’t take ODU for granted. Let down game for The Monarchs. ODU gives up over 500 yards a game; whereas, ECU only gives up 320 YPG. Old Dominion gives up over 225 yards a game on the ground and ECU will take advantage of this. ECU won the only other meeting by 14 and I expect more of the same here. This is a must win for ECU, while ODU has already had one of the best seasons in school history (no exaggeration).

VT +4.5 for 5 units. This is make or break for VT. 2-2 does not look good for them. Duke is good on defense, but so is VT besides last week. Ryan Willis takes over for VT here. Duke has not been tested yet and I think this will be a close one. I am taking the points.

Ohio State -3 for 2 units. OSU is just better than Penn State. I thought this line would be OSU -7 so I will bite.

LSU -10 for 5 units. I love this LSU team. Ed O is the man. I need a translator sometimes to understand him, but it is still awesome. He sounds a lot like my uncle when he has a lot of chewing tobacco in his mouth. LSU’s offense does not make mistakes and the Ole Miss defensive front is not as strong as past years. LSU’s defense can shut down Ole Miss to cover here. LSU’s scoring defense is 15th. Ole Miss’s scoring defense is 112th.

Hockey September 28th

9-7-2 on Hockey this season up 5.36 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

Waiting to bet on NHL till the regular season starts. Been watching a little pre-season and I have noticed defense does not seem as important this time of year. Finnish hockey’s regular season is important this time of year though!

HIFK/Pelicans over 5 at -129 for 5 units. HIFK Helsinki have the most goals in the league and they have played a game less than some teams. Erik Thorell has 8 points in 5 games for Helsinki. 3 other players have more than 6 points each in 5 games. This offense is clicking early in the season. Helsinki finished last season strong and they have seemed to pick up right where they left off. 6 of the last 7 domestic games between these two have gone over. Every Helsinki game has gone over this season.

KalPa pk -115 for 2 units. KalPa has lost two in a row, but against better competition than Tappara. KalPa get back on track here.

HIFK pk -120 for 2 units. See above.

TPS pk +116 for 2 units. TPS has 4 players in the top 10 of points in this league. JYP has Eric Perrin. Turku are the better team so this line confuses me a little, but I will bite.

Jukurit pk -121 for 2 units. HPK has lost their last two games by a combined score of 10-2. Jukurit will take advantage of this today.

Tennis September 28th

46-21-2 on tennis up 18.09 units

Got juiced last time out on tennis. Listening to Tha Carter V as I write this so all of these are going to win.

Fabio Fognini at -235 for 4 units. Matthew Ebden has an advantage in the sense that he has played more matches in Asia on the tour than Fognini.. that is where his advantages end. Fognini has seemed to turn a corner this season and is weirdly consistent. Fabio has made it this far twice in Asia and both times he lost to Nadal. He will want to beat his personal best performance. The only person that can motivate Fognini is – well his wife, but besides her – him. Ebden doesn’t have the talent if Fognini is 75% of himself.

Bernard Tomic at +102 for 2 units. Tomic meets the youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime in China today. This is Felix’s maiden quarterfinal appearance. Felix is a lucky loser in this tournament, while Tomic has fought well in 4 close matches. This match could honestly go either way, but I am siding with the experience in this one. Felix has an even brighter future regardless now that he has beat world number 23 Hyeon Chung in this tournament.

 

NFL September 27th

9-12-1 on NFL down 10.88 units

Patriots and Bears were the difference in being up 6 units and down 10 units. Patriots looked like their defense was stuck in mud. I won’t bet them again till Edelman or Josh Gordon show up and do well. If the Patriots lose to the Dolphins this week… Tom Brady might retire at the end of the season.

The Bears game was also hard to swallow. The Bears left Christian Kirk and Ricky Seals-Jones way too open on the opening drive to go down 7-0 on two chunk plays. On the next drive, Mitch took a huge sack in the red zone that “caused” a missed field goal. Those three plays and the Bears fumble on their next possession lead them to not covering. @RotoPat on twitter tweeted out today that Buck Allen has run more routes this season than David Johnson. I would rather have Jeff Fisher calling the plays for my team than Mike McCoy.

These past two NFL weekends have been rough betting wise, but I am taking what I have learned and moving on. I mean the Bills beating the Vikings was the biggest upset in the NFL in 25 years by the numbers, just crazy stuff. Plus, Kanye and Lil Wayne are dropping albums this weekend so that is helping my confidence.

Rams at -325 for 10 units. Max play. Vikings just lost to the Bills at home and now travel west on a short week to play the undefeated Rams. Suh, Donald, Ebukam, and Brockers will make Cousins uncomfortable the whole game. The Bills gave the Rams some could tape to follow on how to disrupt the Vikings offense, mainly Diggs and Thielen. Home team has won 8 of the past 10 Thursday night games. Goff has been completing 70.3% of his passes this season while throwing for 313 yards a game. Rams should win the battle in the trenches, especially with their best pass rusher Everson Griffen out.

Goff over 266 passing yards at -112 for 5 units. He averages over 313 passing yards a game. I mean look at this throw from Goff last week. He is on another level this season. Sean McVay may be the best offensive mind in football. Once the Rams get into the Redzone, they throw to the front of the endzone instead of the back like a lot of teams. It is interesting because defenses will have 5+ defenders in the endzone, but McVay knows they only have to cross the line. McVay essentially calls plays that make defenders obsolete. The Vikings will most likely focus on taking Todd Gurley out of the game. This one seems a little too low.

Stefon Diggs gets 1 touchdown or more at -110 for 2 units. Diggs only had 3 catches last week and the Vikings got smacked by a team that many considered the worst in football. They will feed him against the LA’s depleted secondary.

 

Soccer September 26th

27-18-3 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.83 units

Dusseldorf over 1 at -135 for 3 units. Dusseldorf has scored in every game at home since a club friendly against Dortmund in January.

Dusseldorf +½ at -103 for 2 units. Dusseldorf has scored in every game that their opponent has scored in (they have had one nil-nil draw). Dusseldorf has won both of their home games this season 2-1. Leverkusen may have some more talent with Volland and Leon Bailey, but Adam Bodzek has been a beast in the midfield for Dusseldorf. Bodzek will be on the bench today so expect him to come on as a super sub.

Barcelona at -417 for 5 units. Barcelona tied their last La Liga game. They won’t go winless for two in a row. That draw was more of a credit to Girona playing great than Barcelona playing poorly. Messi has 8 goals in his last 6 La Liga fixtures!

Barcelona -1½, -2 at -110 for 2 units. Leganes just does not have the talent or technique to keep this game within a goal. Leganes has been losing at halftime and fulltime in all of their matches with Barcelona so far.

Real Madrid at -121 for 2 units. Real Madrid have failed to win in their last 3 trips to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Sevilla is always solid at home, but I think Real does enough here to pull out a win. Ben Yedder and Sevilla have been scoring goals at will these past two games (11 goals for Sevilla), but the competition ramps up quite a few notches here. Bale, Modric, and Benzema will be too much offense for Sevilla’s average defense to control. Sevilla’s opponents have had success attacking up the left side and I expect to see that from Los Blancos today.

 

Hockey September 26th

7-5-2 on Hockey this season up 6.39 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

The well seems to be running dry on these Finnish overs, but I am going to give it one more go since I am still up 6 units. Both games were one goal away from the over hitting yesterday.

Pelicans/Jukurit over 5 at -115 for 4 units.

Tappara/Lukko over 5 at +107 for 3 units.

KooKoo/HIFK over 5.5 at -115 for 3 units.

Assat/SaiPa over 5.5 at -103 for 3 units.