Hockey September 21st

7-2-1 on Hockey this season up 18.39 units

Overs this week in Finland are 6-1-2. The over lines will eventually go up to 5.5 or 6. Going to keep riding them. Here are the two I like today.

SaiPa/Pelicans over 5 at -127 for 4 units. SaiPa have former Penn State player David Goodwin on their team. Goodwin has two goals and three assists in three games. SaiPa has one of the better offenses in the league in this young season. Every game this season has gone over for the Pelicans (only 2). Seems like an easy one here.

Karpat/Jukurit over 5 at -103 for 3 units. Karpat have struggled to get much offense going this season, but that could easily change today. Jukurit have scored four goals in each of their last two games. Just have a hunch about this one.

Soccer September 19th

20-17-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 6.38 units

Got juiced yesterday. PSG had it! What a great game between Liverpool and PSG at Anfield. Dortmund and Atletico pulled through after both had a shaky first half. Messi broke the tie with Ronaldo for most champions league hat tricks all time (8). Messi made one of his patented left-footed-over-the-wall-upper-corner free kicks. After that he had a left footed one time goal and a right footed placement goal. Messi has more champions league goals than PSV has in their history. That isn’t a stab at PSV either. Guy is unreal, Ronaldo knows what happened…..

Bayern at -200 for 4 units. Benfica scored once and lost all 6 champions league games last season. Now they face the German giants. Bayern has beat Benfica in their last 6 champions league matches. Thomas Muller is in form, which it seems like it has been a while since I have been able to say that. Robben is healthy and James Rodriquez is still killing it. Pizzi has been in phenomenal form for Benfica, but it won’t be enough here.

Juventus at -132 for 4 units. Ronaldo in the champions league is like Eminem in a rap battle.. you don’t bet against them. That is all.

Manchester United at -145 for 4 units. Romelu Lukaku scored 5 goals in his last tie with Young Boys back when he played for Everton. United have looked better recently after their shaky start to the season. Juventus and Valencia along with these two teams make it a tough group. United will want to get a win here in the “easiest” away match this group will offer them.

 

Hockey September 19th

6-2 on Hockey this season up 14.79 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

2-0 yesterday. Not going to quit betting Finnish overs now. It is too easy. I’ve said it twice now, but I will say it again, I am not going to stop till they raise these overs to 5.5 or 6. Some books are not offering the JYP/Jukurit over which is fishy. I would stay away from the Hameenlinna/Assat over because neither team there is averaging over two goals a game.

Tappara/KooKoo over 5 at -110 for 4 units. KooKoo has given up 13 goals in two games. 13! Tappara has struggled to score this season, but KooKoo is just the cure they need.

Ilves/SaiPa over 5 at -130 for 5 units. SaiPa has played 2 games this season and those 2 games have seen 22 goals. 22! Ilves has played 2 games this season and those 2 games have seen 10 goals. SaiPa plays up and down high scoring hockey. This line should be 6 goals. Let it ride.

I’ve quoted Aladdin thrice now but he said it best, “Do you trust me?”

Soccer September 18th

18-15-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 6.55 units

Champions league group stage is here.

Tottenham pk for 2 units. Neither of these teams are in the best form as Inter just lost to Parma while Tottenham just lost to Watford and Liverpool. The Nerazzurri do well at home against English competition historically, but I believe in this Tottenham squad. Eriksen looked solid over the international break (assist vs Liverpool too) and I expect him to pull the strings here for Kane and others. Nainggolan and Perisic are two of my favorite players in Fifa and in real life, but Inter does not have much else going on. I think the Spurs attack can do enough to Inter’s backline to draw or win this game.

Atletico Madrid at -128 for 4 units. Monaco does not have a win in their last 4 matches and now Atletico comes to town. Antoine Griezmann and Diego Simeone will come out firing this group stage after not getting past this stage last season. Atletico did win the Europa League, but Madrid wants more. Falcao and Monaco are no slouches, but Atletico’s defense turns it up a notch here.

PSG +.5 at -123 for 3 units. PSG to win or draw? I will bite. Liverpool have been one of the best teams in Europe over the past year, but I think Cavani, Di Maria, Verratti, Draxler, Neymar, Mbappe, and Thiago Silva are getting disrespected with this line. PSG are built for Champions league and I think they at least get a draw out of their trip to Anfield. Salah and Mane have been in arguably the best form in the world over the past 9 months, but this will be a close exciting game. PSG have scored 3 or more goals in 5 consecutive matches.

Dortmund at -122 for 2 units. Dortmund looked great vs Frankfurt and I expect that to carry over here. Reus, Dahoud, and Wolf had some solid chemistry in that game. Club Brugge have had a great start to their season, but the competition ramps up tremendously here. Dortmund, similarly to Atletico, failed to advance past this stage last season and they will want to get off to a great start here. Just a little extra motivation. Jadon Sancho has two assists in 3 games for Dortmund domestically. Brugge have scored first in 7 of their last 8 games, so if Dortmund can score first, Brugge will be uncomfortable.

 

Hockey September 18th

4-2 on Hockey this season up 8.01 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

If you follow me you already know what it is. Finnish overs. Not gonna quit till I have a losing day on them. Going to stay away from Lukko though because they have looked pretty bad at the start of this season.

HIFK/Vaasan Sport over 5 at -130 for 4 units. Every Helsinki game has gone over this domestic season and they last time these two teams met it went over.

Karpat/TPS over 5 at -108 for 4 units.

Aladdin said it best, “Do you trust me?”

 

MLB September 17th

Blue Jays at -136 for 6 units. Not a full writeup because I am running out of time. Evan Phillips will not win this game for the O’s. Ryan Borucki has been fine for the Blue Jays. Both teams are out of contention but the Blue Jays just beat the Yankees twice.

NFL September 17th

7-5-1 on NFL up 1.84 units

Josh Gordon has been traded to the Patriots for a 5th round pick. No New England receiver had more than 50 yards last week so this will be a good experiment at worse. Pats lost to the Jaguars by 11. The Saints beat the Browns in an ugly game that the Browns browned away. The Chargers beat the Bills behind solid games from Derwin James, Phil Rivers, and Melvin Gordon. Phillip’s sperm has a higher completion percentage than Nathan Peterman (Source: PFT).

Patrick Mahomes has the most passing touchdowns in the first two NFL starts ever (10). Big Ben tried to keep up with the kid, but just did not have enough. AB is mad people are saying Big Ben made Antonio who he is… AB said trade me if you think that. The Colts beat the Redskins behind TY Hilton. The Colts did not look all that much better than the Redskins as they had less yards and more turnovers, but the scoreboard is all that matters.

Sam Darnold came back to earth with two interceptions in the Jets loss to the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill looked really good, but he is still the 3rd best QB in Florida behind Fitzpatrick and Bortles. Fitzpatrick was 27-33 with 402 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. Ryan had a fantastic press conference where he was dressed as a cross between Connor McGregor and DeSean Jackson. The chest hair was his though. Winston should not get his job back. This is like the inverse of the Dak/Tony Romo situation.

The Falcons beat the Panthers. Cam played great, but CJ Anderson and Funchess displayed some butter fingers. The Panthers weirdly could not stop the run so credit the Falcons offensive line and Tevin Coleman. Matt Ryan had 2 rushing touchdowns. Ito Smith looked like a good running back for the Falcons. Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore both looked great as well.

The Titans beat the Texans and the difference in the game was the Titans fake punt touchdown. Blaine Gabbert actually looked decent. Will Fuller V and DeAndre Hopkins are both solid, but the Texans just could not get enough going. The Rams smacked the Cardinals and Todd Gurley ran all over them. Are the Rams the best team ever? Let’s watch them play someone besides the Raiders and Cardinals before we decide.

Matt Breida went off against the Lions. The Lions are now 0-2 but Stafford looked a lot better this week. The lions need a defense and a running back. Broncos came back from down double digits to beat the Raiders. Manny Sanders and McManus did enough for the Broncos. Marshawn Lynch is back to his touchdown scoring ways it seems. The Cowboys beat the Giants. Eli didn’t target OBJ enough and did not really throw downfield at all. The Giants spent some money and draft picks on the offensive line but they still looked garbage. Rodney Marinelli drew up a great defensive gameplan for Dallas that included a lot of slot blitzes that lead to the Dallas win.

Tonight’s picks:

Bears/Seahawks over 42.5 for 3 units. Both games in week 1 for these teams went over this total. Jordan Howard should find the endzone. Seahawks have a lot of injuries on defense. Mitch and this new offense should be able to get in the 20s if not higher. Bears won’t let off the gas after getting come back on last week.

Wilson over 240.5 passing yards at -112 for 4 units. I expect Wilson to be throwing all over the place. The line favors the Bears so the game trends lean towards the Seahawks being down, which means Wilson will be throwing. Wilson had 298 yards in week 1. This seems a little too low. Khalil Mack is a beast, but I think Wilson will get over this number. There is no Doug Baldwin, but Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly should be able to pick up the slack. I am hoping for a Tyler Lockett bomb in this one to send the over easily.

 

 

 

NFL September 16th

5-2-1 on NFL up 8.98 units

Texans at -150 for 5 units. Deshaun Watson will play better this week. The Texans hung in with the Patriots and that translates well to this game. JJ Watt is a beast and the game is in Houston. Delanie Walker is a huge loss for the Titans. I think they should sign Dez personally. The Titans are missing offensive linemen and that is never good against one of the best defensive lines in the league. This one should be closer to -225. Hammer it.

Chargers at -310 for 3 units. Bills fade.

49ers -6 for 2 units. I don’t believe in Jimmy G and that is why I bet the Vikings so heavy last week. The Lions are not the Vikings.. I know, groundbreaking info. The lions will be missing multiple offensive linemen and possibly Ansah. The 49ers defense had some solid penetration last week and I expect that to show up even more this week.

Rams -13 for 2 units. Not going to overthink this one. Rams are one of the best teams in the league and the Cardinals are one of the worst. Gurley will run down their throats in the second half just like he did last week.

Panthers +6 for 3 units. Keanu Neal is out for the Falcons and that means Christian McCaffrey, Cam Newton, and whoever else runs the ball for the Panthers will find a lot more daylight. Greg Olsen is out for the Panthers, but they can overcome that. These rivalry games are usually close which adds to my confidence in this pick. I truly believe the Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL this year and I expect them to do well in this spot. The Falcons have not won a game in the pre, regular, or postseason since they beat the Rams in early January.

Soccer September 16th – Zlatan Ibrahimovic

17-14-2 on Soccer since World Cup up 8.40 units

Zlatan scored his 500th goal in true Ibra fashion. Yeah, he knows taekwondo. I mean the LA Galaxy have an overpaid shitty defense, but Zlatan is amazing. Even Toronto’s fans gave a standing ovation for this goal. Some of my other Zlatan favorites (he has so many to choose from, but these are top 500) are his bicycle kick vs England and his superb solo goal for Ajax. 

Now on to the plays.

Juventus at -417 for 5 units. Sassuolo have not lost a game all season. Juventus will not underestimate them. Juventus have won 9 out of their last 10 games at home in Turin. Mario Mandzukic has been in great from since the start of the World Cup really, but more recently, he has scored in the past two games. Kevin-Prince Boateng is one of my favorite players in Serie A and he has been scoring for Sassuolo. Ronaldo only has one assist and no goals domestically since coming to Italy, that will most likely change today.

Sevilla at -145 for 3 units. Sevilla at home. Sevilla lost the “Andalusian derby” to Betis last time out, but they have looked great in Europa League.. what’s new? Getafe has one of the best defenses in Spain, but Sevilla is not an easy place to play. Jorge Molina will hope to be a factor for Getafe as he used to play for Sevilla’s rival Betis. Sevilla’s last two loses at home that were not friendlies were against Barcelona and Bayern..

 

 

 

Hockey September 15th

2-1 on Hockey this season up 3.11 units

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

The Finnish overs were good to me again. Not gonna quit a good thing.

KooKoo/SaiPa over 5 at -140 for 5 units.

TPS/Assat over 5 at -132 for 3 units.

Lukko/Pelicans over 5 at -102 for 3 units.

Until these overs start getting up to 5.5 and 6, I am going to keep hammering them. NHL pre-season starts today, but who cares when you have Finland regular season hockey. I don’t mean to sound redundant, but Aladdin said it best “Do you trust me?”