Tennis October 5th

53-26-3 on tennis up 20.15 units

Fabio Fognini at -193 for 5 units. The only question for Fabio and winning tennis matches is his motivation. Fognini wants his Italian-record-setting 4th ATP tour win on the season. Fabio has been consistent this season. He has competed in the Asian swing of the tour for more than a decade and this is his first season making two quarterfinals. This has been his best season by far on hard courts with 17 wins. It will be 18 after today. This is Marton Fucsovics first time in this tournament. He has already impressed, but he does not have the talent and athleticism Fognini has.

Kevin Anderson at -131 for 3 units. Anderson has won the past two meetings on hard courts, even though Richard Gasquet leads the H2H 6-4. Anderson has been in better form lately. Gasquet’s win over Krygios does not impress me much. Krygios played horribly. Anderson should be a -175 favorite so I will bite.

NFL October 4th

15-16-3 on NFL down 3.48 units

Just can’t seem to get over the hump on my NFL bets. I have made some poor decisions like betting against the Seahawks in their home opener, they just looked so bad against the Cowboys the week before. You bet and you learn, you make more wagers and you earn… or bridges burn.

Patrick Mahomes showed a lot of poise in Kansas City’s win over the Broncos at Mile High Stadium. Everyone is raving about his weak-handed throw to Tyreek Hill while almost getting sacked for the first down. It was amazing play, but I would hope NFL quarterbacks not named Eli Manning/Sam Bradford/Brandon Weeden could make that play. Yes, Brandon Weeden is still on a NFL roster. Andy Reid’s team always start out hot. They beat the Patriots 42-27 to start last season. Mahomes is clearly good, but I want to see him play when it gets cold before I start calling him the next Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre like a lot of people are.

Patriots -10 at -110 for 2 units. TY Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle, left tackle Anthony Castanzo, and cornerbacks Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore will be out for the Colts. Needless to say, missing two cornerbacks against Tom Brady is not good. Brady will find the holes in this cover 2 zone defense. Brady is 5-0 against Luck. I don’t think the Colts can stop Gronk with Edelman back. One of them is going to eat. James White is still awesome. Sony Michel and Josh Gordon are talented as well. TY Hilton against Jonathon Jones was a favorable matchup for the Colts, but Hilton is out. A 31-17 type scoreline seems right for this one. Patriots are 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 when favored by double digits.

Patriots to score in each quarter at +100 for 2 units. Patriots have scored in every quarter of every home game so far this season.

Soccer Europe League October 4th

35-25-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 22.73 units

Champions League was awesome yesterday. The highlights were Neymar’s hat-trick (including two free kick goals) and this screaming volley by Rakitic. On to Europa…

Sevilla at -105 for 5 units. Sevilla are the hottest team in Europe right now. Sevilla has scored 17 goals in their last 4 games, which included a 3-0 win against Real Madrid. This will be Krasnodar and Sevilla’s first ever meeting. Krasnodar have been doing well in Russia, as they just beat Zenit 3-0. Quincy Promes just transferred from Russia to Sevilla and enjoyed playing Krasnodar in his time there (4 goals in 8 games). Ben Yedder and Banega both had two goals in the first group game for Sevilla. Ben Yedder is 6th and Andre Silva is 1st in La Liga in goals scored, not Messi, Suarez, Bale, Aspas, or Benzema. Krasnodar, even at home, won’t be able to keep up with Sevilla’s offense.

Arsenal at -250 for 4 units. Arsenal have won 7 in a row. They will want to win this game to essentially secure the group early on. Aubameyang had two goals last time out in this competition. Qarabag have only won one game at home against teams from the better leagues in the group stage. Arsenal are on a 25 year European trophy drought. They take one more step towards ending that today.

Besiktas pk/-.5 at +102 for 2 units. Besiktas just have more talent than Malmo. Besiktas has not lost a game since August 28th. The Istanbul club has scored first in each of their last 6 matches. Ryan Babel, Pepe, Quaresma, Negredo, Vagner Love, Gonul, and Hutchinson should show enough class to get a win here.

Tennis October 4th

52-26-3 on tennis up 16.52 units

Kevin Anderson at -193 for 7 units. Anderson has made it past the second round in 13 of 14 tournaments this season. Tiafoe has already lost Anderson twice this season. Tiafoe got away from his losing ways by beating out of form Marterer. He is not in good enough form to beat Anderson.