54-27-3 on tennis up 18.86 units
Richard Gasquet at -220 for 6 units. This is an in-form fit player against an out-of-form player lacking fitness. Leonardo Mayer has not won a match since August 20th. Gasquet got to the semi-finals last week and made it to the quarterfinals of this tournament last season. Gasquet finally looks to be getting back to his former World #7 form. Mayer just does not have the match time to win this one. The two things keeping me from making this a max play are that Mayer won the most recent meeting between these and that Mayer almost beat Federer in this tournament in 2014.
Marton Fucsovics at -145 for 2 units. Fucsovics is just in better form than Peter Gojowczyk. Gojowczyk’s two most recent wins are against out-of-form players Tsonga and Jack Sock. Marton made it to the quarterfinal last week in Beijing before losing to Fabio Fognini. The H2H is tied at 1-1, but Fucsovics won the most recent meeting. Not much between these two, so I will take the player that is playing better tennis.