Month: October 2018

Football

College Football – Air Force at UNLV

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23-21 on college football down 6.13 units

Air Force at -410 for 4 units.

Air Force -10 for 2 units. UNLV’s lack of defense will get exposed for the third straight game here. Backup QB here for UNLV. Max Gilliam has completed less than 48% of his passes for UNLV, which leads to too many 3 and outs. UNLV leads the league in rushing, but the injury their starting QB, Armani Rogers, makes that stat obsolete. The Running Rebels allow over 240 yards rushing a game and that is what Air Force does best.

Basketball

NBA October 19th – Russell Westbrook’s Season Debut

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The Lebron Lakers lost to the Blazers by 9 in Portland last night. LA’s defense obviously needs to improve, but I don’t think they are going to win 48 games this season if they don’t go get a deep threat. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Lance Stephenson are their best 3-point shooters right now. When the Cavs were at their best with Lebron, they had 3 sharpshooters spreading the floor. Lonzo, Ingram, and Kuzma are all talented, but they are not shooters. Lillard is still good, but Nik Stauskas went off for Portland shooting 5-8 from deep and finishing with 24 points. Lebron is now 0-4 in season debuts with new teams.

Miami covered the spread and sneaked out a win against the Wizards. Same old story for Washington, Beal and Wall go off, but coaching and bench play hold them back. Josh Richardson was the best player in the Heat for this one. Dwayne Wade came off the bench and missed the game winning shot, but Olynyk got the putback for the win.

The Bulls scored 58 first half points, but still lost to Philly by 19. Ben Simmons had some dimes and got his triple double. Embiid dropped 30. LaVine dropped 30. Covington played a lot better for the 76ers in this game than he did against the Celtics.

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

1-2 on NBA this season down 1.12 units

I want to bet the Hornets -2.5, but the public is betting them heavy and I am a Hornets fan so I am going to stay away. Too much emotional attachment and all that. Another game I want to place a wager on is Raptors/Celtics. All the money is on Boston +3, but the line hasn’t moved which makes me want to bet Toronto. Kawhi looked good in his first game for the Raptors and had this absurd play.

Thunder +1 for 3 units. Dennis Schroder, Paul George, and Steven Adams all looked good in the season opener, and now they get Westbrook back. Clippers don’t have the offense or defensive anchor without DeAnder Jordan. The Warriors got 17 offensive rebounds against Oklahoma City, the Thunder will make sure that doesn’t happen against the Clippers tonight.

Nets -3.5 for 3 units. Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe will play in this one. No Porzingis. Spencer Dinwiddie was frustrated with the close loss to the Pistons. I think this Brooklyn team is pretty good. The Knicks win against the Hawks doesn’t impress me. Nets win by 8 or more.

Warriors at -143 for 2 units. Jazz were the only team in the NBA to beat the Warriors 3 times last season. Golden State won’t let that happen again. That is all.

Bucks at -165 for 2 units. I like both of these teams a lot. If the Bucks can outlast Kemba and the Hornets drilling 3s all night, they can beat the Pacers. Also, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Timberwolves/Grizzlies Parlay for 1 unit to win 0.72 units. Cavs and Hawks are not good. Grizzlies will win their home opener. Timberwolves barely lost to the Spurs. They have too much talent to let Kevin Love beat his old team here.

Soccer

Soccer October 19th – Dusseldorf at Eintracht Frankfurt

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37-29-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 15.11 units

Frankfurt at -120 for 2 units.

Frankfurt over 1.5 goals at -125 for 2 units. Frankfurt have scored 8 goals in their last two home games. They scored 13 goals in a club friendly recently. Wasn’t a competitive game, but can’t hurt confidence. Sebastien Haller has been in great form this season for Eintracht Frankfurt. Dusseldorf’s keeper, Micheal Rensing, has given up 7 goals in his past 3 games against below average competition. Frankfurt has scored in every game this season.

Tennis

Tennis October 19th – European Open

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65-33-4 on tennis up 17.00 units

Richard Gasquet at -155 for 3 units. Gasquet beat Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets at this tournament two years ago. Gasquet has only lost to Del Potro and Nishikori this month. Struff is in fine form too, but he struggled a little bit against clay court specialist Feliciano Lopez. Gasquet has won 7 titles at indoor hardcourts in his career. Going with the player with more ability and the higher ceiling.

Giles Simon at -156 for 1 unit. Schwatzman won their only previous meeting, but Simon did not have match fitness or form going into that match. Now it is Diego Schwartzman who has less form and fitness. Simon has looked better in this tournament losing only 6 games combined to Sergiy Stakhovsky and Mackenzie McDonald. Diego needed two and a half hours to beat Cameron Norrie unconvincingly. Schwartzman is better on clay than he is in these conditions and he is only 1-3 since the US Open.

Simon/Gasquet parlay for 2 units to win 3.23 units.

Football

NCAA Football October 18th – Georgia State/Arkansas State

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22-21 on college football down 8.13 units

Arkansas State at -500 for 10 units. Max Play. Georgia State gives up almost 500 yards a game. I want to bet the line, but Arkansas State being 1-5 ATS scares me. Georgia State has not won a road game all season. Justice Hansen is Arkansas State’s Senior QB and needs just one more touchdown for the school record. He knows they have to win this game if they want to get another bowl win in his senior season. Opponents average over 7 yards a play against Georgia State and those numbers are worse on the road. Good offense vs a bad defense in this one.

Baseball

MLB October 18th – ALCS Game 5

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80-78 on MLB up 12.93 units

10-3 on MLB Playoffs up 22.48 units

Astros -1.5 at +105 for 2 units. J.D. Martinez is the only player with his full name on the back of his jersey in this series. Also, he is the only player that hits Verlander well, but it is a small sample size (only 3 ABs). I just can’t bet against Verlander. The Astros got unlucky last night. Altuve, Bregman, and Gurriel all hit David Price well. Price has a 6.16 ERA over his 11 postseason starts. Kimbrel and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled recently. Houston has to win this one or their season is over. The Astros beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Fenway last time Verlander pitched and that was against Boston Ace Chris Sale. I am not going to over-analysis this one. Verlander > Price.

Football

NFL October 18th – Broncos at Cardinals

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26-23-3 on NFL up 18.53 units

Cardinals at +110 for 3 units. Two worst run defenses in the NFL here. Cardinals are 1-5, but 3 of those loses were with Sam Bradford starting. Josh Rosen has thrown for more yards in his worst game this season than Bradford did in his best game. I don’t know what is more impressive, that Sam Bradford got a 15 million dollar contract or that Nathan Peterman keeps getting playing time.

Arizona has looked a lot better the past 3 weeks and they are 7-1-1 with David Johnson in primetime. Arizona is 2-0 ATS at home with Rosen. Mike McCoy is not a good offensive coordinator for Arizona (last in the league in yards and points), but they do have Christian Kirk, Johnson, and Larry Fitz. As bad as McCoy is, Vance Joseph might be worse. The Broncos are 1-9 on the road under Joseph. Mike Iupati is injured for Arizona, which is big because he is one of the best guards in the NFL. Denver’s injury problems are worse though. The Broncos are missing corner Adam Jones, linebacker Shane Ray, guard Ron Leary, tackle Jared Veldheer, and tackle Dymonte Thomas.

Christian Kirk over 65 receiving yards at -112 for 2 units. Bradley Roby must not know he is in a contract year because he has been getting burned for the Broncos. Kirk has gone over this number easily the past two weeks. Kirk had 7 targets last week. He averages 12.5 yards a catch. He breaks a big gain in this one.

Ricky Seals-Jones over 40 receiving yards at -115 for 3 units. If a tight end has got more than 5 targets this season against the Broncos, they have gone over 53 yards. Ricky averages a little over 5 targets on the season. He had 69 yards last week. This number is a little too low.

Tennis

Tennis October 18th – Kremlin Cup, European Open, and Stockholm Open

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62-35-4 on tennis up 12.29 units

Diego Schwartzman at -165 for 2 units. Diego has only won 10 matches on indoor hardcourts in his professional life, but 7 of them are here at Antwerp. He was the runner-up at this tournament this past two years losing to Gasquet and Tsonga. Schwartzman is not in the best form, but this location will get him right. Cameron Norrie can take advantage of Diego’s poor form here, but he does not have enough experience on hardcourts at this level. Schwartzman will use his solid return game here to get the win.

Pierre-Hughes Herbert at -115 for 2 units. This is strictly a form bet. Herbert is in better form than Seppi. Seppi does have the win in the H2H on hardcourt, but that was 6 years ago. Not going to overthink this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at +130 for 2 units. Fernando Verdasco is in similar form compared to Kohlschreiber, although Verdasco does have a little more fitness. I like Philipp on this surface though. The German leads the H2H 5-4 and has won the only other indoor hardcourt match. This should be a fairly even match so I will take the plus money. Philipp has the H2H advantage and the surface advantage; however, Verdasco does have more fitness as mentioned above. Should be a fun one.

Ivashka/Fognini/Isner Parlay for 2 units to win 2.9 units. Isner has never lost a set to Bradley Klahn (5-0). Isner has only lost his serve once against Klahn, but that was when he already had a two break advantage in the set. Both are strong servers, but Isner is the better returner. If there is going to be a player to lose this parlay, it’ll be Fognini. He withdrew in his last match vs Del Potro due to an ankle injury. If Fognini wants to win, he will. I love watching his lackadaisical athletic play. Ivashka beat Salvatore Caruso in straight sets on this surface already. Ivashka is the more reliable player. Caruso barely beat an out-of-form Bhambri and won’t be up to the task of winning another match here.

Basketball

NBA Regular Season Openers – October 17th

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18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

1-1 on NBA this season down .09 units

I am going to separate this season from last year’s “2018” numbers as to not be misleading. I thought the 76ers would play a little better than they did last night. Their offense was pretty bad, but maybe that is a credit to Boston’s defense. Fultz only had 5 points in 25 minutes. The Celtics have now won 15 out of the past 17 regular season matchups between these two. Embiid said after the game “They always kick our ass. So this is not a rivalry.”

The Warriors took care of business and beat the Thunder. Oklahoma City was without Westbrook and Andre Roberson. Steven Adams is still a beast. The refs were awful in this game. They called a clear path foul and Schroder, when Schroder did not even touch Curry. Quinn Cook got called on a 3-point shooting foul against Raymond Felton. The fact that Felton’s NBA career has lasted this long is impressive (Roy Williams knows point guards), but he is not a 3-point threat. Cook looked at the ref like “You know I don’t even have to close him out if you are gonna call a foul like that holmes.”

Hawks +3 for 3 units. Knicks are awful without Porzingis. Kevin Knox will not start. 3rd year pro Taurean Prince is going to toss some cookies and have a great season for the Hawks. He averaged nearly 10 more points a game last season than he did his rookie year. Trae Young will play well in his first appearance at MSG. Jeremy Lin will be back where Linsanity started tonight. Vince Carter goes back to MSG tonight too, where he used to work the Knicks as a Net. Hawks are supposed to love every game this year, but I like taking the points here as New York already has some drama and is not at full strength. I don’t know where NY is going to get their points from without Kristaps (Enes Kanter I guess).

Timberwolves +2.5 for 2 units. Jimmy Butler is going to go off. That is all. Don’t believe me? Watch this “interview”. Man is on one recently.

Nuggets -1.5 for 4 units. Denver is just better than the Clippers. The Staples Center will be fairly quiet with the Dodgers playing and everything else in LA. Denver has missed the playoffs the past two season by one game. They will come out hot this season. Jokic and Jamal will step up. A healthy Paul Millsap will add a lot to a team’s defense that struggled last season. Gallinari and Gortat don’t scare me. Lou Williams could always get hot and drop a 40 bomb, but I like Denver to win this one easily.

Baseball

MLB October 17th – NLCS and ALCS

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80-76 on MLB up 16.93 units

10-1 on MLB Playoffs up 26.48 units

The slumping Bellinger ended my unbeaten playoff run as the Brewers lost in extra innings. The game lasted over 5 hours. Machado scored the winning run, but in the 10th inning he clipped Aguilar’s leg. Yelich said it was “a dirty play by a dirty player.” Machado has also made some questionable slides on double play balls this series. Manny said after the game, “Everything that happens on the field stays on the field.” I’m not sure the Brewers feel the same way.

Brewers at +174 for 2 units. Kershaw said before his start tonight “I know what their strengths and weaknesses are. They obviously know mine.” If I am a Dodgers fan, that worries me. LA only got two hits off of Wade Miley last time out. Miley has been a revelation this season and he has turned it up in the postseason. Dodgers have only scored two runs in their past two games (22 innings worth of baseball). Milwaukee’s bats also struggled last night, but LA made some defensive plays that I doubt they can make every time. These games have been too close for me not to take the value of the underdog here.

Astros at -148 for 2 units. Big Papi cheering for Jackie Bradley Jr’s grand slam last night was a thing of beauty. I can’t be the only one that would rather have David Ortiz and A-Rod calling a game over Joe Buck. Osuna gave up the grand slam, but Keuchel gave up two runs in the first and Boston never looked back. Eovaldi has been pitching well in these playoffs.

Charlie Morton has given up 2 earned runs in his last 8 innings against the Red Sox, although he did get roughed up by them back in June. Rick Porcello has given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings this season vs Houston. The line has been moving towards favoring the Astros, but I would play this to about -160. Astros have to win this game. Their bats are too good not to put up more than 2 runs in this one. Also, Houston’s fielding was phenomenal in Game 3. Alex Bregman should win a gold glove for his performance alone in that game (I know that’s not how it works). On the flip side, Boston’s defense left a little to be desired. JBJ’s grand slam covered up a lot of small issues Boston had in the last game, they won’t be so lucky this time around.