Month: October 2018

68-39-4 on tennis up 12.46 units

Kevin Anderson at -252 for 5 units. If you follow me, you know I love betting Kevin. The juice doesn’t scare me. Nikoloz Basilashvili struggles against opponents with a serve as strong as Anderson’s. Anderson won the only H2H meeting in straight sets. Anderson has won at least one match in every tournament since London in June.

Marton Fucsovics at -126 for 1 unit. Fucsovics has been in solid form. Making it to the quartefinal in Beijing before losing to Fognini. Felix Auger-Aliassime has the higher ceiling as a tennis player, but he is playing after a short turnaround and retiring last week in Antwerp. Felix is the wildcard here. He has won all his first round wildcard matchups this year, but this one is unique because of the retirement. Fucsovics won 83% of his first serve points and 36% of first return points against Damir Dzumhur. Fucsovics lost to Peter Gojowczyk, but he looked the better player in the match. He only converted 1 of 10 break point opportunities in that match. He will capitalize on those chances in this one.

66-39-4 on tennis up 7.94 units

Tsitsipas at -225 for 5 units.

Tsitsipas -1.5 sets for 2 units at +115 for 2 units. Stefanos has been killing it this year, but he hasn’t won a title yet. He does it today. The young Greek has made it to two finals this year and lost to Nadal both times. Ernests Gulbis is not as talented as Nadal. Gulbis won’t have much left after going from qualifying to the final. Gulbis could win some points with his flat backhand, but his accuracy goes in and out with those. Tsitsipas will have to keep Gulbis on the run much better than Isner did if he wants to win in straight sets. I think he will do this. Stefanos gets one step closer to the top 10 here.

66-35-4 on tennis up 15.94 units

Fabio Fognini at +138 for 2 units. Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying the best season of his young life; however, so is the Italian #1. Fognini is still going for an Italian record in 4 ATP World Tour Titles in a season. That should be enough motivation for him. Fognini’s ankle is a worry, but this value is too good to pass up. Stefanos is more atheltic than most players on tour, but not Fognini. Fabio has only lost to Del Potro this month. Tsitsipas struggles against players with good serves (lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets last tournament). Fognini’s serve will be enough here. The Italian had 7 aces in the first set before Chung retired yesterday. These are two of my favorite players. Should be a good one.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at +120 for 2 units. Schwartzman has made it to the finals here the past two years and will look to do it again today. Gael Monfils has not made a final since 2016. Diego beat Gael in straight sets earlier this year, but lost to him 3 years ago. Obviously I put more weight in the matchup that was this year. Monfils is the better player on this surface, but I can’t pass up on this value as Diego loves Antwerp. He has won 9 out of 12 matches here in his career.

John Isner at -204 for 1 unit. I thought this line would be around -270 so I will take the perceived value. Ernests Gulbis is tied in the H2H with Isner 3-3, but Isner has won 3 of the past 4. Gulbis struggled against Jack Sock and only had a 56 first serve percentage. That won’t get it done against Isner.

Andreas Seppi at -132 for 3 units. Both players are capable of winning this match and are fairly even. I like Seppi because he has won the past two matches between these two on this surface in straight sets. Adrian Mannarino will be happy making it this far as he lost 6 matches in a row recently. Mannarino last beat Seppi on a hardcourt a decade ago. Mannarino has a much easier path to this semifinal. Adrian has not beat a player of Seppi’s caliber in a while.