College Football October 13th

20-20 on college football down 4.33 units

Virginia Tech -6.5 for 7 units. Steven Peoples, Virginia Tech’s running back, is going to go off for the Hokies. UNC has one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 209.3 rushing yards a game. Nathan Elliot makes too many mistakes at QB for UNC. He seems to have a little bit of Eli Manning arm – as in he doesn’t throw the ball downfield with a lot of conviction. Tar Heels have the worst turnover margin in college football. Carolina’s defense allows 44% of third down conversions.. not good. It is a night game in Chapel Hill, and that is the only thing keeping me from making this a max play. Hokies cover.

Florida at -300 for 3 units. The Gators win this one and move their win streak up to 5 games. Florida’s defense is just too strong for Vandy, they already have 20 sacks on the season. Vanderbilt has not looked great against SEC competition and that continues today.

Alabama -28 for 2 units. Bama at home at night. Not going to overthink Bama missing Trevin Diggs and their secondary not being at full strength. Mizzou is talented, but Alabama will score 50 or more tonight.

NFL October 11th – Eagles at Giants

20-20-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

Giants +1 for 3 units. If Kirk Cousins can look good against the Eagles so can Eli. Manning made some good throws last week, besides the interceptions. Odell will get his. Both teams are in must win mode here. Olivier Vernon is back for the Giants tonight. That will help their pass rush. Giants did well to make it a game against the Panthers after Odell’s muffed punt. Eagles seem like they are in a funk.

Saquon Barkley over 63 rushing yards at +100 for 3 units. Eagles only give up 2.78 yards a rush, but the weather coupled with Barkley’s athleticism will be enough to push this over. Eagles run defense is so “good” because they have played the Vikings, Titans, Colts, Buccaneers, and Falcons. Atlanta is the only team in that group with running backs that scare you. Barkley will eat. I think Saquon gets his first career game with over 20 carries in this one.

NHL October 11th

13-10-7 on Hockey this season up 0.26 units

Buffalo Sabres at +101 for 2 units. Sabres can make it 3 wins in a row tonight before they hit the road for 5 straight games. Colorado’s power play needs work and they did not look that great on the road last night. Just an eye test bet.

Montreal Canadiens at -111 for 2 units. Kings suck on the road.

St. Louis Blues at -123 for 3 units. Ryan O’Reilly has been killing draws this season. Blues are going for their first win of the season tonight. Flames have only won 2 of their last 10 in St. Louis. The Blues won a game once and it was cool. They do it again tonight.

Tennis October 11th

57-29-3 on tennis up 22.93 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas +2 at -112 for 6 units. Let me start off by saying I have loved watching both these players while they enjoy their best seasons to date. If you’re biased towards both players are you biased at all? Stefanos Tsitsipas has beat Kevin Anderson in their only 2 matches against each other. Kevin Anderson has never won a set against the young Greek that did not end in a tiebreak, which makes this +2 extra appealing. I could see Kevin Anderson winning this match, but winning less games. Stefanos has won 19 outdoor hardcourt matches this season! An amazing accomplishment for a guy that just turned 20 in August. Tsitsipas has a lot to play for here as he needs to make the quarterfinals to stay alive in The Race for London. Also, he is one of the 14 players still trying to make it to the ATP World Tour Finals. Kevin Anderson has managed to win more than one match here in Shanghai only once in his career. This will be a tight contest, but Stefanos is in better form, has the H2H history, and has more to play for (Kevin Anderson can lose this match and still make The Race for London).

Alexander Zverev at -315 for 4 units. Zverev is 5-1 against players under the age of 21 in the past year. His only loss coming to the aforementioned Stefanos Tsitsipas. Alex De Minaur, Zverev’s opponent today, is under the age of 21. Zverev has won the previous two meeting between these two. The last one was not really close either. The German #1 has never made it past this stage at this tournament, even though he won the first set against Tsonga two years ago, and Del Potro last year before losing the match to both. Alex De Minaur has won back 2 back straight set matches for just the second time this year, but Zverev will be too much for him to handle.

Kyle Edmund at -210 for 2 units. Kyle Edmund needs this win for The Race to London. Edmund is a better player than Nicolas Jarry, but Jarry did just beat 5th seed Marin Cilic. Marin has not had much match-time since the US Open though, not to take away from Jarry. Edmund posted his best result in Asia last week in Beijing and will be looking to the same this week. Both these players are in solid form, so I will take the player with the higher ceiling and “more” to play for.

Sam Querrey at +170 for 1 unit. Kei Nishikori leads the H2H 5-4, but lost the last matchup between these two. Querrey has looked a lot better in Asia than he did in the months before. Querrey already has 27 aces in this tournament and won 87% of his serve points against a great returner in Schwartzman. Nishikori is always hard to bet on or against because he retires from matches. The long run he had in Tokyo followed by a quick turnaround to Shanghai makes Sam a little easier to bet on. Nishikori advanced to the championship in Tokyo last week before losing, but he did not have to beat anybody that great to get there. This is a value play.

NHL Hockey October 10th

13-10-7 on Hockey this season up 2.81 units

Senators at +120 for 2 units. The Senators have problems with young defenders and goalkeeping, but their goalie Craig Anderson looked solid in Ottawa’s 5-3 win against Toronto. Ottawa has to do better on power plays, they had a 5-3 advantage against Boston that they did not capitalize on. Michael Neuvirth is still hurt for the Flyers and it showed in their 8-2 loss to the Sharks last night. I’ll take the Senators playing a team without their starting goalie on the second night of a back 2 back.

Capitals at -138 for 2 units. The Golden Knights don’t seem to have the same flair they had for most of last season, although they could find that magic again. Stanley Cup Finals rematch here. Marc-Andre Fleury will be starting tonight instead of tomorrow against his former team, the Penguins. No Tom Wilson in this one. Michal Kempny will be back beside John Carlson so Washington will have their full defense back. Caps have just looked better to start the season. The ice won’t be in the best condition, which I think favors the Caps as well.

Ducks at -155 for 2 units. Coyotes haven’t been able to score this season. Now they face a Ducks team that has not lost yet this season. Ekman-Larsson Oliver has had some fancy stick-work, but it has not translated to a single goal on the season for Arizona. Thought this would be closer to -200 so I will take the perceived value.

Tennis October 10th

55-28-3 on tennis up 19.59 units

Nikoloz Basilashvili at +215 for 1 unit. Nikoloz has not lost a set in his past 5 matches that included wins against Del Potro and Kyle Edmund among others. Alexander Zverev should still be the favorite, but not this heavy of one. Zverev has lost in his past 4 tournaments to underdogs like this. The German got a bye in the first round so he could come out a little flat. The Georgian #1 has a solid chance in this one.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at +119 for 3 units. Stefanos made it to the quarterfinals at Tokyo last week, which is a career best result for the 20-year-old Greek in Asia. Tsitsipas won 3 matches in his debut here last season. Karen Khachanov lost to Stefanos in qualifications last season at this Shanghai tournament. That is the only other meeting between these two up and comers. Tsitsipas has been in better form all year, has done well in his only other Shanghai appearance, and has the H2H result.

Kevin Anderson at -260 for 2 units. Anderson goes up against Mikhail Kukushkin here. Anderson leads the H2H 3-1, winning the past 3 matchups. Mikhail has won a set in all of those loses though. Anderson is having the best season of his career in 2018 with 43 wins. Just think the gap in talent is too much for the Kazakh #1 here, even though Anderson looked a little shaky in Tokyo last week. Anderson’s serve is too strong and he will get enough “easy” points to move on in this one.

MLB Playoffs October 9th

74-75 on MLB up 2.13 units

Been winning on these playoffs after a rocky end to the regular season for me. The Astros were just easy money. Did the MLB not want anybody to watch that series? Why were the games at like 1PM Friday, Saturday, and Monday?

Red Sox at +127 for 3 units. Brock Holt hit for the first ever postseason cycle last game and Severino hardly warmed up for his start. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees in this one against Porcello. Why are these division series not 7 games? Can we knock 10 games off the regular season and have longer playoffs please MLB? Mookie Betts has a 1.050 OPS in 35 plate appearances against CC, but the rest of the Red Sox are not all that great against him. I just think Boston’s bats are on fire right now and they can overcome a poor history against CC. Aaron Hicks is back in the lineup for the Yankees and Brock Holt is out of the lineup for the Red Sox in this one. Angel Hernandez will be the home-plate umpire tonight after getting not 1, not 2, but 3 calls overturned at first base last night. He is awful, so that will add some “fun” for both teams tonight. Aaron Boone could have done a lot better with his pitching decisions in Game 3, but I don’t expect that to change overnight. Red Sox get their first series clinching win in the new Yankee Stadium tonight and their first since 2004 at the Yankees.

 

Hockey October 9th

12-9-7 on Hockey this season up 4.26 units

Going to start betting NHL today. I like what I have seen from some teams in the first few games of the season. I usually wait a few more games before I bet, but there is some value tonight.

Hurricanes at -195 for 3 units. Canucks allow 4.5 goals a game and now face the leaders of the Eastern Conference so far in this young season. Both of these teams dominated on their home ice when they met last season. The second overall pick in the NHL draft, Andrei Svechnikov became the first player in NHL history born after the year 2000 to score a goal. The Hurricanes have some exciting young players besides Andrei, like Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho, Lucas Wallmark, and Martin Necas. Canucks have not been able to kill the penalty this season and I expect the Hurricanes to take advantage of that tonight.

Avalanche at +140 for 3 units. Matt Calvert returns to Columbus tonight. Calvert scored the winning goal in the first ever Blue Jackets playoff win against Pittsburgh. Alan Cole helped the Blue Jackets push into the playoffs last season, but he now also plays for Colorado. Colorado is top 5 in goals for and goals allowed this season, while Columbus is outside of the top 10 in both of those important categories. Colorado has a better power play and penalty kill. Colorado is just better so I will gladly take them at plus money.

NFL Week 5 Recap

Michael Thomas got into it on twitter with Josh Norman last night. Norman said “he wouldn’t waste his breath […] He is not worthy of it. He will never be worthy of it.” Norman tweeted that Thomas was “clout chasing” in since deleted tweets. This made Thomas go off more than I have ever seen him go off.

He tweeted things like “Zone Corner, play your role. Lol you don’t even have no clout to chase. I didn’t have to do nothing but punk you all day and watch you bust coverages all game and cost your team so who really a clown. And im going to bully you every time i see you just so you know”

“You corny for deleting your tweets @J_No24 we grown man walk it like you talk it. Goof ball con artist”

And my personal favorite “You my son, go to bed son. I was punking you all night give me a break. @ your coach so he can put your so called tough guy self in timeout again 😭😭

It seems the Saints won on the football field and on twitter. Brees broke the all-time passing record that Peyton Manning had for about 1000 days. Peyton congratulated Drew in a very Peyton way. Pretty funny. The Saints won the game 43-19 and are leading the NFC South. Mark Ingram came back from his suspension with two touchdowns to give Alvin Kamara a much needed break. Saints play at the Ravens, at the Vikings, and then at home vs the Rams. Those 3 games will go a long way in telling us if this New Orleans team can win a super bowl this season.

Redskins are still leading their division too and 2-2. Washington has the 4th fewest points against in the league. If their defense can prove this game was an outlier, they could very well win their division. Adrian Peterson’s injuries were not too serious and they have some talent on offense. I would not bet against the Redskins winning the division.

The Bills beat the Titans in a game that saw one touchdown and 6 field goals. Shady McCoy broke out of his slump and led Buffalo in rushing and receiving yards with 108 total yards on the day. Josh Allen did not do too much through the air, but got a rushing touchdown and his team the victory. Mariota’s box score looks bad, but he actually played well. His offensive line and wideouts did nothing to help him. Henry ran the ball well, but something is off with this Tennessee offense and I think it starts with the offensive line. LT Taylor Lewan got hurt in this game and did not return. His absence could really hurt the Tennessee offense going forward.

The Jets steamrolled the Broncos. Denver just couldn’t get over last week’s close loss to the Chiefs coupled with the long travel east on a short week. New York had 323 yards rushing with Crowell getting 219 of those yards. Keenum threw a touchdown pass on the Broncos second possession to go up 7-0, but it was all downhill from there. I can’t figure out why Vance Joseph and the Broncos do not run the ball more. The only ran the ball 17 times in this one, but both of their running backs averaged over 5 yards a carry (and have averaged this all season). Denver’s Bradley Roby played horrible and was not at the team facility Monday. Broncos need to turn it around quickly if they want to save Joseph’s job and make the playoffs… too bad they play the Rams this week.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 behind Gurley’s 3 touchdowns. LA’s corners got burnt in this game. Russell Wilson had a solid game, but it looked to me more of a problem with the Rams than anything special Seattle did. Earl Thomas was missed. Seattle’s strategy seems to be to run the ball a lot to keep the opposing team’s offense off the field. It worked well in this game, just wasn’t quite enough. Cooks and Cooper both left the game early, but LA’s offense was still fun to watch. This Rams team is good, but they have a fairly easy schedule.. I just don’t see them winning the Super Bowl just yet, even though they are the favorites in Vegas. Their lack of outside pass rush and lockdown corners worries me come playoff time.

The other 33-31 scoreline of the day featured the Panthers beating the Giants behind Gano’s career-long 63 yard field goal. Eli seemed to force the ball to Odell a lot, which I like more than not throwing to him for long stretches of a game. Carolina still leads the NFL in rushing yards per game at 154 yards and that was the difference in this one (besides the refs). Giants only had 50 yards rushing. Barkley is silly good. I think he will be the best running back in the league very soon. Step aside, Gurley, Bell, and Kamara. The Panthers seem to give up outside runs a little too easily, but that will most likely change with Thomas Davis coming back from his suspension. Panthers need to get more pressure on the QB if they want to make another Super Bowl run. Thomas Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Greg Olsen all playing will help them. D.J. Moore is freaky athletic, expect to see him a lot more over the second half of the season. Eric Reid took a knee during the anthem, but he looked solid on the field and will only get better once he keeps building chemistry in this secondary.

The Bengals were down 17-3 to the Dolphins after 3 quarters, but ended up winning 27-17. Cincy got a fumble return touchdown and an interception return touchdown in the 4th quarter. A.J. Green passed Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson for most 100 yard games in team history with 32. Vontaze Burfict returned for the Bengals and was second on the team in tackles. Adam Gase could prolly be better at his job, it is tough calling plays without Peyton Manning making you look good. Joe Mixon is a beast, but staying on the field is his biggest problem. Tyler Boyd is solid as well. This Bengals offense reminds me of 2015 when they had Sanu, Green, and Marvin Jones. Andy Dalton will be a top 10 fantasy QB by season’s end. Will the Bengals hold on to win the division?

The Steelers and Antonio Brown beat the Falcons 41-17. Atlanta just doesn’t have a defense due to all the injuries. James Connor went off. Pittsburgh dominated the line of scrimmage and doubled Julio Jones all day. Ito Smith might be the best running back on the Falcons. It seems everytime he touches the ball he gets 8 yards. If the Steelers play like this every week, they will make the playoffs.

The Chiefs beat the Jags, even though Jacksonville was talking a bunch of junk midweek. Mahomes was a foot or two off on some big plays to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs might have the best offensive line in football. Bortles looked atrocious. T.J. Yeldon looked solid and seems to be a capable #1 as long as Fournette is still made of Legos. Kansas City plays the Patriots next week. Ramsey said “I won the majority of matchups today, put it that way.” Your team just lost holmes, be a little more humble.

The Lions beat the Packers 31-23. Mason Crosby missed 5 kicks in the game (4 field goals and one XP). Kenny Golladay is the real deal. I always look at players that get touchdowns seemingly every time they touch the ball as rookies to have high ceilings. Odell, Barkley, David Johnson, and Tarik Cohen remind me of Golladay’s rookie season last year in that way. Davante Adams is one of the best wideouts in the league as far as I am concerned. Slay didn’t stand a chance. Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson should get more touches as the season progresses.

The Browns got another win!! Hue Jackson is not a good coach though. This game featured 5 field goals and one touchdown. Njoku and Baker Mayfield are damn good. Denzel Ward shut down John Brown (5 catches on 14 targets). Jarvis Landry gets a lot of targets from Baker and I expect him to start catching more of them. Cleveland seems to have one of the best defenses in the league. Browns lead the league in takeaways with 15, they had 13 all of last season. Cleveland needs to clean up their penalties, they had 10 more in this game. The Ravens have a solid defense too, but they need to beat the Titans next week if they want to win this division.

The Chargers beat the Raiders handily. Derek Carr looked awful. Jared Cook is big. Phil Rivers looks great this season. Cardinals got their first win of the season against the 49ers. Mike McCoy sucks at calling plays. If McCoy would play David Johnson in the slot one time this season I would venmo him $10. Chandler Jones was dominant. CJ Bethard is a backup NFL QB at best. 49ers lost Breida and starting center Weston Richburg in this one – not good.

The Vikings gave the Eagles their first home loss of the season. Minnesota still struggled to run the ball, but Philly does have a solid run defense. Thielen and Diggs are great and should be started by all their fantasy owners every week. Minnesota’s defense looked a lot better this week than they have all season. The Eagles seem to be stuck in their hangover, luckily they play in a weak division. Should Foles or Wentz start? Eagles have to beat the Giants on Thursday because their schedule gets tough after that (Panthers and then at Jacksonville).

If you like bad offenses, the Texans and Cowboys tickled your fancy. I am tired of the Cowboys being in primetime games. Cowboys suck at calling plays and scheme. Texans suck in the redzone. I don’t think either of these teams will make the playoffs, but if I had to pick one, it would be the Texans. Hopkins, Fuller, and Keke are all explosive, but O’Brien does not seem to be helping them out with the play calls. How 5 drives stall inside the 30 yard line is beyond me.

20-20-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

Still have these season bets pending:

Panthers over 8.5 wins for 8 units.

Patriots win AFC at +200 for 3 units.

Panthers win NFC at +2100 for 2 units.

Saints win NFC at +575 for 2 units.

Going to make some division winner bets today.

Panthers at +200 for 2 units. Panthers are getting healthy and they have an easier schedule than the Saints. This division is a coin-flip between the Saints and the Panthers for me. I will take a 50/50 chance at +200 all day. Saints have lost at home to the Buccaneers, while the Panthers have lost at the Falcons. Panthers play @Redskins, @Eagles, Ravens, @Steelers, @Lions, Seahawks, @Browns, and then all division games. Saints have a slightly tougher schedule @Ravens, @Vikings, Rams, @Bengals, Eagles, @Cowboys, Steelers, and then their division games.

Jaguars at -125 for 4 units. Colts, Texans, and Titans don’t scare me. Jacksonville should win their next two games against the Cowboys and Texans and these odds will get worse. The hardest game on the rest of their schedule is the Steelers at home. This one seems a little too easy.

Tennis October 9th

54-27-3 on tennis up 18.86 units

Richard Gasquet at -220 for 6 units. This is an in-form fit player against an out-of-form player lacking fitness. Leonardo Mayer has not won a match since August 20th. Gasquet got to the semi-finals last week and made it to the quarterfinals of this tournament last season. Gasquet finally looks to be getting back to his former World #7 form. Mayer just does not have the match time to win this one. The two things keeping me from making this a max play are that Mayer won the most recent meeting between these and that Mayer almost beat Federer in this tournament in 2014.

Marton Fucsovics at -145 for 2 units. Fucsovics is just in better form than Peter Gojowczyk. Gojowczyk’s two most recent wins are against out-of-form players Tsonga and Jack Sock. Marton made it to the quarterfinal last week in Beijing before losing to Fabio Fognini. The H2H is tied at 1-1, but Fucsovics won the most recent meeting. Not much between these two, so I will take the player that is playing better tennis.