2-1 on UFC/MMA down 1.43 units

Lost the big bet on Brian Ortega last time out. What a fight that was. Max Holloway scared me away with his health issues, but damn is he a beast.

Zak Cummings at -316 for 3 units. Cummings has a 6-3 UFC record, while Smith is 5-5. Cummings will win this one with a submission.

Joaquim Silva at +108 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Silva has lost 1 match in his UFC career and it went the distance. I told myself I would bet on him in his next fight when he lost to Pinchel and here we are. I expect him to rebound nicely.

Charles Oliveira at -303 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Oliveira is going for revenge as Jim Miller was his first ever loss. Charles submitted to the knee bar in the first round against Miller. Oliveira is coming off back 2 back performances of the night. I like him here.

Lee/Iaquinta over 2.5 at -120 for 5 units. Iaquinta went the distance with Khabib. This is a rematch of a fight that went the distance. These guys are a great matchup and I think this one goes the distance as well. Kevin Lee has the ability to submit Iaquinta, but I don’t think he will. This should be a good one.

NFL Saturdays Are Here

58-44-4 on the NFL up 26.20 units

Texans -7 at +104 for 4 units. I’ve bet on the Jets thrice this year (against Broncos, Colts, and Titans) and won all 3. Doesn’t mean I like betting on them though. Todd Bowles is simply not a good head coach. Texans defensive line will eat. DeAndre Hopkins can’t be covered by the whole city of New York. Texans coming off a loss. Houston is the second most sacked team in the league, but they will focus on quick throws and fixing that in this game. Watson has thrown only 2 interceptions since week 8.

Sam Darnold has struggled against good defenses (Ex: Vikings) and I expect that to continue. Darnold leads the league with 15 interceptions. He has only played 10 games. I don’t know why people thought his interception problems at USC wouldn’t carry over.. but they have. Get right game for the Texans. Houston are better on 3rd down, better at taking care of the ball, better at pressuring the QB.. you get it.

Browns at +115 for 4 units. I don’t think Vance Joseph is a great head coach either. Browns have looked a lot better since firing Hue Jackson and playing Nick Chubb. Surprise. Surprise. Gregg Williams has has many wins as Hue Jackson did in 40 games. Why the hell does Gregg’s name have two G’s in his name. That’s annoying. Myles Garrett and Von Miller, two former Aggies, are some of the best rushers in the league and get to show off for each other today. Mayfield has one of the highest YPG for a rookie ever. Broncos have won 11 straight against Cleveland, but that has a good chance of changing today. I think this game will be close, so I will take the team at plus money. If one team has the ability to blow the other out, I think it is the Browns though.

College Football – Bowl Season Begins

44-31 on College Football this season up 29.33 units

I made 43 bets on bowl games last year and went up around 10 units, while going 23-20. I think I will do a little better this season as I have watched a lot of college football this year. Let’s get it.

Autonation Cure Bowl – Tulane Green Wave Vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana +3.5 for 2 units. The Ragin’ Cajuns score over 32 points a game behind their two running backs, who both have over 950 rushing yards on the season (Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell). Billy Napier has done a great job with this team in his first year. The underdog has covered the last 5 times these two have met. Tulane is on their second Qb, Justin McMillan. Justin is 4-1 with the starting job. This should be a fun rivalry game in Orlando Florida. I’m taking the points in what should be a close game.

New Mexico Bowl – North Texas Mean Green Vs Utah State Aggies

Utah State -7 for 4 units. Utah State will have the best player on the field in QB Jordan Love. Love has 34 total touchdowns this season and has only thrown 5 interceptions. The Aggies average over 47 points a game and have been one of the best offenses to watch in football all season long. Utah State is 9-3 ATS this season, while the Mean Green are only 4-8 against the spread. Not going to overthink this one.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl – Fresno State Bulldogs Vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State at +199 for 2 units. Herm Edwards has done a lot better with this Sun Devil program than most expected (my hand is up). I was a hater when they hired him, but Arizona State has looked solid. Marcus McMaryion has been great for Fresno State this season, throwing 25 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Marcus is trying to lead Fresno to their first 12 win season ever. N’Keal Harry, ASU’s leading wideout, is sitting out this game as to not get injured before the draft. ASU has the Pac-12 defensive freshman of the year in linebacker Merlin Robertson. He is all over the field and is hard to miss when you’re watching the ASU defense. Eno Benjamin is a great running back for ASU. Arizona State has beat some quality opponents this season and I think that continues here.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Georgia Southern Eagles Vs Eastern Michigan Eagles

Over 45 points for 3 units. I am going to be honest, I have not watched either of these teams play this season… so why not take the over? Georgia Southern’s games have seen an average of 52 points, while Eastern Michigan’s games sit at 49 points on average. Georgia Southern is on pace to break the record for taking care of the ball. They have only committed 5 turnovers all season (record is 8).

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Middle Tennessee Raiders Vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

App State -7 for 3 units. App allows less than 16 points a game. Middle Tennessee coach, Rich Stockstill, will be coaching his son, QB Brent Stockstill, for the final time here. App’s coach, Scott Satterfield, has left for Louisville. Middle Tennessee has the better QB, but App has the better team by far.

Soccer – Winter (Break) is Coming

79-62-7 on Soccer since World Cup up 16.21 units

Atletico Madrid at -146 for 4 units. This game should be at -250, but it isn’t because Atletico haven’t won in 4 games away from home. Valladolid does not have the talent that Madrid has. Madrid only have 1 away win this season in the league. That changes today. Atletico have won their past 6 La Liga matches against Valladolid by a score of 16-2. Oblak has 103 clean sheets for Atletico. Yes, 103!! Valladolid have only scored 4 goals in their past 5 league games. Atletico wins 1-0 or 2-0.

Valencia at +179 for 2 units. Eibar have had one of their best starts to a La Liga season ever, but Valencia have the second best defense in the league (12 goals allowed) behind Atletico and tied with Getafe. Pareja has been great being the maestro this season for Valencia. Kondogbia, Soler, Mina, Rodrigo, Wass, Coquelin, and Garay are all solid players for Valencia. This Valencia team has struggled for wins this season, but they lead Europe with 9 league draws this season. Eibar have slowed down and Valencia have picked it up over the past few games. Here’s to that continuing..

Dortmund at -299 for 4 units. I love this Dortmund team, and not just because they have Christian Pulisic. Paco Alcacer has 11 goals in only 6 starts this season. He is a World Class super sub. Dortmund hasn’t lost at home in the league all season. Werder Bremen have only won 1 of their last 5 league games. Dortmund has won all 5 of their last 5 and are 7 points clear of Monchengladbach at the top of the table (8 points ahead of Bayern). Dortmund averages over 3.5 goals a game at home. I told myself I would keep betting Dortmund under -300 till they burned me and they haven’t yet.

Juventus -1 at +108 for 2 units. Derby della Mole today. The oldest derby in Italy. Juventus and Torino. Juventus have not gone two matches without a win since they signed Ronaldo. They lost to Young Boys midweek, but they had already qualified for the round of 16 in the Champions League. Ronaldo will go out of his way to be a team player in this one, after being selfish and cancelling Dybala’s goal against Young Boys. Torino have been a fairly easy team to bet on this season as they win the matches they are supposed to and draw/lose vs better competition (AC Milan and Napoli). Juventus have won their past 3 meetings. Dybala is in great form. Mario Mandzukic is one of the best poachers in all of soccer. I like this spot with Juve coming off a loss.