Month: December 2018

56-41-4 on the NFL up 40.31 units

Derrick Henry got possessed by Marshawn Lynch’s 27 year old body on Thursday night. It was wild. Henry set a franchise record for rushing yards in a game with 238 yards. He did it on 17 carries!! Alabama running backs are hit or miss in the NFL.. Mark Ingram and Shaun Alexander are/were great.. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake are solid in their roles.. Eddie Lacy, Glen Coffee, and Trent Richardson among others fizzled out among others.. The jury is still out on Henry, but I hope he gets healthy and has more games like this one. Titans have won 6 of the last 7 games against the Jags. Onto today’s games..

Patriots/Saints Parlay risking 6 units to win 3.33 units. New England has lost 4 of the past 5 games in Miami, but it is December. Tom Brady has lost more games on the road to the Dolphins than any other opponent (9), but it is December. Sony Michel is only the second RB Tom Brady has had that has averaged over 4.5 YPC while getting 15+ attempts a game. Michel is a rookie. The Dolphins are 6-6 and somehow 5-1 at home. Danny Amendola revenge game. Gronk is healthy. I think the Patriots do a much better job sustaining drives in this one and win the game. Pats are 40% on 3rd down, while the Dolphins are 31% on 3rd down.

Saints play a Bucs team they lost to earlier this season. They won’t lose to Tampa twice. Michael Thomas is on pace to break Joe Horn’s single season record for the Saints (1,399 receiving yards). New Orleans has allowed less that 20 points in 4 straight games. Yes. The Saints have allowed less than 20 points in 4 straight games. Tampa is allowing the second highest completion percentage since 1970. Brees will eat.

Cowboys at -175 for 2 units. I hate betting on the Cowboys, but sometimes you gotta do it. Leighton Vander Esch gets a tackle on 18% of snaps for Dallas. Elliot has never lost to the Eagles. Dallas is 5-1 at home. Philly just hasn’t got it together this season. Golden Tate had his best game as an Eagle last week, but Amari Cooper has been great for the Cowboys. Not going to overthink this one.. Don’t suck Jason Garrett.

Rams -3 for 5 units. Todd Gurley already has the same amount of TDs as he had all of last season. He would have more touchdowns if he wasn’t such a team player and laid down at the 2 all the time. Trubisky is playing, but may not be fully healthy. Going up against Donald after a two game absence will not be easy. Rams are the best team in the NFL so far this season. Sean McVay is great. Why doesn’t every team just go get a 32 year old offensive genius for a coach? The Rams average 6.7 yards a play and score 35 points a game. The Rams commit less penalties, complete more 3rd downs, turn the ball over less, and win more. That continues today.

43-31 on College Football up 28.43 units

Army at -332 for 3 units. Army is just better than Navy this season. Army is going for their first 11 win season in school history with a win here and in their bowl game. Navy is one of the best teams in the nation at rushing the ball, but Army knows this and will gameplan to stop their rushing attack. One of the best rivalries in all of sports, even the plebes care. This Army team barely lost to Oklahoma in September and haven’t lost since then. Navy gives up over 30 points a game and Army only gives up 18.7 points a game. Defense will be the difference in this one.

55-41-4 on the NFL up 34.59 units

Eagles -6 for 6 units. Redskins have bad karma for signing Reuben Foster. Colt McCoy isn’t good. Eagles are 0-5 when they don’t rush for over 100 yards. They got the run game going in the second half against the Giants and I think that continues tonight. Eagles have to win this game if they want to make the playoffs. Washington would like to get Adrian Peterson going, but the Eagles have a solid run defense. Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis will prolly have big days, but I don’t think McCoy can do enough here. McCoy is getting sacked on over 9% of his dropbacks. Redskins will have 3 or 4 starting lineup hurt in this one. Golden Tate should finally get going with the defense focusing on Ertz.

53-39-4 on the NFL up 41.76 units

Jets +10 for 2 units. Jets haven’t covered since October 14th when they beat the Colts. The over/under for this game vs the Titans is set at only 40 points. It is going to be ugly. Jamal Adams has been great this season, but the Jets simply haven’t been. The Titans are inconsistent and haven’t played to their ability since they beat the Patriots.

Patriots at -240 for 2 units. This is when the Pats start to turn it on. Patriots are 64-13 in the month of December this century. Vikings lack of run game leads them to a below average 27% 3rd down completion. Patriots convert on 43% of their 3rd downs. New England’s ability to sustain drives will lead them to a home win.

Chiefs -14 for 5 units. The Kareem Hunt video isn’t good. The star running back is facing at least a 6 game ban for his altercation. The Raiders should be facing a 6 game ban too because they suck. Mahomes has more passing touchdowns since week 6 than Aaron Rodgers has all season. Oakland doesn’t have the ability to keep up with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Steelers -3 for 5 units. Chargers traveling east and all that. Pittsburgh has not looked great the past 2 weeks, but I think they win this pivotal AFC matchup. Austin Ekeler will do well stepping in for the injured Melvin Gordon, but he is a different type of back than Gordon. Philip Rivers has been on fire this season, but Watt and the cold Pittsburgh weather will limit him enough. Pittsburgh averages 3.5 sacks a game.

I have been betting on the Chargers a lot this year. They are one of the few all around good teams in the NFL, but traveling to Pittsburgh without Melvin Gordon is too tall of a task me thinks. JuJu already has over 1,000 yards this season, while Antonio Brown has “only” 874 yards and 11 touchdowns. I can’t see the Chargers secondary stopping Pittsburgh’s pass attack, even though I love Derwin James.