56-41-4 on the NFL up 40.31 units
Derrick Henry got possessed by Marshawn Lynch’s 27 year old body on Thursday night. It was wild. Henry set a franchise record for rushing yards in a game with 238 yards. He did it on 17 carries!! Alabama running backs are hit or miss in the NFL.. Mark Ingram and Shaun Alexander are/were great.. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake are solid in their roles.. Eddie Lacy, Glen Coffee, and Trent Richardson among others fizzled out among others.. The jury is still out on Henry, but I hope he gets healthy and has more games like this one. Titans have won 6 of the last 7 games against the Jags. Onto today’s games..
Patriots/Saints Parlay risking 6 units to win 3.33 units. New England has lost 4 of the past 5 games in Miami, but it is December. Tom Brady has lost more games on the road to the Dolphins than any other opponent (9), but it is December. Sony Michel is only the second RB Tom Brady has had that has averaged over 4.5 YPC while getting 15+ attempts a game. Michel is a rookie. The Dolphins are 6-6 and somehow 5-1 at home. Danny Amendola revenge game. Gronk is healthy. I think the Patriots do a much better job sustaining drives in this one and win the game. Pats are 40% on 3rd down, while the Dolphins are 31% on 3rd down.
Saints play a Bucs team they lost to earlier this season. They won’t lose to Tampa twice. Michael Thomas is on pace to break Joe Horn’s single season record for the Saints (1,399 receiving yards). New Orleans has allowed less that 20 points in 4 straight games. Yes. The Saints have allowed less than 20 points in 4 straight games. Tampa is allowing the second highest completion percentage since 1970. Brees will eat.
Cowboys at -175 for 2 units. I hate betting on the Cowboys, but sometimes you gotta do it. Leighton Vander Esch gets a tackle on 18% of snaps for Dallas. Elliot has never lost to the Eagles. Dallas is 5-1 at home. Philly just hasn’t got it together this season. Golden Tate had his best game as an Eagle last week, but Amari Cooper has been great for the Cowboys. Not going to overthink this one.. Don’t suck Jason Garrett.
Rams -3 for 5 units. Todd Gurley already has the same amount of TDs as he had all of last season. He would have more touchdowns if he wasn’t such a team player and laid down at the 2 all the time. Trubisky is playing, but may not be fully healthy. Going up against Donald after a two game absence will not be easy. Rams are the best team in the NFL so far this season. Sean McVay is great. Why doesn’t every team just go get a 32 year old offensive genius for a coach? The Rams average 6.7 yards a play and score 35 points a game. The Rams commit less penalties, complete more 3rd downs, turn the ball over less, and win more. That continues today.