Month: December 2018

79-61-7 on Soccer since World Cup up 20.21 units

Celta Vigo at -115 for 4 units. Celta Vigo have won back 2 back games. Leganes will be missing two starting midfielders due to card suspensions (Ruben Perez and Allan Nyom). Leganes also has a long list of injury concerns; whereas, Celta are one of the healthiest teams in La Liga. Iago Aspas has found his form again and is La Liga’s top Spanish goal scorer with 10 goals. Leganes have struggled on the road this season scoring only 7 goals in 8 matches. 4 of those away goals were against relegation candidate Valladolid, which was the only away win for Leganes this season. Maximiliano Gómez González has found some form for Vigo as well. Vigo has the homefield, a healthier squad, better attacking options, and better form. I think this line should be around -200 so I am playing it.

78-58-7 on Soccer since World Cup up 23.85 units

Back 2 back days with a winning record on soccer, but losing due to my big plays losing. Ronaldo let me down. Ronaldo talked about how at Real Madrid people wanted to score for themselves, but at Juve it doesn’t matter who scores. Well, look in the mirror Ronaldo.. we all know you love to do that anyway. Dyabala came on as a sub and scored and almost scored again before you tried to steal it and were offsides disallowing the goal. Just imagine if Dybala did that to Ronaldo. This is not mentioning the 3 clear chances Ronaldo bottled in the first 25 minutes of the game. I do like Ronaldo, but it is games like this that make me think Messi is better. I digress..

Sevilla at -294 for 4 units. Sevilla have won 8 games in a row at home. The Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium (that I took a photo of as the header photo for this website) is good to Sevilla. Sevilla needs to match or do better than Standard Liege if they want to move on. It is hard to believe that a team fighting for the La Liga title is in this position, but here we are. Pablo Sarabia is in-form for Sevilla. Krasnodar are leading the group and are moving onto the next round unless the highly unlikely happens. Sevilla lost the last meeting 2-1, with Tornike Okriashvili scoring the winner for Krasnodar. Sevilla did not start Silva, Sarabia, or Vazquez in that game. I think all 3 start today in this crucial game and make a huge difference.

Celtic at +164 for 3 units.

Celtic/Salzburg draw at +241 for 1 unit. Salzburg are comfortably winning their group and are 14 points clear in their domestic campaign. This is a great chance for them to rotate some younger players in and give their starters a rest. Odsonne Edouard has 9 goals in his last 14 games for Celtic. The Scottish Giants have to avoid a loss here to move on. Celtic haven’t lost at home to European competition this season. Also, they have a good habit of scoring first at home.

Besiktas at -151 for 2 units. In a wide open group, Besiktas advance without losing here. Malmo have to win to move on. Malmo FF haven’t played a competitive game in two weeks, as their domestic season ended a month ago. Vagner Love has come into form for Besiktas. Vodafone Park in Istanbul is not an easy place for opponents to come play. Besiktas have only lost twice at home in eighteen European matches. I want to make this a bigger play, but Besiktas only needing a draw keeps me from doing that.

72-54-6 on Soccer since World Cup up 27.09 units

Ousmane Dembele is good. Tottenham got a late equalizer to move on to the round of 16. Inter could not do enough to beat PSV at home to move on. Inter had over 20 shots and 1 goal. They bottled it. Also, Salah is good.

Real Madrid/CSKA Moscow under 4 at -215 for 3 units. Moscow needs a point and a Viktoria Plzeň loss, or a win a Viktoria loss or draw. Viktoria is playing Roma. Real Madrid secures the group with a draw. 5 goals is a lot for a game that both teams could be happy with a draw. Moscow haven’t scored more than twice in their last 16 games. Moscow won 1-0 last time these two met, but Real is in much better form than they were in that game. Real have only allowed 1 goal in their past 3 games. Real’s improved defense and them only needing a draw pushes this one under.

Juventus -1 at -167 for 6 units. Juventus won against Young Boys 3-0 last time they met. Juve have kept 5 clean sheets in a row. Juve wins the group with a win. They win today. Don’t bet against Ronaldo in Champions League..

Bayern Munich +0 at -191 for 2 units. Bayern and Ajax play for the group today. Bayern wins the group with a win or draw. Niko Kovac is still coaching for his job for Bayern so he will want to put in a good result here (a good lineup will be out there today). De Boer and Seedorf were playing on Ajax last time they beat Bayern in 1995. Dusan Tadic is great for Ajax, but Bayern has a lot to play for and too much talent.

Hoffenheim +2 at +101 for 2 units. Man City is out of form. KDB and David Silva will be missed. Man City just need a draw to win the group. Hoffenheim need a win and a Shakhtar loss to Lyon today to move on. Not likely. Hoffenheim have scored more than 4 goals a game in away games this season. I like this spot.

Lyon +0.5 at -149 for 2 units. Lyon secure the next round with a win or draw. Nabil Fekir may be gone in January, but he has been great for Lyon for a few years now. They tied 2-2 last time they played Shakhtar Donetsk. Lyon have not lost in Champions League yet this season and I don’t think they lose today.

Juventus -1/Bayern Munich +0/Hoffenheim +2/Lyon +0.5 Parlay risking 2 units to win 11.25 units. Send it.

68-51-6 on Soccer since World Cup up 30.82 units

Barcelona only favored by 1 over the weekend against Espanyol after the Messi Ballon d’Or snub was the easiest bet I have made in a while. It was “only” a 5 unit play for me though. I have to get better at making angles like that a max play. If you didn’t like Messi’s Free-kick in the first half. He scored a second half free-kick you’ll have to like (Sorry Espanyol fans, Lo Siento).

I mean just look at Messi’s dribbling before his assist on the Dembele goal. He runs away from defender #1 and then shields the ball from defender #2, then does a left to right foot chop quicker than you can sneeze to get around defender #1 again. Defender #3 tries to tackle. Messi falls on the ball and dodges that tackle along with Defender #1’s standing tackle. Then he throws it off Vidal’s leg and orders him to fall down because he sees a pass and doesn’t want Vidal to fuck it up. Then while defender #1 is sprinting at him, he threads the through ball to Dembele who displays a clinical finish.

Messi and Ronaldo are freaks for how long they have been dominant. Pele probably thinks Ronaldo is better cause he heads the ball, but I have never seen Ronaldo have a game like Messi had against Espanyol. You have to appreciate greatness while it is here. My last bottle of Pappy Van Winkle 23 Bourbon Whiskey taught me that. Messi will not be gracing us forever, but for now I will enjoy (betting on) him. Lebron James and Roger Federer are the only other players in all the major sports I can think of that are like Messi and Ronaldo in regards to longevity of dominance.

Alright sorry for the Messi session.. Onto today’s games,

Dortmund -1 at +120 for 2 units. Dortmund is already onto the next round. Monaco will finish last in the group. Dortmund hasn’t won either of their last two away games in this competition. So why bet Dortmund? Monaco have an injury list longer than Kevin Durant. Monaco just won’t be able to field a team that can match Dortmund’s talent.

Napoli +1.5 at -204 for 2 units.

Napoli/Liverpool over 3 for 2 units. Alright. If PSG beat Red Star (they will), then Liverpool either has to win 1-0 or by 2. Napoli are leading the group heading into these games. Liverpool is going to come out attacking because the only way the runner-ups move on is if they win. I mean, they could take the Mourinho approach and leave it late and then start sending in crosses to Virgil, but I think I know Klopp better than that. Napoli has played 9 away matches this season. 8 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. Klopp is 1-2 against Ancelotti. Salah scored a hat-trick over the weekend. We will see goals in this one. Napoli are leading the group for a reason, two goals is too much value to pass them up even on the road in my opinion. In an up and down match like this, there are a wide array of outcomes, but I don’t see Napoli losing by 2 or more happening.

Inter Milan -1 at -180 for 8 units. Inter know they clinch if they get more points than Tottenham does against Barcelona. PSV have not won a Champions League game this group stage. Also, PSV have given up at least two goals in every game this group stage. Icardi scored against PSV last time out. Inter have only lost at home once this season. Inter are the more talented team on the pitch and will go all out in this one. They win by 2 or more.

Atletico Madrid -1 at +124 for 2 units.

Atletico Madrid/Club Brugge KV under 2.5 at -122 for 2 units. Atletico win the group with a win. Diego Simeone might be the best coach in the world to have if you have to win against an inferior opponent. Atletico win 2-0. Club Brugge have secured Europa, but can’t make the round of 16. Brugge have played well so far..

Tottenham/Barcelona to Draw at +325 for 1 unit. Barcelona have not lost at the Camp Nou in the Champions League since the 13/14 season. They have already won the group, while Tottenham have to win to have a chance at moving on. It will be interesting to see what kind of lineup Barcelona puts out. If Messi and Suarez sit, Dembele and Countinho are no slouches. I may make a new post once the lineups come out, so stay tuned for that.. but I think a draw is the most likely outcome for this match and 3x your money is great value.