Month: January 2019

Soccer

Soccer – Copa Del Ray

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-2-1 on Soccer in 2019 up 0.51 units

Atletico Madrid/Girona over 2 for 3 units.

Atletico Madrid at -127 for 3 units. Last 3 matches between these two have pushed or gone over the 2 goals. Girona’s defense has looked vulnerable in recent matches. Atletico and Sevilla just played to a 1-1 draw, but the game had a lot more chances than that scoreline entails. This is Atletico Madrid’s best chance at a trophy this season, they will field their best team. The rumor is Stuani, Pedro Porro, Bono, and Juanpe are all resting for the weekend for Girona. Atletico take care os business with a 2-1 away win.

Tennis

ATP Sydney

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

0-1 on tennis in 2019 down 4.0 units

Kevin Anderson had 8 chances to break Ivo Karlovic and he never did. Kevin Anderson won the match, but didn’t cover the -2. If Anderson wins 1 of those 8 break points, I win my bet. Just annoying to start the year 0-1 on a “good” play. Oh well. I ain’t no quitter.

Denis Kudla at -142 for 3 units. Kudla won in straight sets in his only other meeting against Garcia-Lopez. Kudla is coming off his best season. Garcia-Lopez is coming off an under .500 season. Kudla should be closer to -200.

Andrey Rublev -2 at -137 for 3 units. Andrey Rublev leads the H2H 2-0. Pouille can beat anyone in tennis on his day, but his form has been dreadful of late. Rublev does have a back problem to worry about, but he is the better player based on current form and H2H history.

Marton Fucsovics at -273 for 3 units. Duckworth doesn’t have the match fitness to compete with Fucsovics.

Football

The National Championship – Bama/Clemson

Leave a comment

55-39 on College Football in 2018 up 44.85 units

16-10 on Bowls up 15.48 units

Alabama -5 at -120 for 5 units. Bama’s defensive line has an advantage over the Clemson offensive line. Tua should be able to find some gaps in Clemson’s secondary as well. Clemson’s defensive line is great, but so is Mississippi State’s, who Alabama dominated earlier this season. Bama has great players at every level on both sides of the ball. Josh Jacobs has turned it on for Bama here at the end of the year. Clemson hasn’t had a tough game since they came back against Syracuse in September. Bama is too much of a step up for them tonight.

Alabama/Clemson under 57 for 2 units. Hot take : A redzone turnover and quite a few punts push the under.

 

Football

NFL Sunday – Playoff Edition

Leave a comment

66-50-5 on the NFL up 37.36 units

Ravens at -147 for 3 units. Phil Rivers has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games. Lamar Jackson averages 80 yards rushing a game as a starter. Ravens are great at covering receivers that like to line up out wide like Keenan Allen. Chargers ended the season poorly, while Baltimore ended the season trending up. Ravens beat the Chargers 22-10 in California. I don’t see how the Chargers just get better at stopping the run a few weeks later and a few time zones over. Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson are tough to stop. Ravens D steps up and gets the win.

Bears at -270 for 3 units. Da Bears. Foles has the experience over Mitch, but Mitch can run. The Bears allowed the fewest rushing yards the ever have in a 16-game season this year. Since Week 15, Mitchell Trubisky has the highest completion % in the NFL. Bears have won 9 of their last 10. Chicago’s defense should control the game. I want to bet the spread, but Foles and the Alshon Jeffrey revenge game have me second guessing the Bears -7.

Soccer

La Liga Front Runners

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-2 on Soccer in 2019 up 2.51 units

Atletico Madrid/Sevilla over 2 at -144 for 3 units. 4 of the past 5 matches between these two have gone over this number. Betting Atletico overs is a dangerous game, but I think there is a good chance the over hits today. Sevilla have scored 27 goals over their past 10 home games. Atl. Madrid’s defense isn’t quite as good on the road. Ben Yedder and Andre Silva will be a handful for Madrid’s backline. Sevilla can be countered and Griezmann is the type of forward Sevilla struggles containing. This game ends 2-1.

Barcelona/Real Madrid -1 Parlay at +131 for 2 units. Santi Cazorla scored twice for Villarreal to tie Real Madrid last time out. It was the first time Real blew a halftime lead all season. Courtois has kept a clean sheet in 5 of 7 home appearances. Real has beat Sociedad 9 times in a row at home, averaging over 3.5 goals a game in that span. Bale and Asensio are out, but Modric, Kroos, Benzema, and Isco should get it done.

Getafe is hot, but Barcelona is still Barcelona. Ousmane Dembele has 7 La Liga goals this season. Only Real Madrid and Atletico have scored more than one goal against Getafe this season. Barcelona are the only team in the league better than them two. Barcelona have 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 visits to Coliseum Alfonso Perez. Girona dominated possession and should have beat Getafe last time out, Barcelona is a lot better than Girona… Oh yeah and Messi.

Football

NFL PLAYOFFS ARE HERE AHHHHHHHH

Leave a comment

65-47-5 on the NFL regular season up 41.77 units

Beer, chili, and winning bets on the NFL playoffs. It doesn’t get better!

Colts/Texans over 47 at -130 for 3 units. DeAndre Hopkins had 115 catches this season and no drops. Hopkins can’t be stopped. T.Y. Hilton averaged 157 yards a game against the Texans this season. The Texans have to focus on limiting Hilton, which could leave room for Ebron, Mack, and Hines to have big days. These two teams scored a total of 71 and 45 points in their two previous meetings this season.

Colts +1 at +103 for 3 units. Watson was sacked 62 times this season. Luck was only sacked 18 times. Indy completes a silly good 49% of their 3rd downs. Houston’s pass defense is the worst in the league. Indy’s ability to protect and let Luck find the gaps in that bad secondary will win Indy this game. Indy wins 31-21.

Seahawks at +117 for 3 units. You can bet on Dak and Jason Garrett… I’m not. Elliot is good, but Seattle actually has the best rushing attack in the league. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett step up here as well. Dallas allows teams to complete over 40% of their 3rd downs. Seattle’s ability to run the ball will put them in good second and third down situations. Russell Wilson should be able to take advantage of the young Dallas linebackers with some QB runs.

Parlay all 3 risking 1.5 units to win 10.16 units. Feeling lucky.

Tennis

ATP Pune Final – Karlovic Vs Kevin

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

Kevin Anderson -2 at -152 for 4 units. Jimmy Connors in 1993. Ivo Karlovic in 2019. They are both old and in a tour Final. Anderson is a much better returner and all-around player. Anderson is at home. Anderson is coming off his best season ever. Anderson should aim for Karlovic’s backhand. Karlovic is taller (6’11), but that’s about it. Shia Labeouf said it best, “Make your dreams come true. Just do it.”

Football

FA Cup – Tottenham at Tranmere and La Liga

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

2-1 on Soccer in 2019 up 2.35 units 

Tottenham Hotspur -1.5 at -185 for 4 units. Tottenham has progressed 17 of 18 times against lower league competition in this tournament. Last time Tottenham played Tranmere they won 4-0. The time before… Tottenham won 4-0. Prenton Park is where the Liverpool Reserves play, but it is Tranmere’s home. Mauricio Pochettino has led his team to a 47-11 scoreline against lower league opponents in this competition since he was appointed Tottenham manager. Tottenham has scored first and in the first half of 5 of their past 6 matches. There could be some rotation for Tottenham, getting younger players some action, but if the game is still close after halftime… I expect Tottenham to play some super subs and put the game away.

Leganes ML at +331 for 1 unit. Leganes/Espanyol draw at +228 for 1 unit. Espanyol has lost 6 league games in a row, but are still ahead of Leganes in the table. Leganes has not lost in their past 7 La Liga matches. Ruben Perez is suspended again for cards for Leganes. El Zhar and Guido Carrillo have been solid for Leganes this season. Fading the coldest team in Europe.. if Espanyol does turn it around this game, I won’t be too mad.

Soccer

Liverpool and Real Madrid on the First Thursday of 2019

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

2-0 on Soccer in 2019 up 6.35 units 

Liverpool +1/Real Madrid -1 Parlay risking 4 units to win 9.32 units. Kroos and Modric are back healthy for Real. Sounds weird to say on January 3rd, but Real Madrid have to win these games if they want to challenge Barcelona, Atletico, and Sevilla for the league title. Madrid should have some confidence after winning the Club World Cup (again). Villarreal tied a bad Huesca team last time out. Real Madrid are tied with Huesca for most away goals given up in the league. Madrid will focus on defense and get a clean sheet.

Liverpool is a more than a 2 to 1 underdog. Am I the only one that thinks Liverpool should be favored? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!

download

In all seriousness though, Kevin De Bruyne and Fernandinho are both back in the lineup for City, but neither is in form. They both need to stay healthy and get a run of games before I trust City against a team as good as Liverpool. Salah has scored or assisted 20 Premier League goals this season (most in the league). It is January 3rd. Liverpool have a scoreline of 18-2 in their last 5 Premier League games. They played Manchester United and Arsenal in that 5 game stretch – Silly good. City have struggled to score against Leicester and Crystal Palace and now they go against the best defender in the World in van Dijk. I’m going to side with the hotter team, instead of betting on them to trip up. Also, I don’t buy the notion that City need this win more and that will show on the pitch… Liverpool know if they get all 3 points here, they are on their way to a title.

Basketball

College Basketball 2019 Whoop Whoop

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

5-9-1 this season down 1.31 units

Missed both my parlays by one team last time out (UNC losing to Kentucky and Georgia Tech losing to Georgia). I am 0-3 betting on GT this year. I’m not a quitter, but I quit Georgia Tech. Starting with a ridiculous parlay and ending with more reasonable straight up bets winners.

Hornets(NBA – don’t care it isn’t college, get over it), Wake Forest, Butler, So Illinois, Bradley, Houston, Villanova, Michigan State, Loyola Chicago, Kansas, UNLV, and Nevada parlay risking 1 unit to win 15.86 units. All home teams that are favored. Hornets will prolly lose to the Mavs and all the college basketball ones will hit with my luck.

North Carolina -16 at -120 for 2 units. Harvard has only one double digit loss on the year, but they haven’t played anybody. UNC wins by 20 or more. Nassir Little played poorly against Kentucky, so he got few minutes. People gave Roy a doggone hard time for not playing Little, but I think Little stands out tonight against the Ivy League school.

Nebraska Omaha at -156 for 2 units. Zach Jackson and Omaha get it done at home tonight against a North Dakota St. team that hasn’t won away all year.

Central Florida at -231 for 2 units. UCF are bigger than Temple and play better defense. Take the home team. Tacko Fall is second in FG% and 4th in blocks in the country for UCF.

South Florida +4 at -121 for 2 units. Home Dog. Connecticut is the basketball powerhouse, but USF has a good chance to get a win in this one. I’ll take the points for the team at home that is 10-2.