Month: January 2019

Tennis

Australian Open Round 2 Continued

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

10-9 on tennis in 2019 down 7.89 units

Pierre-Hughes Herbert +2.5 for 4 units. Hyeon Chung lost his opening round match at Pune and Auckland before winning his opening matchup against Klahn here. Herbert is a similar, but better opponent than Klahn. Chung has a lack of fitness and consistency. I like the underdog.

Kei Nishikori -2.5 sets at +107 for 4 units. Kei is 5-0 this year. Nishikori needed 5 sets to beat Kamil Majchrzak, but him prevailing after a terrible start has to give him confidence. Karlovic is in the midst of a little career revival at age 39. His baseline game and serve are just as good if not better than they have ever been. NIshikori is 7-0 in the second round of this tournament. Nishikori’s ability to break Karlovic and make him work should give Nishikori the easy win.

Fabio Fognini -3 at -120 for 6 units. Fognini will win if his mind is right. Mayer beat Jarry in 4 sets to get his 4th win at the AO in 9 trips here. Not that great. Fognini lost to Mayer both times last year on clay, but Fognini has the advantage on this surface.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at -257 for 3 units. The German has the experience over Sousa, but the H2H is tied 2-2. Kohlschreiber has played great this season, except for his loss to Sandgren. Sousa struggles with guys that can return well. Kohlschreiber isn’t the best returner, but he is good enough.

Daniil Medvedev at -571 for 2 units. Medvedev has taken the leap to the top of tennis, Ryan Harrison hasn’t. The Russian won 80% of his first serve points last round. He’s hot.

Tennis

Australian Open Round 2 Preview

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

8-6 on tennis in 2019 down 1.77 units

Murray is sadly out, but Nadal and Federer are immortal it seems. I will enjoy watching both of them tonight. I do think Nadal has a better chance than the last few years to win his second AO title. Federer and the Joker are obviously the favorites, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a youngin like Zverev won it. The second round is usually one of my favorites because there are usually some big upsets. Last year had the most upsets at an Australian Open ever, but I think this year will be more tame… (besides all the Murray press conference and all that obviously).

Fognini won the first two sets in close tiebreaks where Munar could have won, but he kept hitting the ball into the net. Then in the third set, Munar tweaked his leg and retired to give our boy Fognini the 3-0 win. Munar left the court for treatment and Fognini started putting Munar’s racquets and stuff up for him. That packing of the bag for a fallen opponent is the type of good karma/juju I like to see in the players I bet on frequently. That is all.

Nikoloz Basilashvili -5 at -123 for 4 units. Stefano Travaglia is playing in his first main draw at the AO. Travaglia won against Andreozzi in the first round, which is mildy surprising, but Andreozzi is not a hardcourt specialist. Basilashvili has been in the best form of his life over the past 12 months. Nikoloz will be able to find a lot more baseline winners than the Italian he is facing will. Travaglia has a great serve, but Nikoloz will be able to force enough break points to win the match.

Fernando Verdasco -6 for 4 units. Radu has the talent to beat Verdasco, but Verdasco has too much experience to let that happen. The Moldovan #1 Radu Albot secure his first main draw win here by beating Michael Mmoh. Verdasco has only made it to the quarters here once, but he will take advantage of this easy draw.

Kevin Anderson -6 at -103 for 5 units. Frances Tiafoe is not in the type of form it takes to return Anderson’s serve. Anderson is 3-0 against Tiafoe. Anderson is 4-0 in the second round of this tournament. Adrian Mannarino made Anderson look bad in the second set of his last match, but then Anderson turned it on and dominated. Anderson leaves the switch on here.

Roberto Bautista Agut at -303 for 2 units. Bautista Agut hasn’t lost since October and he is 3-0 against Millman.

Schwartzman/Basilashvili/Anderson/Verdasco/Opelka/Monfils/Bautista Agut Parlay risking 2 units to win 10.24 units. Schwatzman’s return game and ability to place winners will be too much for Denis Kudla. Opelka = Isner; therefore, Opelka will beat Fabbiano. Monfils has the experience to beat Fritz.

 

 

 

Tennis

Australian Open Round 1 Continued

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

5-5 on tennis in 2019 down 5.48 units

Andy Murray was defeated in 5 sets by Bautista Agut in his last Australian Open. Murray has won infinitely more Olympic Golds than Roger Federer (2-0). I hope Murray can win at least one match in Wimbledon..

Fabio Fognini at -223 for 4 units. Jaume Munar plays solid tennis, but Fognini made it to the round of 16 here last year and will want to do at least that this year. Munar won two matches in Grand Slams last year, but he is not on the same level of Fognini. Fabio can be inconsistent, but a major title should be enough to get even his attention. Fabio is one of the best tennis players in the World on his day. I enjoy watching his volatility.

Daniil Medvedev -6 at -170 for 4 units. The young South African, Lloyd George Harris doesn’t have much of a chance here. Medvedev beat Murray, Raonic, and Tsonga last week. Daniil has been one of the best young players over the past 12 months and that will continue in this tournament. Medvedev is savvy, rested, and ready. Medvedev came into the AO last year on little rest, this year he took Sydney off to be ready to claim his first victory here.

Mischa Zverev at +179 for 2 units. If Zverev is fit he will win…

Borna Coric -7 at -127 for 2 units. Coric is out of form, but Steve Darcis got beat (6-1,6-2,6-0) against Pella the last time he was in a major. Coric has lost 4 first round matches in a row here, but this is his easiest opponent by far.

 

 

Tennis

2019 Australian Open Round 1

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

3-2 on tennis in 2019 up 0.03 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -309 for 2 units. Berrettini nor Tsitsipas have been in great form so far in 2019. The only other time these two played, Stefanos won in a 3rd set tiebreak. Berrettini would have to place shots that he hasn’t placed this year to beat the Greek.

John Isner at -265 for 4 units. Isner should be more heavily favored against Opelka even though he didn’t win a match as the 1 seed last week.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at -704 for 4 units. Molleker doesn’t have the experience. Schwartzman’s return game is too strong.

Andrey Rublev at -215 for 3 units. Rublev is far more talented than McDonald. Rublev’s back is a concern, but that shouldn’t be a problem till later in the tournament.

Joao Sousa (+2.5 Sets) at -719 for 4 units.

 

 

 

 

Football

NFL Sunday – Chargers at Patriots and Eagles at Saints

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67-53-5 on the NFL up 30.53 units

Colts had a chance to backdoor cover but they found another penalty. I have never seen a team with so many costly 5 yard penalties in a playoff game. That is pre-season shit. C’Mon Man to every Colt that committed a penalty. The scoreline looked like a big win for the Chiefs, but that game was close. Indy has a bright future, especially if they sign Bell…

The Rams pushed the over with their big 17 point second quarter. A healthy Gurley is fun to watch, but CJ Anderson has been great over the past few weeks as well. I’m not mad at my Panthers for releasing him. We have Christian McCaffrey. I’m not mad. I’m not mad. Anderson was just my fill-in for Mike Tolbert in my love life and now I realize how much I miss Mike Tolbert. 

Los Angeles Chargers +4 (+6.5) and New Orleans Saints -8 (+6.5) 2 Team (6.5 point) Teaser – risking 5 units to win 4 units. I haven’t lost a NFL teaser all season…. this is my second one. Let’s go down memory road, I bet the Chargers on the road as underdogs against the Seahawks and Browns earlier this year and won. Then, I bet on the Steelers at home against the Chargers, Chargers came back from down 2 touchdowns. Then, I bet on the Chiefs at home against the Chargers, Chargers came back from down 2 touchdowns and then they complete the 2-point conversion. Needless to say, I am done betting against the Chargers. Bill Belichick is 6-1 against coaches in their first postseason, but I am not betting against the Chargers. San Diego will keep it within double digits and possibly win.

Are the Saints the team to end Big Dick Nick’s amazing playoff run? Yes. New Orleans has allowed 17 points a game and has 16 takeaways since week 10. That’s good. Drew Brees has never lost a home playoff game. Kamara and Thomas have been relatively quiet towards the end of the season… they eat today.

Football

NFL Saturday – Colts at Chiefs and Cowboys at Rams

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66-52-5 on the NFL up 31.36 units

The Bears losing on a double doink shows the full power of Nick Foles. Unreal.

Colts +6 at -120 for 5 units. Chiefs went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. 10-0 against non-playoff teams. Colts are the hottest team in the NFL. Eric Ebron has 11 RedZone Tds this season. The Chiefs lead the league in touchdowns allowed to TEs. T.Y. Hilton will feast on this KC secondary, like he actually might get 220 yards. I’m not exaggerating. Colts will win the battle at the line of scrimmage. Indy has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season. Luck with a clean pocket against the KC secondary should scare the shit out of KC fans. Mahomes is good, but Andy Reid’s clock management issues, Indy’s O-line, T.Y. Hilton, and Indy’s ability to stop the run win them this game.

Rams/Cowboys over 48 at -115 for 5 units. Sean McVay likes points. You need more info? The Rams scored 30+ points in 12 games this season (T-most in NFL). LA’s home games average over 65 points a game this season. Dallas does have a good defense, but life is too short to bet unders.

Soccer

Premier League Saturday – Can Liverpool Keep Winning?

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

4-4-2 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.11 units

Leicester City at -112 for 3 units. Southampton haven’t got a quality win since they beat Arsenal almost a month ago. Leicester manager Claude Puel has never lost to his old club. Vardy and Maddison will not give Southampton’s back 4 a rest. Leicester win at home.

Liverpool -1 at -214 for 3 units. Mo Salah scores for fun against Brighton. Liverpool has lost two in a row. Klopp won’t lose thrice in a row.

 

Soccer

January Transfer Window – Pulisic to Chelsea & More

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The noteworthy January transfer window transactions:

Christian Pulisic/Dortmund has signed an American record 73 million dollar deal with Chelsea. Chelsea will loan him back to Dortmund until the end of the season. Good business by Dortmund. Dortmund have an amazing scouting department. A lot of Chelsea fans will be popping up in the United States, especially near Hershey Pennsylvania, where Christian is from. I have some friends that are Fulham fans because of Dempsey… Chelsea is a lot easier of a team to be a fan of. Thorgan Hazard is rumored to be the replacement for Pulisic at Dortmund. Eden Hazard still hasn’t signed a new contract with Chelsea… is a move to Real Madrid looming?

Keylor Navas has signed a 16 million Euro deal with Arsenal. Good business for Arsenal. Navas makes their first 11 better for less than 20 million. Have to do it.

Samir Nasri signed with West Ham after his 18-month doping ban. Nasri has played well at Marseille, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Sevilla. If he can find some solid form, he could add some needed creativity to the West Ham attack.

The 36-year-old-free-kick-taking Naldo has signed with Monaco. He adds some experience to a young, underachieving Monaco club. Thierry Henry needs his Monaco club to start playing better futbol if he wants to manage there next season.

Monaco are in the news again with the signing of Cesc Fabregas. Thierry Henry is coaching Cesc Fabregas for a Ligue 1 team. If that doesn’t make you feel old, then you should tell the kids on the playground about this site. Fabregas didn’t seem to fit at Chelsea recently, but it is hard to provide service for attackers like Willian and Morata, who look like they couldn’t be bothered to actually play soccer. Monaco is doing all they can to get out of 19th place and the relegation zone in France. Cesc should help.

Manolo Gabbiadini, who has the Peakeist Blindiest name in World Futbol, has left Southampton for a return to the Italian club, Sampdoria, for the fee of 12 million Euros. Sampdoria get some help at top to supplement the aging Fabio Quagliarella.

Brahim Diaz has been signed by Real Madrid for a 17.3 million Euro fee from Man City. Mahrez cost 60 million Euro and was always going to play more than Diaz. I’m sure some City fans would rather develop Diaz than play Mahrez, but Mahrez is no slouch. Real Madrid could use him with Isco falling out of favor and Bale being injured. Diaz could be a better Asensio one day.. and I love Asensio.

Real Betis has signed Diego Lainez from Club America for a 14 million Euro fee. Lainez is a quick left winger, who should add some needed creativity outside for Betis for the years to come.

AC Milan have signed the former Fluminese youngster, Lucas Paqueta, for a 35 million Euro fee. Milan’s future looks bright. Here’s a video for those that don’t know Paqueta. If Paqueta’s fine football skills as a visual with a former One Direction member on vocals doesn’t get you going. Nothing will. Absolutely nothing.

Paulinho and Talisco have both chased the money and gone to GZ Evergrande in China.

Tennis

ATP Sydney Semi-Finals

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

2-2 on tennis in 2019 down 3.69 units

Alex De Minaur -1.5 sets at +134 for 3 units. Alex De Minaur, the runner-up here in Sydney last year, faces-off against Gilles Simon. Andreas Seppi is waiting in the final. Home advantage for the Australian De Minaur. De Minaur leads the H2H 1-0. De Minaur has 3 straight straight-set defeats against Dusan Lajovic, Reilly Opelka, and Jordan Thompson. Poor of the ATP to “make” these players play this close to the Australian Open starting. De Minaur has a match on Monday in a Grand Slam! Simon is 15 years older than De Minaur. Simon has an “easy” draw in the AO with Jack Sock and the injured Alexander Zverev in his way. Simon looks ahead here and rests his old body.

Soccer

Copa Del Ray

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

3-3-2 on Soccer in 2019 down 2.49 units

Sevilla at +215 for 4 units.

Sevilla/Bilbao draw at +225 for 3 units. After seeing the lineups… Sevilla should be favored. Both teams are rotating heavy for this midweek match, but no Munian, Inaki Williams, Benat, de Marcos, Dani Garcia, Herrerin, and Inigo Martinez in the starting lineup for Bilbao. Sevilla are sitting some stars too, but Andre Silva, Promes, Franco Vazquez, and Nolito should be able to do enough to secure the away draw. I wanted to bet the over 2, but I Bilbao will find it tough to score and Sevilla’s offense seems more deadly when Ben Yedder or Sarabia play.

Barcelona at -203 for 4 units. Barcelona is hot, Levante is not. I still don’t think Messi and Barca have forgiven Levante for ruining their invincible season last year (even though they beat Levante (5-0) this year. I like this spot if Messi plays.