UFC – Fight Night 144

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

3-1 in 2019 up 1.66 units

Charles Oliveira at -119 for 5 units. Oliveira has 3 performances of the night in a row. He has the most UFC submission wins all time with 12. Jim Miller was like what’s happening to me and then rear-naked choke time. Clay Guida was like what’s happening to me and then guillotine choke time. Charles is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Charles says he will fight 5 times this year. He is an animal. Oliveira deserves a top 5 fight if he wins this one against David Teymur. Oliveira’s grappling and flexibility get him the win. If you want to see Charles take someone bigger to the ground… Scroll/Look up.

Livia Souza at -217 for 3 units. Souza’s opponent came in 7 pounds overweight. The bout will proceed as scheduled though, with Frota forfeiting 40 percent of her purse to Souza. Souza called her opponent unprofessional. This is Sarah Frota’s first UFC fight. She may not have many more sadly.

Magomed Bibulatov/Rogerio Bontorin over 2.5 at -209 for 3 units. If Bibulatov can defend against Bontorin’s rear naked choke, this will go over. Bibulatov got knocked out in the first round of his last bout, but Bontorin doesn’t have the punching power. I am betting Bibulatov’s chin holds up here. Submission defense will be the key to this over and the fight for Magomed.

College Basketball Saturday – Lotta Virginia Hoops

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

13-13-1 this season up 2.29 units

George Mason +8 for 3 units. I bet against GMU once this season and they really surprised me with how well they played. Coming into the season I did not think Mason would do this well. They struggled a little in non-conference, but are tied atop the A-10 right now. The Siegel center is never an easy place to play. VCU has one of the best home-courts in the country. VCU lost at Rhode Island. GMU dominated at Rhode Island. Basketball is a game of matchups. Marcus Evans and De’Riante Jenkins are solid for VCU, but 9 points is a lot in a rivalry game.

Virginia -19 for 3 units. UVA has one loss on the year and that was a 72-70 loss to Dook. Miami has lost their last 4 games. Virginia has the best defense in the country. Miami’s defense has about 13 lapses a game. UVA is 16-4 ATS. Miami is 6-14 ATS. This line should be above 20.

Old Dominion -12 for 3 units. Rice doesn’t have the size or defense to keep up with ODU on the road. BJ Stith is a fun guard to watch for the Monarchs. He averages almost 8 rebounds a game as a guard.

Ohio State/Florida State/Dayton/Kansas/Charleston/IPFW Parlay risking 2 units to win 6.75 units. I always seem to get Kansas games wrong this year. Kansas, nobody likes a parlay killer.

Premier League, La Liga, and Bundesliga Saturday

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

8-10-2 on Soccer in 2019 down 14.22 units

Crystal Palace at +105 for 3 units. Fulham hasn’t won a league game on the road this season. Michi Batshuayi could be just the goal scoring threat Palace need. Michi could not find any form at Valencia, but with Zaha’s mazy runs leading to opportunities… he may find some form at his new home.

Dortmund +0 at -157 for 10 units. I love Frankfurt, but I think Dortmund is the only team with more weapons going forward than Frankfurt in Germany. Luka Jovic and Haller have have combined for 24 goals in the league for Frankfurt. Reus and Alcacer have combined for 24 goals in the league for Dortmund. The difference is Sancho and Witsel. Dortmund’s relentless attack will catch Frankfurt flatfooted a few times. Frankfurt leave too much space between their two central defenders for my liking. Werder Bremen capitalized on this in Frankfurt’s most recent game. Dortmund will take advantage too. Also, Frankfurt seems to allow players a little time at the edge of the box before really clamping down. Dortmund will take advantage of this said time.

Barcelona at -287 for 5 units. Barcelona have won 8 in a row and 7 in a row at Camp Nou. Barcelona scores the most goals in the league. Valencia scores the least. Messi has scored in 9 straight league games. Busquets, Dembele, and Umtiti are all out, but Coutinho may have found some form with a brace midweek. Valencia doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Barca.