Our New Podcast: Thoughts and Locks by Sportsologists
There is an intro episode posted above. Episode 1 is below. The sound quality is below-average, but the content is there. Neal and I will be recording our picks on there so stay tuned. We will be purchasing better equipment. Even NPR started somewhere… and our gambling picks are already way better than theirs..
71-52Â on College Football in 2018Â up 53.33Â units
16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units
2-0Â on College Football in 2019Â up 6.31 unitsÂ
Houston and Wisconsin have both covered for me. It has been a good start to the college football season. Looking at the numbers for the weekend, but I like this parlay of favorites. Not the sharpest, but these teams all have a high probability of winning.
Boise State/Ohio State/Clemson/Auburn/Kentucky Parlay risking 4 units to win 3.97 units. Bachmeier is playing his first game on the blue turf tonight. The Freshman QB was impressive in Week 0 and I expect that to carry over. Marshall should struggle a little on the road against Boise.
Ohio State’s run defense should cause Cincinnati problems. Luke Fickell is playing against his old Buckeyes here. I don’t think Ohio State should be a two touchdown favorite, but I like them to win the game.
Clemson is Clemson and they have Trevor Lawrence. Auburn beat Oregon and now they face the Green Wave. Tulane ran the ball all over FIU, but I expect Auburn to force them to pass, which means Tulane will have a hard time sustaining drives. Kentucky struggled a smidge vs Toledo, I expect them to come out firing against Eastern Michigan.
91-44-6Â on tennis in 2018Â up 42.63 units
44-52Â on tennis in 2019Â down 49.77 units
D. Medvedev -2.5 Double Faults at -130 for 4 units. Medvedev’s abductor/thigh/core problem has caused him to double fault a lot more than normal in this tournament. The Russian had 12 double faults in his last match against Wawrinka. Dimitrov played a longer match than Medvedev (a win against Federer), but only had 7 double faults. Medvedev has had more double faults than his opponent in his last 4 rounds.
Nadal/Berrettini over 30.5Â at -108 for 1 unit. I think Berrettini has a strong enough serve to win a set. Berrettini’s inside-in forehand has been world-class this tournament. Nadal is Nadal and the clear favorite to win this tournament, but I expect a little more drama here.
69-58-5Â on the NFL last season (2018/19)Â up 26.36 units
0-2 on the NFL this season down 3.00 unitsÂ
Rodgers over 2 Tds/David Montgomery over 48.5 yards at +127 for 2 units. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 2 touchdowns in this new offense. I am confident. A lot of people love David Montgomery, I am not that high on him, but I think he can get 50 yards in the Jordan Howard role at least.
Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions at +110 for 4 units. Screens. Check-downs. Cohen had 71 receptions last season. 71 divided by 16 is 4.4375 receptions a game. Jordan Howard is gone. Montgomery has been added. I still think Cohen will have a similar role. If the Bears are down, Cohen is going to catch some balls, but even if he is not I like this play.
92-78-9Â on Soccer in 2018Â up 8.17 units
36-32-9Â on Soccer in 2019Â down 12.41Â units
Spain at -200 for 6 units. Romania has done well against lower-ranked teams, but this is a step-up in competition. Spain have scored at least 2 goals in every away game since the World Cup. Romania are actually undefeated at home against Spain in their last 6 matches. Impressive, but those games date back decades. Spain has the better national team now. Morata (or Alcacer), Ramos, Isco, Asensio, and others should get the job done. Keseru has been scoring for Romania, but Ramos and Alba should be able to contain him.
92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units
42-39 on MLB this season down 4.86 units
When the Mets were up 10-4 in the bottom of the 9th, I thought they had it won. I am no Mets fan, but I learned what it is like to be a Mets fan over the past few decades on September 3rd, 2019. It was a slow burn of the Nationals scoring 7 runs in the 9th that ended with a walk-off bomb. It pushed the Mets further out of the playoffs. I still won money on the day thanks to the Twins, but Jesus Mets.
Tigers first 5Â at -130 for 3 units. Matthew Boyd. Royals can’t hit that well. Kansas City have won 4 in a row, but I think they lose the first 5 today. Merrifield is an impressive 17-36 against Boyd. If Boyd can handle the KC leadoff man, this should win easy.
92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units
41-38 on MLB this season down 5.46 units
Twins at +130Â for 2 units. The Red Sox have to go on a win streak they haven’t gone on all season to make the playoffs. The Twins have just been the better team this year. Minnesota have won 8 of their last 9. Have to take them at plus money.
Mets at +124 for 2 units. Mets need this win more than the Nationals do. DeGrom and Scherzer today. Two greats. Max hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in his last 3 starts. I like deGrom to go deeper in the game and that may be the difference in who wins this one. The Mets won both deGrom-Scherzer matchups already played this season.
91-44-6Â on tennis in 2018Â up 42.63 units
44-50Â on tennis in 2019Â down 41.77 units
Djokovic’s shoulder caused him to not be himself and retire against Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka played great though. Wawrinka’s fellow Swissman, Roger Federer, has to be a little happy that Djokovic can’t narrow the Grand Slam title gap even more this year. It is now Fedal’s tournament to lose.
Wawrinka -1.5Â at -112 for 2 units. Medvedev has an abductor problem and has been taking a lot of pain pills. He overcame his injury, the crowd, and a set/break deficit to beat Dominik Koepfer in 4 sets.
“I took as many painkillers as I could. And you guys, being against me, you gave me so much energy to win. Thank you. Guys, continue to give me this energy,” Medvedev trolling the fans during his post-match on-court interview.
Medvedev is the 5th highest seed the World, but an underdog in this match. I could see Medvedev getting broken early in a set and giving up the set 6-2 or 6-1. That would be huge for the spread. I would not be shocked if Wawrinka covered and lost the match because of Medvedev’s injury. Going with the more experienced, healthier player here.
Federer -6.5 at -112 for 6 units. Federer is in his groove. He started off slow the first two matches this tournament… and it seems Vegas hasn’t adjusted to his strong starts in his last two matches. He should be -8.5 according to my numbers (not a system just basic stats) in this match. Grigor Dimitrov has only won 2 sets in 7 meetings against Federer and never won a match against Fed. Dimitrov has had an easy road here for the US Open, but now it gets a lot tougher. Federer is far too consistent for this to be a close match in my eyes. Federer will be eager to make his first semi here since 2015. This tournament has been a good sign for Dimitrov next season..
91-44-6Â on tennis in 2018Â up 42.63 units
44-49Â on tennis in 2019Â down 38.77 units
Federer/Medvedev/Djokovic Parlay risking 3 units to win 2.42 units. The cream rises to the top today. That is all.
71-52Â on College Football in 2018Â up 53.33Â units
16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units
1-0Â on College Football in 2019Â up 4.55 unitsÂ
Auburn beat Oregon. Mack Brown and North Carolina beat South Carolina. Alabama rolled Duke. I am silly happy football is back.
Houston +23Â at -115 for 2 units. The debut of Jalen Hurts for Oklahoma tonight. The Qb that is built like a runningback should do well in the Oklahoma offense. OU’s defense last year was terrible. Houston should score enough to cover. I expect OU to run the ball more and have a lower-scoring, but efficient offense.
