66-35-4 on tennis up 15.94 units
Fabio Fognini at +138 for 2 units. Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying the best season of his young life; however, so is the Italian #1. Fognini is still going for an Italian record in 4 ATP World Tour Titles in a season. That should be enough motivation for him. Fognini’s ankle is a worry, but this value is too good to pass up. Stefanos is more atheltic than most players on tour, but not Fognini. Fabio has only lost to Del Potro this month. Tsitsipas struggles against players with good serves (lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets last tournament). Fognini’s serve will be enough here. The Italian had 7 aces in the first set before Chung retired yesterday. These are two of my favorite players. Should be a good one.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at +120 for 2 units. Schwartzman has made it to the finals here the past two years and will look to do it again today. Gael Monfils has not made a final since 2016. Diego beat Gael in straight sets earlier this year, but lost to him 3 years ago. Obviously I put more weight in the matchup that was this year. Monfils is the better player on this surface, but I can’t pass up on this value as Diego loves Antwerp. He has won 9 out of 12 matches here in his career.
John Isner at -204 for 1 unit. I thought this line would be around -270 so I will take the perceived value. Ernests Gulbis is tied in the H2H with Isner 3-3, but Isner has won 3 of the past 4. Gulbis struggled against Jack Sock and only had a 56 first serve percentage. That won’t get it done against Isner.
Andreas Seppi at -132 for 3 units. Both players are capable of winning this match and are fairly even. I like Seppi because he has won the past two matches between these two on this surface in straight sets. Adrian Mannarino will be happy making it this far as he lost 6 matches in a row recently. Mannarino last beat Seppi on a hardcourt a decade ago. Mannarino has a much easier path to this semifinal. Adrian has not beat a player of Seppi’s caliber in a while.