Back From Vegas Baseball

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

27-29 on MLB this season down 13.34 units

I went 4-2 on sportsbook bets while in Vegas. I won money on blackjack and craps, but lost even more on roulette. My friend’s lost 10 times what I bet at strip clubs… That is sadly not a joke.

St. Louis Cardinals +109. Fading Yu Darvish in this battle for the NL Central. Darvish has a 5.40 ERA against the Cardinals this season.

Seattle Mariners +113. Leake is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA in four July starts for the Mariners. Mariners are on a 5-game win streak. I’ll take that at plus money.

Houston Astros -1½ +121. In Verlander and Houston’s offense I trust.

Atlanta Braves -110. Teheran gave didn’t give up an earned run in his last start. Braves can’t let the Nationals win this one. Nationals are only 4.5 games back from the division lead.

San Francisco Giants +112. Drew Smyly fade. He has never pitched against the Giants. San Fran’s better pitching prevails.

All for 3 units. 

MLB Home Run Derby

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

26-29 on MLB this season down 20.19 units

Home Run Derby H2H Pete Alonso over Carlos Santana at -175 for 12 units. Every time I bet against Josh Bell and the Pirates, Josh Bell hits a home run. So I am not betting against him today. I think Alonso wins the derby, but this is a “safer” play than him against everyone else at +350. Alonso said the key was to hit more homers than anyone else. I like where his head is at. 20 of Alonso’s homers this season have traveled over 400 feet. That’s power. Plus, Alonso is a rookie, so he could prolly use the million dollars.

MLB July 3rd

Rest in Peace Tyler Skaggs. The Angels pitcher passed away in Texas on July 1st. Skaggs was married just last year. He was on pace to post a personal best in strikeouts, innings pitched, and numerous other categories. It seems he was just hitting his prime in baseball and life. Sad to see. RIP.

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

25-26 on MLB this season down 12.12 units

Tigers Game 1 at +130 for 3 units. Daniel Norris, the starter for Detroit today, is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts against the White Sox this season. Dylan Cease is getting his first start for Chicago today. Cease was acquired from the Cubs two years ago and is one of the best pitching prospects around. Cease has been pitching well in the minors for two years.. he should be ready, but I am going against him in his first MLB start.

Brewers at +124 for 3 units. Jhoulys Chacin pitched well in his last start, a 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Milwaukee lost on an error that Cincinnati and Puig capitalized on in extra innings last time out. The Brew Crew won’t let that happen again.

Dodgers -1.5 at -122 for 3 units. Buehler will pitch better than he did in his most recent start against the Rockies. Merrill Kelly is starting for the first time against the Dodgers.

Astros -1.5 at +112 for 5 units. Peter Lambert gives up a lot of hits. That is not good against this Houston lineup. Wade Miley gave up only 1 run in his most recent start for Houston. Miley is 7-2 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 career appearances against the Rockies. The over/under is at 14 for this game! Colorado’s bullpen has been booty lately. Taking the runline with an over/under this high is fun. Winning money is fun. Let’s have some fun.

MLB June 28th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

24-24 on MLB this season down 6.19 units

Braves at +131 for 3 units. Mike Soroka hasn’t received a loss in his last 10 starts. He should get NL rookie of the year at this rate. DeGrom doesn’t scare me. That is all.

Angels at -134 for 3 units. Noe Ramirez and Mike Trout have been great this season. Noe gets the start for the Angels today. Angels have won 4 in a row. Ohtani is seeing the ball well. Felix Pena will come in for Noe pretty early I’d imagine, but the Angels bats and bullpen have been too hot to bet against (Pena has struggled against the A’s recently).

Brewers at -144 for 7 units. Brewers are 6-1 against the Pirates this year. Pittsburgh’s bats and pitching were hot against Houston, but I expect them to cool off a little here. Chacin has looked a little better for Milwaukee over his past 2 starts. Cain back in the lineup helps. Milwaukee has 32 more homers this season against righties than Pittsburgh. Both starters today are righties. The Brew Crew bats better at home. Chris Archer gives up a homer about every 3 and half innings this season. This game is going to come down to getting hits with RISP.. I like the Brew Crew to come through..

MLB June 26th – Matthew Boyd and the Tigers Get a Win?

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

23-23 on MLB this season down 7.12 units

Tigers/Rangers under 8.5 at -104 for 5 units. Matthew Boyd has not looked like the Ace Detroit thought he would be, but he hasn’t been awful either. Boyd continues to rack up strikeouts. He’s recorded at least six in each of his past seven starts, but the Tigers have lost seven of his past eight starts. Detroit’s bats have been average lately, but Castellanos, Goodrum, and Cabrera hit Mike Minor well. I just see a 4-1 win for Detroit today. Gut call of sorts. Neither pitcher has done well against the other team historically.

Astros/Astros – Pirates over 9.5/Phillies Parlay risking 4 units to win 14.01 units. Astros are gonna ball out on Pittsburgh today. The Phillies should win against Jason Vargas and the Mets.

MLB June 23rd

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

21-22 on MLB this season down 11.31 units

Marlins at +161 for 3 units. Marlins are 2-0 with Jordan Yamamoto starting (the pitcher they received for Christian Yelich). Yamamoto has pitched 14 innings this season without giving up a run. The rookie Enyel De Los Santos starts for Philly. The Phillies have lost 6 in a row. “There’s not a single part of our game that is where it needs to be.” – Gabe Kapler, manager of the Phillies, said after his first ejection the other night..

Braves at -147 for 3 units. Mike Soroka is going for his 9th win in a row tonight. Atlanta overcame Folty’s poor start last night. Folty has been optioned to triple-A ball. Austin Voth is making his debut for the Nats against a hot Atlanta lineup.

Yankees/Mariners Parlay risking 2 units to win 4.91 units. Orioles suck. Good Value on the Yankees today against Verlander.

MLB June 21st

MLB June 19th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

19-19 on MLB this season down 8.11 units

Milwaukee Brewers -1½/Los Angeles Angels -1½ Parlay risking 2 units to win 6.80 units. Brewers won’t get swept by the Padres with Zach Davies on the mound. Milwaukee is second in the league in homers off of lefties. They face a lefty in Matt Strahm today. Angels have beat the Blue Jays all 5 times this season. Ohtani, Trout, Calhoun, Upton, Fletcher, and La Stella have all been hitting well of late.

Cleveland Indians -1½ at +126 for 2 units. Cleveland has been one of the best hitting teams over the past 7 days, while Texas has been one of the worst. Joe Palumbo, the starter for the Rangers, doesn’t scare me.

Los Angeles Dodgers/Pittsburgh Pirates Parlay risking 2 units to win 2.28 units. Pirates have been alternating wins and losses and they lost last night. Trevor Williams was pitching well, but this is his first game back from injury. Williams is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA against the Tigers. In Rich Hill I trust.

MLB June 13th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

19-18 on MLB this season down 5.11 units

Tigers -1.5 at +123 for 4 units. Matthew Boyd has lost his last two starts, but has only allowed 6 runs combined over his last 4 starts. Homer Bailey has given up 7 runs over his past two starts for the Royals. Last time Boyd pitched here in Omaha, he pitched a complete-game, four-hit shutout, helping Oregon State beat Indiana 1-0 in an elimination game. Detroit gets back 2 back wins for the first time since May today.

MLB June 12th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

18-15 on MLB this season up 0.77 units

The White Sox have some exciting young talent…

Cardinals -1.5 at -116 for 2 units. Miles Mikolas is only 4-6 on the year, but he has had a quality start in 6 of his last 7 starts. Jordan Yamamoto is starting for the first time for the Marlins. Yamamoto was received by Miami when they traded Christian Yelich away.. Guess who won that deal? Nobody on Miami hits Mikolas well and the Cardinals bats are getting hot. Cards should win easy again.

Astros at -131 for 2 units. Pitchers duel. Brandon Woodruff is 8-1. Verlander is 9-2. Verlander gave up 3 Earned Runs in his last start, but that is because AJ Hinch took him out too soon in my opinion. Woodruff has given up 3 or more runs in each of his last 2 starts. Astros are hitting the ball better over the past 10 days and I think Verlander will go deep into this game.

Tigers at +122 for 2 units. This game is a coin flip. You take a 50/50 shot at plus money.

Padres -1.5 at +125 for 2 units. As long as the Padres don’t send Trey Wingenter out of the bullpen, they will win. Shaun Anderson, the starter for the Giants tonight, gives up more than a hit per inning. San Francisco’s bats have been cold. Padres are the better team with the better starter.

Padres/Astros/Braves/Cards -1.5 Parlay risking 2 units to win 15 units. Braves should win batting against Mitch Keller and his 13.50 ERA. Mike Soroka is 7-1 for the Braves this year. I wrote about the other teams above.