Category: Baseball

70-73 on the MLB down 5.55 units

Athletics at +174 for 4 units. Severino is 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA in his last 12 starts. Severino allowed 6 runs last time he played Oakland on September 5th. Athletics will string together some hits. Yankees broke a major league record for homers, hitting 227 on the season. Oakland actually hit more road homers this season than New York. Yankees started the season hot, Athletics finished the season hot. There is too much value in this play to pass up. Liam Hedriks is starting for Oakland. He has not pitched more than two innings in any of his 25 appearances this season, but the A’s have the 3rd-best bullpen in the MLB.

70-72 on the MLB down 2.55 units

Cubs at -130 for 3 units. Cubs have a bullpen that is about 2 ERA points better. Rizzo, Bryant, Murphy, and Lester should be enough for the Cubs here. Rockies have had to go from Colorado, to LA, to Chicago in two days. Colorado’s offense is pretty bad on the road. Cubs had a chance to beat the Brew Crew, but the Cubs could not get a hit against Milwaukee’s stellar bullpen. Cubs have an OPS of almost .800 against lefties at home. Kyle Freeland, the pitcher for the Rockies, is a lefty. Cubs have the experience, the home-field advantage (travel included), and a better bullpen.

69-71 on the MLB down 3.30 units

Listening to Hittas by Lil Wayne as a I write this, “been doin‘ numbers since Roman numerals.” 

I am going to count these games today as a part of my playoff record. This means I placed a 140 MLB wagers this season.. and got juiced. I love playoff baseball and look forward to seeing if the Red Sox (or someone else) can knock off the Astros. One of these underdogs will win, book it.

Brewers at +115 for 5 units. Cubs won the season series 11-8, but the Brewers are the hotter team. Jose Quintana had a good September, but he gives up too many home runs for my liking (25 on the season). Jhoulys Chacin has given up 8 less homers in 18 more innings. I bring up the homers because of Christian Yelich. The man has been insane since the all-star break and over Milwaukee’s recent 7 game win streak. Yelich is batting .323 on the season with 36 homers and 109 RBI’s. Silly numbers. Yelich had two homers two games ago, the Tigers were over it and just started intentionally walking him last game. Chicago’s bullpen ERA is 3.95 over the past month, Brewers have a 2.03 bullpen ERA in that same timeframe. Brewers have the hotter bats and the hotter bullpen.

Rockies at +157 for 5 units. Rockies have the hot bats. Dodgers have the hot pitcher. Something has to give here. I think the Rockies want to win more here. David Dahl has a home run in 6 of the last 7 games. Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle last time out. The 9th in Colorado’s history. That is not even mentioning Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. Dodgers draw the most walks in the MLB, that is the key to the game. Colorado’s German Marquez is 14-6 when he walks 2 or fewer batters with a 3.04 ERA.

69-68 on the MLB up 4.70 units

Dodgers -2.5 at +115 for 2 units. Walker Buehler has an ERA below 1.80 in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks bullpen is tired. Dodgers offensive lineup will be too much for the Diamondbacks here again. Dbacks seem to have given up a little bit.

Cubs at -162 for 4 units. Cubs had 9 baserunners last night and scored only 1 run. That 1 run was a Cole Hamels homer. That won’t happen again obviously, but they will string together some more hits today. Cubs feel the Brewers on their tails and will want to get a win here. The pressure is on. Been fading Chris Archer all year and not going to stop now. Cubs will hit more than one homer tonight. Mike Montgomery only allowed 1 earned run last time out.

Cardinals at -112 for 2 units. Gio Gonzalez has not pitched all that well since his trade to the Brewers, but last time out he was sterling. Austin Gomber only has 1 loss on the season. Gio allowed 5 runs the last time out against the Cards. Cards blew it last night and need a win here for the final wild card spot.

69-67 on the MLB up 6.70 units

The Braves, Indians, and Red Sox have all clinched their division. The Astros are close to clinching the AL West, but they already have a playoff spot secured. The Yankees have clinched a wild card berth, and the Athletics need a couple more wins to clinch theirs. The only drama left in the regular season is who will win the NL Central and the NL West. The will be an odd team out between the Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, and Brewers. It is looking like it will be the Rockies.

Cubs at -149 for 2 units. Cubs are 47-27 at home while the Pirates are 34-40 on the road. Cubs hit better, have a better team ERA, and a better BAA, so it is no surprise that the Cubs are in the playoffs and the Pirates are not. A Cubs win here would put them that much closer to clinching the division. Hamels had a 1.57 ERA with his new team before his disastrous outing last time out. I think that was an accident more than a trend.

67-66 on the MLB up 4.78 units

The Red Sox beat the Yankees and clinched the AL East last night. The Athletics beat the Angels 21-3.

Red Sox at +120 for 2 units. Trevor Bauer may be a little rusty after coming off the DL here. Chris Sale has 222 strikeouts on the season. Sale does not have the best history against the Indians, but I like him here.

Brewers at -132 for 2 units. Brewers are 5-11 vs the Pirates this season. That win total should regress towards the mean. These two starting pitchers have been solid for most of this season. Nova is going for a three game win streak here for the Pirates.

Diamondbacks at -118 for 2 units. Rockies have an awful bullpen. Greinke is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts against the Rockies this season. Diamondbacks need to get back on track here and I think they do.

Blue Jays at -136 for 6 units. Not a full writeup because I am running out of time. Evan Phillips will not win this game for the O’s. Ryan Borucki has been fine for the Blue Jays. Both teams are out of contention but the Blue Jays just beat the Yankees twice.

65-64 on the MLB up 2.57 units

Rays at -109 for 2 units. Snell is 6-0 with a 1.42 ERA in seven starts since coming off the DL. Rays had won 12 in a row at home before the Indians beat them last time out. Tampa Bay knows they can’t lose too many more games if they want to make the playoffs. Donaldson went 0-4 in his debut for the Indians.

Cardinals at -101 for 2 units. Cardinals have won 3 in a row. Jameson Taillon has pitched well against the Cardinals recently. St. Louis is 2.5 games out of the division lead. I think they keep their winning streak going today. Cardinals are 30-23 in day games while Pirates are 26-26.

Diamondbacks at -108 for 2 units. I like Patrick Corbin a lot. Diamondbacks are 2.5 games back of the division lead behind the Rockies. Diamondbacks have the better pitching and I think that shows tonight. Also, Jon Gray did not look at that great his last time out.

64-63 on the MLB up 3.77 units

Just can’t seem to get up big on MLB like I do other sports. Season is not over yet, I’ll run it up during the playoffs. Have some solid leans today.

Athletics at -167 for 3 units. The A’s have won 4 in a row and all 3 games this season against the O’s. I love betting against Alex Cobb. Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty can hit. Fiers is 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA in six Oakland starts. Thought this line would be over 200 so I will bite.

Brewers at +115 for 3 units. Value play. Jose Quintana gives up some homers and I think the Brew Crew can capitalize. Cubs have lost 3 in a row. Brewers have won 4 in a row. If Brewers beat the Cubs tonight they are tied with Cubs. Quintana  gave up five runs and three home runs in five innings against Milwaukee last time they faced. I like this spot.

64-61 on the MLB up 7.77 units

Tigers at +303 for 1 unit. Why not? Jordan Zimmerman is starting for the Tigers and he can get a win.

Rockies at -134 for 4 units. Brett Kennedy does not scare me at all for the Padres. Colorado has to get a win tonight if they want to win the division. They can’t keep losing to the Padres..