Clippers at -122 for 4 units. Mavericks are 11-5, but have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA so far. It gets tougher tonight for them. The Clippers have a top-10 offense and defense. Paul George came back last week and the Clippers haven’t lost since. Doncic is a stud, but I think Kawhi, PBev, and PG13 can do enough to slow him down. Beverly has been playing better on offense of late. I like the Clippers depth and top-tier defense to stop Doncic enough for the win.
Michigan State lost to Virginia Tech last night. Landers Nolley II and Virginia Tech were chucking up 3s. Mike Young’s Hokies were not supposed to be 6-0 in his first year, but here they are.
VT shot less 3s and made more 3s than the Spartans. Winston is not 100% yet. It’s Turkey season, the Gobble Gobble Boys had to win against the Spartans.
Wisconsin lost to Richmond. Wisconsin did not have enough players that could get a bucket in the half-court. Richmond did. As a VCU fan, it hurts me to say this, but Richmond has 4 good players in Nick Sherod, Jacob Gilyard, Blake Francis, and Grant Golden. The Richmond/VCU games should be fun this year. Richmond and VCU are both undefeated after 6 games.
Old Dominion/Auburn/William & Mary Parlay risking 4 units to win 7.77 units. Washington State is in a transition year. Old Dominion has lost their past two games to in-state rivals James Madison an George Mason. I lost about 8 units on this ODU team against JMU. If ODU loses this one, I am quitting them cold turkey. CJ Elleby is about all Washington State has. Malik Curry, Xavier Green, and Aaron Carver get the job done for the Monarchs.
Samir Doughty and Auburn are not going to lose to Richmond. The line is -475, but it should be closer to -600. William & Mary’s two 7-footers go up against Morehead State tonight. Both W&M and Morehead State are 4-2. William & Mary have lost to Stanford and Oklahoma. Morehead State doesn’t have the size to stop the Tribe down-low.
Wichita State -4 at -112 for 3 units. South Carolina has the size advantage on the Shockers. Erik Stevenson and Jamarius Burton are smart guards for Wichita State. The Shockers will utilize drive and kicks and the 3 ball to neutralize the Gamecocks size advantage. South Carolina only shoots 27.5% from deep. Wichita State plays solid interior defense. I like this spot.
Northern Iowa +6 at -110 for 3 units. Cancun Challenge continues. Toughest game for West Virginia and UNI here. West Virginia has the size advantage, but UNI shoots 11 more 3s a game and makes them at a higher %. Will the shots fall on a neutral court? I think they will for UNI.
BYU +11 at -110 for 3 units. BYU is coming off an 11 point win against UCLA. Kansas is far more talented, but TJ Haws and BYU are shooting the ball well lately. BYU is an old team, most of their players are juniors and seniors who have already completed their mission trips. BYU is experienced and can make 3s. Kansas has the size advantage, but I like BYU to keep it close in Maui.
Clemson +5 at -115 for 2 units. Clemson plays Colorado in the MGM Resorts title game in Las Vegas tonight. Colorado has a great defense and a bad offense. Clemson has a good defense, and a below-average offense. Could be a nasty 11:30 PM EST game, so why not bet the underdog? Tevin Mack, the former Texas and Alabama player, is Clemson’s best player this season. He is shooting 44% from deep. If Clemson are winning at halftime, I may just take Colorado -3 or whatever it is at halftime and go to bed. I stay up later than Tony Kornheiser, but 1 AM may be pushing it with college basketball and Champions League starting at Noon at Wednesday.
Hornets +4 at -105 for 7 units. I hate betting on my favorite NBA team, but this year is different! I love Kemba, but the Hornets have been more fun to watch with the youngsters playing. Caris LeVert, Wilson Chandler, and Kyrie Irving are out for Brooklyn. Oh yeah, KD is out too. Miles Bridges and PJ Washington can ball out in the frontcourt for the Hornets. Devonte’ Graham is averaging 18.3 points a game. Graham leads the Eastern Conference with 49 3-pointers. He is top-10 in assists this season too. Rozier had a shitty game against the Raptors, but he will play better tonight. Brooklyn played terribly against the Pacers without Irving. The Hornets are coming off of a bad loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn’s defense, shooting, and rebounding has been below league average over the last 10 days. Not a good combination of things. Going with the healthier, “better against the spread” team here.
For those that don’t know, a teaser allows you to buy points across multiple games. All the games have to win like a parlay. A tie counts as a loss. See in my teaser below, I got 3 games that were at a half point so I can’t push and lose. You are never supposed to buy across 0 in a teaser. So if you do a 6 point teaser of a team at -2 and get them to +4. You are losing value on the 0 and the 4. That’s two numbers that you still lose on/can’t happen. Parlays are simple. You win them all, you get a slightly bigger payout than if you bet them all by themselves, but if one loses. You lose.
St. Johns -4.5/Old Dominion -5.5/Memphis -10.5 Teaser (bought 6 points) risking 5 units to win 6 units. Colombia is 1-3 with a win against Binghamton. St. Johns is 3-1 coming off a loss to Vermont. The Red Storm will be ready to play tonight against the less athletic Colombia. Old Dominion will beat James Madison. JMU just lost to George Mason by 13. ODU is better than George Mason this season. Aaron Carver and Xavier Green can ball out for ODU. Memphis goes up against a Little Rock team that is playing a little better than they did last year. Memphis has too much talent for Little Rock. The Tigers have too much size at home, even without Wiseman.
Old Dominion/Boston College/Colorado State/Saint Mary’s CA Parlay risking 5 units to win 4.95 units. Nik Popovic and Boston College are coming off of a lose to Belmont. They will be ready to play against Eastern Washington. EWU lost to St. Louis by 22. Colorado State is 3-1 with a loss to Duke. Nico Carvacho will be the biggest player on the court and he has some skills for someone his size. Saint Mary’s lost to a Winthrop team that Fresno State beat. The Gaels know this and come ready to play.
Arkansas State +11.5 at -110 for 3 units. Arkansas State does have a size advantage on the wings and a little more depth than Colorado State. I expect Colorado State to win at home, but it could be close. J.J. Matthews and Marquis Eaton could cause some problems for the Rams. A hedge out of my parlay of sorts. Still like the parlay, but mitigating risk here.
Virginia -14.5 at -115 for 3 units. Virginia has the best scoring defense in the country. They are top-10 in rebounding and not committing personal fouls as well. Mamadi Diakite, Kihei Clark, Braxton Key and Jay Huff are all good players. Virginia is missing key pieces from last year’s championship team, but they are still great at defense.
Pepperdine +11 at -102 for 2 units. USC is 4-0, but they haven’t played anybody amazing yet. Pepperdine is 3-1 with a loss to Cal. Colbey Ross is a talented guard for the Wave. Pepperdine have beat two NCAA tournament teams already this season. Nick Rakocevic is going to cause problems for the Pepperdine big men, but I like the Wave to keep it close.
Kentucky plays their first game since losing to Evansville. Kentucky is a 25 point favorite against a 3-1 Utah Valley team tonight. Evansville plays SMU tonight at home. That SMU matchup and the Willam & Mary/Oklahoma game are they only two matchups of undefeated teams tonight. Oklahoma is favored by 16 against Willam & Mary, but both teams have covered every game this season. Something has to give. The Tribe have two 7-footers in Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. They can cause problems.
Auburn -16 at -120 for 4 units. Auburn is 3-0 at home. Colgate is 0-3 against the spread. The VCU-transfer Samir Doughty is playing well (18.5 / 7 / 2.8) in his senior year at Auburn. Freshman Isaac Okoro can shoot from deep and drive. I watched the Colgate-Clemson and Colgate-Syracuse games, Rapolas Ivanauskas and
Will Rayman are tall big men for Colgate, but Auburn has more athleticism on the wings. Bruce Pearl can use Auburn’s speed and coach around Colgate’s twin towers. Colgate was a tournament team last year that returns their 5 leading scorers. The Raiders will get some easy buckets, but Auburn will figure them out by halftime.
Idaho +5 at -110 for 3 units. UC Davis got beat by Loyola by 34 points. Idaho has some talented players like Trevon Allen, Marquell Fraser, Ja’Vary Christmas, and Quinton Forrest. The Red Wolves Classic gets underway in Arkansas with this game. I’ll take the points on a neutral court.
Harvard -9 at -110 for 3 units. This line has opened at -12.5, but heavy betting on Sienna has driven it to 9. I’ll jump in and fade the public and take Harvard to win by double digits. Harvard’s defense will be too much for the Saints.
St Mary’s -20 at -110 for 4 units. St Mary’s were favored by 19 against Winthrop and lost straight up. The Gaels are 0-2 ATS this season, but are favored by 20 against a California State Long Beach team that lost to UCLA by 4. Randy Bennett’s team returned 4 starters from last year’s NCAA tournament team. They will come out firing tonight. Malik Fitts can ball.
Florida (Basketball)/Bucks/Mavericks Knicks over 215/North Carolina +4 (Football)/Alabama (Football)/Penn State(Football)/Wake Forest +34/Hawaii -7/Appalachian State/Chiefs risking 1 unit to win 34.56 units.
Florida is coming off a loss to in-state rival Florida State. Towson is 2-1, but with wins against terrible basketball schools. The Gators have a lot more talent. The Bucks go up against the Bulls. The Bulls have been “easy” to bet on this season, as they have won and lost every game they were supposed to (except for the Hornets maybe). Giannis takes care of business. Mavericks play a Knicks team that they lost to last week. Dallas only scored 102 points in that game. They get at least 110 tonight.
North Carolina and Pittsburgh have played everybody close this season. Now they face each other, I’ll take the points. Alabama and Penn State will win coming off of tough losses. Wake Forest should keep it relatively close against Clemson. Wake has quietly been one of the best teams in the ACC this year. The over under for Hawaii UNLV is set at above 70. Hawaii have scored over 37 points in their last 3 games. Hawaii will simply outscore UNLV. App State is coming off a win against South Carolina. They will beat Georgia State. I like the Chiefs on Monday Night, but the line should move to 4 or 5 by gametime, so when the parlay makes it that far, you can sprinkle a little on Chargers +4 to guarantee winning money.
Switzerland/Austria/Florida/Penn State/Cincinnati/Appalachian State/Panthers/Saints/Bills Dolphins Over 41 risking 1 unit to win 8.24 units. A little Euro action to start this parlay. Switzerland and Austria both have in-form players against inferior opponents. Both countries will want to win too based on their group standings in these qualifiers. I wrote about Florida, Penn State, and App State above. Cincinnati had a scare against ECU, but rebounded for the 50 point win against UConn. They keep it going against USF. The Panthers and Saints are coming off of a loss. The Panthers didn’t have their LT and best CB against the Packers and the referees. They won’t have the refs sucking Rodgers off to compete against this week. CMC runs all over the Falcons. The Saints won’t lost to the Falcons and Buccaneers in back 2 back weeks right? RIGHT? Finally, Buffalo played Miami in Buffalo and there were 52 points scored in that game. 41 is too low for Fitzmagic and Josh Allen. Either could throw a pick 6 in this one. There will be at least 45 points in this game in Miami (barring a hurricane).
Will Wade was Shaka Smart’s first hire for VCU in 2009. Wade was an assistant on VCU’s Final Four team in 2011. Wade left the VCU program 4 days after losing to St. Mary’s in the NCAA tournament. Samir Doughty, Malik Crowfield, and De’Riante Jenkins were Wade’s big recruits for VCU. Doughty helped lead Auburn to a final four last year after transferring from VCU once Wade left. Jenkins and Crowfield are seniors and still play for VCU. They will want their revenge tonight.
Wade’s LSU was 25-5 last season, when the FBI came down on him hard for a phone conversation between Wade and former Adidas consultant Christian Dawkins. Wade cusses and says things like “I went to him with a [expletive] strong-ass offer about a month ago. [Expletive] strong.” The phone call was supposedly about Ja’Vonte Smart, who is averaging 11.1 points a game. How Will Wade is still coaching I don’t know. If the FBI can’t stop a coach from cheating, why are they even involved in college basketball?
Both LSU and VCU are loaded with experience. At the start of the season, I would have said VCU will win, but I went to the North Texas game at VCU.. The Rams didn’t play their best game, but they did go on a 20-0 run at one point and won the game. The close win knocked the Rams out of the top 25. LSU are #23. The Siegel Center will be loud and I expect it to be a close game. The teaser below is an emotional hedge of sorts because I want Will Wade to lose and VCU to win.
LSU +8½ / Northern Iowa -4½ / Villanova +6½ Teaser risking 4 units to win 5.45 units. I think the VCU/LSU game will be close. When Shaka Smart and the Longhorns came back to Richmond, Texas won by 4 in 2017. Then VCU won by 1 in Austin last season. These “former coach vs VCU” games are usually close. Villanova looked great against Army and I expect them to put up enough points to keep it close and prolly win against Ohio State. Northern Iowa will beat Cal State at home.
Syracuse -10.5 at -105 for 4 units. The Orange will like playing Colgate after losing to Virginia. UVA allowed Syracuse to score 34 points. Colgate will have a harder time on defense. Clemson beat Colgate by 13. I expect an even bigger win here for Cuse.
