Category: Football

Football

Monday Night Football – Bengals at Steelers – Panthers Win!

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Chiefs won, but the Patriots didn’t cover. Tom Brady seemed to not see a defender in the RedZone and threw a un-Tom-Brady-like interception. The Buffalo defense is good, but New England has the better team. New England forced Josh Allen to stay in the pocket, Allen was only 1-3 outside of the pocket with an interception. Allen got knocked out of the game by Jones, but should be okay. Bills and Patriots now go back to their super easy schedules.

Kansas City won because of Kerryon Johnson’s fumble going into the endzone.. which Breeland picked up for a 100 yard fumble recovery touchdown. McCoy and Da. Williams looked solid, Mahomes will have better games.

My Panthers win!! Watson missed a deep ball to Will Fuller and Nuk in the game, that could have been the difference. Watson had insightful comments about the Panthers defense after the game..

Kinda annoying the Saints and Bucs won too as a Panthers fan, but a wins a win a win.

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

12-20 on the NFL this season down 19.52 units

Tonight’s Plays: 

Bengals +3 at +105 for 3 units.

Bengals/Steelers over 44.5 at -116 for 3 units. Pittsburgh has won their last 8 games against the Bengals, but Big Ben, Bell, and/or AB were playing in those. The Steelers run defense has been bad. Mason Rudolph has only completed 56.5% of his passes, while James Conner is averaging less than 3 yards a carry this season. Geno Atkins is going to have to step-up for the Bengals.. Eifert and Mixon are going to have to be involved in the passing game more. People are predicting an ugly game, but these defenses have been bad at tackling and great at giving up big plays. I expect some defensive lapses that lead to points. Bengals win 28-24.

Joe Mixon will have 15 or more carries at -140 for 4 units.

Joe Mixon will score 1 or more touchdown(s) at +110 for 2 units.

Joe Mixon will have over 18.5 recieving yards at -120 for 2 units. Pittsburgh is bottom-5 in the NFL at defending against running-backs. Joe Mixon has 100+ scrimmage yards or a TD in 2 straight games vs. Pittsburgh. Jeff Wilson Jr. got two touchdowns against Pittsburgh last week. Joe > Jeff. Pittsburgh gives up around 5 yards a carry. I think Mixon is going to feast tonight. Mixon has struggled a little this season, but he improved last week with 4 yards a carry against a great Buffalo defense. I expect he continues his higher level of play tonight.

Football

NFL Sunday Week 4

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We’ve got two meetings of undefeated teams this week. New England and Buffalo. Chiefs at the 2-0-1 Lions. Monday Night features two teams that haven’t won a game in the Steelers and Bengals. The Dolphins are 15 points or more underdogs again. I’m excited to watch Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones start again. Let’s get it

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

12-18 on the NFL this season down 12.52 units

Patriots -7/Chiefs Parlay risking 5 units to win 7.48 units. Lions safety Quandre Diggs said. “He’s going to break every record in NFL history if he keeps this up” when speaking of Patrick Mahomes. There is the Mahomes – last time he played indoors he threw for 586 yards and 6 touchdowns angle. I just don’t see the Lions beating Kansas City. Kelce is going to be a problem. Shady McCoy and Dimebag Darrel will hold down the backfield. Stafford has been spreading the ball around well, 4 different players have a 100 yard receiving game this year Detroit.. Kansas City will give up some points, but I like them to get some big plays like they do every week.

Patriots should be favored by 10. The Bills have lost 6 straight to the Patriots. Buffalo’s talented young RB, Devin Singletary is out with a hamstring injury. He can have mine if he wants. Tom Brady hasn’t played well against the Bills lately, but the Patriots had 273 yards rushing against the Bills last December. James White is back in the lineup. Burkhead is probably playing. Buffalo does have a good defense this year, but the Pats defense is on another level. Neither of these teams have played anybody good yet, but I’m going with the team that has given up less than 6 points a game.

Colts -7 at +110 for 2 units. Raiders are bad. Mack is good, The running-back for the Colts – and the one they traded away. Derek Carr is 11-23 since breaking his leg against Indianapolis. Darius Leonard, T.Y. Hilton, and Malik Hooker are out, but I don’t care.

Football/Soccer

Weekend Parlay

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2-1 on these parlays.. Let’s win another!

Colts/Rams/Valencia-Bilbao over 2/Liverpool/Juve/Bayern/Manchester City/TCU/Michigan State Parlay risking 2 units to win 16.43 units.

Listen to the podcast “Locks and Thoughts” for more info.. The Podcast is on iTunes, Castbox: Podcast Player, and Soundcloud. Also, it is posted above.

Football

College Football September 27th/28th

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9-8 on College Football in 2019 up 6.64 units

Penn State -6 at -115 for 6 units. Feed KJ Hamler. Maryland is 111th in tackles for loss allowed. Maryland’s o-line is bad, especially with all their injuries. Penn State won 38-3 last year with 15 tackles for loss and 5 sacks. Anthony McFarland is a stud running-back for the Terrapins.. If the Nittany Lions can contain him, they will cover easy.

Vanderbilt -7 at -110 for 3 units. Ke’Shawn Vaughn ran all over LSU, so I expect him to dominate the game against a Northern Illinois team that struggles against the run.

Kentucky +3 at -105 for 3 units. Joyner is out for South Carolina. Sawyer Smith, their backup QB, got hurt in the game last week and isn’t 100%. Kentucky hasn’t lost to South Carolina since 2013. The Cocks are 110th in the nation in turnover margin and Kentucky can force some turnovers. Give me the points!!

Football

Thursday Night Football – Eagles at Packers Preview

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

11-17 on the NFL this season down 13.09 units

Eagles +6 at -140 for 5 units. Public is on the Packers. Buying a point here because I think it will be a low-scoring game. Philadelphia has lost the last two weeks by a combined 7 points. Alshon Jeffrey is back and Wentz needs him (The above image shows a Nelson Agholor drop, on a crucial 3rd down, in the loss to the Lions). The Eagles had 8 dropped passes last week according to an AP article by Keith Jenkins and 5 according to PFF. I’m going to believe Pro Football Focus. Keith must be a Cowboys fan. Keith is a very Cowboys fan name. Are you a Cowboys fan, Keith? 5 dropped passes is still the most in a game this season.

Davante Adams hasn’t scored a touchdown this year, but he has had sex. He became a dad on September 20th. Green Bay is top-3 in sacks and interceptions.. that would be impressive, but they have played Mitch Trubisky, Joe Flaccid, and Kirk Can’t-Win-A-Game-Against-A-Team-With-A-Winning-Record. Wentz actually looks like a NFL QB. I’ve thrown tide pods into the wash harder than Mitch threw one of his touchdowns to Taylor Gabriel last week. Green Bay’s offense is ranked 28th, but they have played solid defenses and are 3-0. Only 1 team has started 1-3, like the Eagles are now, and won a Super Bowl (Tom Brady, BB, and Ty Law). I’ll take the points in a must-win game for the Eagles.

Eagles/Packers under 49 at -135 for 3 units. Public is on over and the Packers, so I am buying a point in the opposite direction for both. To Generalize, Green Bay and Philadelphia both have good defenses and average offenses through 3 weeks. In a GreenZone turnover I trust. Is the GreenZone still a thing? It was so dumb, but I loved it.

Football

Saints at Seahawks Recap and Stats

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Saints won 33-27 with Teddy Two Gloves at QB. Deonte Harris’s punt return touchdown was the difference.

Seahawks:

  • Russell Wilson: 32/50, 406 yards, 2 TDs + 7 carries, 51 yards, 2 TDs
  • Chris Carson: 15 carries, 53 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, -2 yards
  • CJ Prosise: 4 carries, 5 yards + 5 targets, 5 receptions, 38 yards
  • Tyler Lockett: 14 targets, 11 receptions, 154 yards, 1 TD
  • DK Metcalf: 6 targets, 2 receptions, 67 yards
  • Will Dissly: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD

DK Metcalf is the first Seattle player to ever start their career with 3 60+ yard receiving games. A lot of people thought Metcalf was simply a speedster like Darrius Heyward-Bey, but I think he is more than that. Carson seems to be the workhorse, but he is trying to fumble away his job. Seattle had 1 TFL and that was by Bobby Wagner. Seattle still struggles at pressuring the QB and the backfield, even with Clowney. Seattle needs to get better in the trenches.

Saints:

  • Teddy Bridgewater: 19/27, 177 yards, 2 TDs + 3 carries, 12 yards\
  • Taysom Hill: 1 catch for 5 yards + 1 rush for 5 yards
  • Alvin Kamara: 16 carries, 69 yards, 1 TD + 10 targets, 9 receptions, 92 yards, 1 TD
  • Latavius Murray: 2 carries, 2 yards
  • Michael Thomas: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 54 yards, 1 TD
  • Ted Ginn, Jr: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 15 yards
  • Jared Cook: 2 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards

Kamara just ate up a lot of checkdowns. Kamara is so damn good. He is hard to bring down, slippery, strong, and balanced. Michael Thomas is not as good without Brees. The Saints haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since… Samaje Perine in 2017. Marshon Lattimore led the team in tackles and pass deflections. He is still a stud corner. The Saints have a solid defense, one of the best RB/WRs, and a great o-line. If I wasn’t a Panthers fan and all-in on Kyle Allen, I would predict New Orleans to win the division… but my bias is in the way..

 

 

 

Football

Texans at Chargers

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Texans win 27-20.

Texans: 

  • Deshaun Watson: 25/34, 351 yards, 3 TDs + 7 carries, 18 yards
  • Carlos Hyde: 10 carries, 19 yards, 1 TD
  • Duke Johnson: 2 carries, 2 yards + 3 targets, 2 receptions, 22 yards
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 67 yards
  • Will Fuller: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 51 yards
  • Kenny Stills: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 89 yards
  • Jordan Akins: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 73 yards, 2 TDs
  • Darren Fells: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD

Hopkins has been the focus of defensives and rightly so. The Texans d-line and Houston tight ends were the stars of the show. The Texans had 5 sacks. Kenny Stills feels like he is stealing targets from Fuller, but doing well with them. Deshaun Watson is playing great this season. Texans play the Panthers this week.

Chargers:

  • Philip Rivers: 31/46, 318 yards, 2 TDs + 2 carries, 9 yards
  • Austin Ekeler: 9 carries, 36 yards + 7 targets, 7 receptions, 45 yards
  • Justin Jackson: 5 carries, 26 yards + 4 targets, 4 receptions, 4 yards
  • Keenan Allen: 17 targets, 13 receptions, 183 yards, 2 TDs + 1 carry, 3 yards
  • Mike Williams: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 45 yards
  • Dontrelle Inman: 3 targets, 1 reception, 23 yards
  • Travis Benjamin: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 5 yards
  • Lance Kendricks: 2 targets, 1 reception, 13 yards

Keenan Allen is averaging 14 targets a game and I think he has been a close-second to Julio Jones as the best wide out in the league. Ekeler and Jackson have looked great, but it appears Melvin Gordon is coming back next week. The Chargers just seem to be hurting themselves too much. Luckily they get the Dolphins this week.

 

Football

Raiders at Vikings Recap

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Vikings win 34-14.

Raiders:

  • Derek Carr: 27/34, 242 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT + 1 Rush, 0 Yards
  • Josh Jacobs: 10 Rushes, 44 Yards + 2 Targets, 0 Catches
  • Andre Washington: 6 Rushes, 22 Yards
  • Jalen Richard: 2 Rushes, 15 Yards + 3 Receptions, 15 Yards
  • Darren Waller: 14 Targets, 13 Receptions, 134 Yards | 1 Rush, 7 Yards
  • J. J. Nelson: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 36 Yards, 1 TD
  • Tyrell Williams: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 29 Yards, 1 TD
  • Hunter Renfrow: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 28 Yards
  • Foster Moreau: 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 1 Yard

The Raiders are bad, but Tyell Williams and Darren Waller keep performing. Waller got the most balls by a tight end in Raiders history. Also, Waller has the most catches through the first 3 games in team history. I don’t think Gruden and Carr like each other. The Raiders could really use a dominant pass rusher like Mack… The Oakland defense is not good.

Vikings:

  • Kirk Cousins: 15/21, 174 Yards, 1 TD + 4 Carries, 16 Yards
  • Dalvin Cook: 16 Carries, 110 Yards, 1 TD + 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 33 Yards
  • Alexander Mattison: 12 Carries, 58 Yards, 1 TD
  • Mike Boone: 3 Carries, 28 Yards
  • Irv Smith Jr.: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 60 Yards
  • Adam Thielen: 5 Targets, 3 Receptions, 55 Yards, 1 TD + 1 Carry, 1 Yard, 1 TD
  • Stefon Diggs: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 15 Yards
  • Kyle Rudolph: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 11 Yards

Kirk Cousins is now 22-5-1 when his team rushes for 100+ yards since 2015… so take the ball out of one of the highest paid players hands basically. Cousins does have the longest touchdown streak in the league going at 19 games. Diggs is rumored to have asked for a trade. Can you blame him? He only had 3 targets this week. Mattison looks like one of the best backup running-backs in football, but Dalvin Cook has been the best running-back in football. Cook already has more 100 yard rushing games this year than his first two seasons. Eric Wilson had two sacks and Harrison Smith got the interception for Minnesota. Vikings travel to Chicago this week.

Football

Broncos at Packers – Green Bay Actually Has a Defense

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Packers win 27-16.

Broncos:

  • Joe Flacco: 20/29, 213 yards, 1 Interception, 6 sacks + 2 carries, 5 yards, 1 Fumble
  • Phillip Lindsay: 21 carries, 81 yards, 2 TD + 5 targets, 4 receptions, 49 yards
  • Royce Freeman: 15 carries, 63 yards, 0 TD + 5 targets, 4 receptions, 10 yards
  • Courtland Sutton: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 87 yards
  • Emmanuel Sanders: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 10 yards
  • Noah Fant: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 37 yards

Emmanuel Sanders is still the only player with a receiving touchdown for Denver this season. Freeman has over 50 rushing yards in the last 4 games. The Broncos pass rush is weirdly muted this season. Denver did not sack Rodgers. The Broncos are like the Redskins.. stuck in being below-average with some mismanagement problems.

Packers:

  • Aaron Rodgers: 17/29, 235 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
  • Jamaal Williams: 12 carries, 59 yards + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 27 yards
  • Aaron Jones: 10 carries, 19 yards, 2 TD + 1 target, 1 reception, 4 yards
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 99 yards, 1 TD
  • Davante Adams: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yards
  • Robert Tonyan: 3 targets, 1 reception, 4 yards
  • Geronimo Allison: 3 targets, 1 reception, -1 yard

Aaron Jones got out-snapped heavily by Jamaal, but Jones still got the valuable goal-line work. Jaire Alexander has been a beast for Green Bay on defense. Darnell Savage got the interception. Blake Martinez led the team in tackles and had 2 tackles for loss. MVS had a career day. Rodgers is now 15-2 in games with 5+ pass attempts and 0 sacks taken. Davante Adams is still a stud, but hasn’t performed to his high standards this season… I expect him to. It isn’t fair the Packers have a great defense and Aaron Rodgers. You have to pick one..