NFL Week 7 Recap – Redskins at Vikings Preview, You Like THAT?

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

24-35 on the NFL this season down 19.87 units

Redskins Successful Field Goals over 1.5 at +135 for 2 units. Playing in a dome. Washington will settle for field goals after not even scoring last week, just to feel good about themselves. Dustin Hopkins hasn’t made two field goals since week 1. He is due. Redzone turnovers can’t ruin my plays on Monday Night and Thursday Night right? RIGHT?

Redskins to score first at +200 for 2 units. Case Keenum will want to play well vs his former team. Mike Zimmer loves to defer if the Vikings win the coin toss. I am not convinced the Redskins won’t take the ball if they win.

Total Sacks over 4.5 at -130 for 4 units. These teams average 5 sacks a game combined on defense. Vikings should win this game easily, which means more passing opportunities for Case Keenum and the Redskins. If Haskins comes in, this will hit easy.

 

Chiefs: 30-6 win

  • Patrick Mahomes: 10/11, 76 yards, 1 TD + 1 carry, 2 yards
  • Matt Moore: 10/19, 117 yards, 1 TD + 1 carry, -1 yard
  • LeSean McCoy: 12 carries, 64 yards + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards
  • Damien Williams: 9 carries, 7 yards + 3 targets, 2 receptions, -1 yard
  • Darrel Williams: 2 carries, 1 yard + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 5 yards
  • Mecole Hardman: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 28 yards, 1 TD
  • Tyreek Hill: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
  • Demarcus Robinson: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 31 yards
  • Travis Kelce: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 44 yards

Broncos:

  • Joe Flacco: 21/34, 213 yards
  • Phillip Lindsay: 11 carries, 36 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, -4 yards
  • Royce Freeman: 10 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD + 5 targets, 4 receptions, 32 yards
  • Emmanuel Sanders: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 60 yards
  • Courtland Sutton: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 87 yards
  • DaeSean Hamilton: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 4 yards
  • Noah Fant: 5 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards

Sanders has been traded to the 49ers. Flacco looked awful. Matt Moore played better than Flacco. Moore got his first start in place of a 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde in 2007 for the Panthers. Moore is older than Flacco. Justin Simmons was the only defender on the Broncos that stood out. Fangio just doesn’t look like a head coach. Mahomes is out, but he should be back sooner rather than later. Hard to learn much from this game besides Denver is not good.

Cardinals: 27-21 win

  • Kyler Murray: 14/21, 104 yards, 2 sacks + 10 carries, 28 yards
  • David Johnson: 1 carry, 2 yards (injured)
  • Chase Edmonds: 27 carries, 126 yards, 3 TD + 4 targets, 2 receptions, 24 yards
  • Pharoh Cooper: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yards
  • Larry Fitzgerald: 3 targets, 1 reception, 12 yards
  • Andy Isabella: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 8 yards
  • KeeSean Johnson: 2 targets, 1 reception, 6 yards

Giants:

  • Daniel Jones: 22/35, 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 8 sacks, 3 fumbles + 4 carries, 35 yards
  • Saquon Barkley: 18 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD + 5 targets, 3 receptions, 8 yards
  • Golden Tate: 11 targets, 6 receptions, 80 yards
  • Bennie Fowler: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 35 yards
  • Rhett Ellison: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 33 yards, 1 TD
  • Cody Latimer: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards
  • Evan Engram: 5 targets, 1 reception, 6 yards

Daniel Jones is a fumble machine early in his career. Barkley tweaked his ankle, but looked good otherwise. You could tell he wasn’t 100%, but I expect him to go off this week. Golden Tate will get his. Cardinals play Teddy Two Gloves and the one-loss Saints this week. Cardinals have looked good lately, I am interested to see how they play vs the Saints.

Saints: 36-25 win

  • Teddy Bridgewater: 23/38, 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 sack + 4 carries, 7 yards
  • Taysom Hill: 2 carries, 21 yards + 2 targets, 1 reception, 4 yards
  • Latavius Murray: 27 carries, 119 yards, 2 TD + 6 targets, 5 carries, 31 yards
  • Michael Thomas: 11 targets, 9 receptions, 131 yards
  • Ted Ginn Jr.: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 48 yards
  • Josh Hill: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 43 yards, 1 TD

Da Bears:

  • Mitch Trubisky: 34/54, 251 yards, 2 TD, 2 sacks
  • David Montgomery: 2 carries, 6 yards + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 13 yards
  • Tarik Cohen: 3 carries, 10 yards + 12 targets, 9 receptions, 19 yards
  • Allen Robinson II: 16 targets, 10 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD
  • Anthony Miller: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 64 yards
  • Adam Shaheen: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 24 yards
  • Cordarelle Patterson: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 21 yards + 1 carry, 2 yards + return TD
  • Trey Burton: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 11 yards

Mitch Trubisky has a similar yards per attempt in his 3rd year to JaMarcus Russell and Jimmy Clausen had in their rookie years. Not good. Tarik Cohen was made fun of for being short and went off on twitter. Allen Robinson is good, but Mitch either isn’t healthy, or isn’t a franchise QB. Latavius Murray and Michael Thomas dominated. Thomas is 1 of 2 wideouts with 50 yards in every game this season.

Ravens: 30-16 win

  • Lamar Jackson: 9/20, 143 yards + 14 carries, 116 yards, 1 touchdown
  • Mark Ingram III: 12 carries, 46 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 7 yards
  • Gus Edwards: 8 carries, 35 yards
  • Mark Andrews: 8 targets, 2 receptions, 39 yards
  • Miles Boykin: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 55 yards
  • Seth Roberts: 4 targets, 1 reception, 9 yards

Seahawks:

  • Russell Wilson: 20/41, 241 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception + 3 carries, 27 yards
  • Chris Carson: 21 carries, 65 yards + 5 targets, 3 receptions, 9 yards
  • CJ Prosise: 1 carry, 17 yards
  • Tyler Lockett: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 touchdown + 1 carry, -3 yards
  • DK Metcalf: 9 targets, 4 receptions, 53 yards
  • Jaron Brown: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 60 yards
  • Jacob Hollister: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 20 yards

Has Lamar Jackson passed Wilson in the MVP race? I for one hope CMC wins it. Wilson’s pick 6 was the difference in the game. Marcus Peters is already making a difference for the Ravens. Earl Thomas got his revenge. Lamar Jackson is really fucking good for a running-back.

Raiders: 24-42 loss

  • Derek Carr: 22/28, 293 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT + 2 carries, Fumble
  • Mike Glennon: 2/3, 36 yards, 1 TD
  • Josh Jacobs: 21 carries, 124 yards + 3 targets, 3 receptions, 10 yards
  • DeAndre Washington: 6 carries, 29 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 12 yards
  • Trevor Davis: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 26 yards
  • Keelan Doss: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 54 yards
  • Hunter Renfrow: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards
  • Darren Waller: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 126 yards, 2 TD
  • Foster Moreau: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 24 yards, 1 TD

Packers:

  • Aaron Rodgers: 25/31, 429 yards, 5 TD + 2 carries, 6 yards, 1 TD
  • Aaron Jones: 12 carries, 50 yards + 4 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards, 1 TD
  • Jamaal Williams: 3 carries, 5 yards + 5 targets, 4 receptions, 26 yards, 1 TD
  • Danny Vitale: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 43 yards
  • Allen Lazard: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 42 yards
  • Geronimo Allison: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD
  • Jimmy Graham: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 64 yards, 1 TD
  • Jake Kumerow: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 54 yards, 1 TD

Derek Carr fumbled into the endzone and Rodgers turned it on after that. Waller finally found the endzone.. twice. Jones and WIlliams got cathcing Tds for Green Bay (first time two Packers Rbs caught Tds since the 90s). The Jones TD catch was impressive. Green Bay has no wideouts, but Rodgers don’t care. This was a “Are the Raiders legit game?” The answer is no.

Bills: 31-21 win

  • Josh Allen: 16/26, 202 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs + 4 carries, 32 yards
  • Frank Gore: 11 carries, 55 yards + 1 target, 1 catch, 11 yards
  • Devin Singletary: 7 carries, 26 yards
  • Patrick DiMarco: 1 carry, 4 yards + 1 target, 1 catch, 27 yards
  • John Brown: 6 targets, 5 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD
  • Cole Beasley: 6 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards, 1 TD
  • Duke Williams: 1 target, 1 catch, 23 yards
  • Dawson Knox: 5 targets. 2 catches, 22 yards
  • Isaiah McKenzie: 3 targets, 2 catches, 11 yards
  • Lee Smith: 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards
  • Andre Roberts: 1 target

Dolphins:

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: 23/35, 282 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT + 6 carries, 13 yards, 1 TD
  • Mark Walton: 14 carries, 66 yards + 1 target, 1 catch, -8 yards
  • Kenyan Drake: 6 carries, 21 yards + 4 targets, 3 catches, 37 yards
  • Kalen Ballage: 3 carries, 7 yards 1 TD
  • Preston Williams: 8 targets, 6 catches, 82 yards, 1 fumble
  • DeVante Parker: 10 targets, 5 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
  • Allen Hurns: 3 targets, 3 catches, 53 yards
  • Mike Gesicki: 4 targets, 4 catches, 41 yards
  • Albert Wilson: 2 targets, 1 catch, 22 yards
  • Durham Smythe: 1 target
  • Isaiah Ford: 1 target

Dolphins were up 14-9 with the ball on Buffalo’s side of the field… Then Fitzy threw an interception and the Bills rolled. Josh Allen is good. Dolphins are getting creative with their tanking. They almost made me think they were trying to win this game. John Brown is 1 of 2 wideouts with 50 yards in every game. Impressive. Frank Gore is still doing his thing. Is this 2010?

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49ers: 9-0 win

  • Jimmy Garoppolo: 12/21, 151 yards, 1 INT + 4 carries, 20 yards
  • Tevin Coleman: 20 carries, 62 yards + 2 targets, 2 catches, -1 yard
  • Matt Breida: 8 carries, 35 yards + 1 target, 1 catch, 1 yard
  • Jeff Wilson Jr.: 5 carries, 20 yards
  • George Kittle: 5 targets, 3 catches, 38 yards
  • Kendrick Bourne: 4 targets, 3 catches, 69 yards
  • Ross Dwelley: 3 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards
  • Dante Pettis: 2 targets
  • Richie James Jr.: 1 target, 1 catch, 40 yards
  • Levine Toilolo: 1 target, 1 catch, 2 yards
  • Marquise Goodwin: 1 target

R-words

  • Case Keenum: 9/12, 77 yards
  • Adrian Peterson: 20 carries, 81 yards
  • Wendell Smallwood: 5 carries, 23 yards + 1 target, 1 catch, 18 yards
  • Steven Sims Jr.: 1 carry
  • Trey Quinn: 3 targets, 2 catches, 30 yards
  • Steven Sims Jr.: 3 targets, 3 catches, 5 yards
  • Terry McLaurin: 2 targets, 1 catch, 11 yards
  • Jeremy Sprinkle: 2 targets, 2 catches, 13 yards
  • Paul Richardson: 1 target

Hard to learn much for this game. It was pouring rain. Bosa sliding 20 yards on the wet grass after a sack to end the game was fun.

Jaguars: 27-17 win

  • Gardner Minshew: 15/32, 255 yards, 1 TD + 9 carries, 48 yards
  • Leonard Fournette: 29 carries, 131 yards + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards
  • Ryquell Armstead: 3 carries, 3 yards + 1 target, 0 receptions
  • Dede Westbrook: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 103 yards + 2 carries, 14 yards
  • Chris Conley: 8 targets, 3 receptions, 83 yards
  • D.J. Chark: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 53 yards + 1 carry, 20 yards
  • Keelan Cole: 2 targets, 1 reception, 2 yards, 1 TD
  • Seth DeValve: 2 targets

Bengals:

  • Andy Dalton: 22/43, 276 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs + 4 carries, 33 yards, 1 TD
  • Joe Mixon: 10 carries, 2 yards + 2 targets, 1 reception, 2 yards, 1 TD
  • Giovani Bernard: 4 carries + 3 targets, 2 receptions, 4 yards
  • Alex Erickson: 14 targets, 8 receptions, 137 yards + 2 carries, -2 yards
  • Tyler Boyd: 14 targets, 5 receptions, 55 yards
  • Auden Tate: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 65 yards
  • Tyler Eifert: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 10 yards

Andy Dalton sucks and the Bengals can’t tackle. As a fellow Ginger, I wanted Dalton to be great in the NFL, but he was just good. Now he isn’t even good. Tyler Boyd has the 3rd most targets in the league. Auden Tate looks talented. Moustache Minshew did enough for the needed win.

Falcons: 37-10 loss

  • Matt Ryan: 16/27, 159 yards, 1 INT
  • Matt Schaub: 6/6, 65 yards, 1 TD
  • Devonta Freeman: 7 carries, 19 yards + 3 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards
  • Brian Hill: 5 carries, 11 yards + 2 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards
  • Julio Jones: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 93 yards
  • Calvin Ridley: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards
  • Austin Hooper: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 46 yards, 1 TD

Rams:

  • Jared Goff: 22/37, 268 yards, 2 TD + 3 carries, 3 yards, 1 TD
  • Todd Gurley: 18 carries, 41 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 13 yards, 1 TD
  • Darrell Henderson, Jr: 11 carries, 31 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards
  • John Kelly: 3 carries, 9 yards
  • Robert Woods: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 80 yards
  • Brandin Cooks: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 59 yards
  • Cooper Kupp: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 50 yards
  • Gerald Everett: 10 targets, 4 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD

Falcons don’t have a defense and Matt Ryan was bad today. Ramsey and Julio was a fun matchup to watch.

Chargers: 23-20 loss

  • Philip Rivers: 24/38, 329 yards, 2 TD
  • Melvin Gordon: 16 carries, 32 yards + 3 targets, -2 receiving yards, 1 TD
  • Austin Ekeler: 5 carries, 7 yards + 8 targets, 7 receptions, 118 yards, 1 TD
  • Keenan Allen: 11 targets, 4 receptions, 61 yards
  • Mike Williams: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 47 yards
  • Hunter Henry: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 97 yards
  • Virgil Green: 1 target, 1 reception, 9 yards

Titans:

  • Ryan Tannehill: 23/29, 312 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT + 5 carries, 7 yards
  • Derrick Henry: 22 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD + 1 target, 1 reception, 18 yards
  • Dion Lewis: 1 carry, 2 yards + 1 target
  • Corey Davis: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
  • A.J. Brown: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 64 yards + 1 carry, -2 yards
  • Adam Humphries: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 40 yards
  • Tajae Sharpe: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 19 yards, 1 TD
  • Jonnu Smith: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 64 yards

I bet on the Chargers. Melvin Gordon had 4 carries inside the 5. He fumbled two of them. That was the difference in the game. Tannehill looks better than Mariota for this offense. Aj Brown and Ekeler were the best players on the field in my eyes.

Colts: 30-23 win

  • Jacoby Brissett: 26/39, 326 yards, 4 TD
  • Marlon Mack: 18 carries, 44 yards + 3 targets, 3 receptions, 12 yards
  • Nyheim Hines: 1 carry, 3 yards + 2 targets, 1 reception, 13 yards
  • Jordan Wilkins: 2 carries, 9 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards
  • T.Y. Hilton: 11 targets, 6 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
  • Zach Pascal: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TD
  • Eric Ebron: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Texans:

  • Deshaun Watson: 23/34, 308 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Carlos Hyde: 12 carries, 35 yards + 1 target, 0 receptions
  • Duke Johnson: 7 carries, 34 yards + 5 targets, 2 receptions, 22 yards
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 12 targets, 9 receptions, 106 yards, 1 TD
  • Kenny Stills: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 105 yards
  • Keke Coutee: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 25 yards + 1 carry, 4 yards, 1 TD

Colts controlled both lines of scrimmage and won the game because of it. Indy’s offense is a lot better with a healthy Hilton. Watson will have better games.

Eagles: 37-10 loss

  • Carson Wentz: 16/26, 191 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT + 4 Carries, 12 Yards
  • Jordan Howard: 11 Carries, 50 Yard + 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 6 Yards
  • Boston Scott: 7 Carries, 32 Yards + 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
  • Miles Sanders: 6 Carries, 21 Yards + 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 11 Yards
  • Dallas Goedert: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 69 Yards, 1 TD
  • Zach Ertz: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 38 Yards
  • Alshon Jeffery: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 38 Yards
  • Nelson Agholor: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 24 Yards
  • Mack Hollins: 1 Target

Cowboys:

  • Dak Prescott: 21/27 239 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT + 5 Carries, 30 Yards, 1 TD
  • Ezekiel Elliott: 22 Carries, 111 Yards, 1 TD + 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 36 Yards
  • Tony Pollard: 8 Carries, 28 Yards
  • Amari Cooper: 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 106 Yards
  • Michael Gallup: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 34 Yards
  • Jason Witten: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 33 Yards
  • Randall Cobb: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 29 Yards
  • Blake Jarwin: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 1 Yard, 1 TD
  • Tavon Austin: 1 Target + 1 carry, 20 Yards, 1 TD

Eagles don’t have a defense. Wentz is 14-2 when sacked once or less in games. Wentz is 12-19 when sacked twice or more.

Vikings: 42-30 win

  • Kirk Cousins: 24/34, 337 yards, 4 TD + 4 carries, -3 yards
  • Dalvin Cook: 25 carries, 142 yards, 2 TD + 2 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards
  • Alexander Mattison: 7 carries, 18 yards
  • C. J. Ham: 1 carry, 9 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards, 1 TD
  • Stefon Diggs: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 142 yards
  • Adam Thielen: 2 targets, 1 reception, 25 yards, 1 TD
  • Olabisi Johnson: 8 targets, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD
  • Kyle Rudolph: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD
  • Irv Smith Jr.: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 60 yards

Lions:

  • Matthew Stafford: 30/45, 364 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Kerryon Johnson: 5 carries, 23 yards + 1 target
  • Ty Johnson: 10 carries, 29 yards + 4 targets, 4 receptions, 28 yards
  • J. D. McKissic: 5 carries, 29 yards + 3 targets, 2 receptions, 31 yards
  • Kenny Golladay: 2 targets, 1 reception, 21 yards
  • Marvin Jones Jr.: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 93 yards, 4 TD
  • Danny Amendola: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 105 yards
  • Marvin Hall: 2 targets, 1 reception, 47 yards
  • T. J. Hockenson: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 32 yards
  • Jesse James: 4 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards

Kerryon Johnson is out for at least 8 weeks. Kirk Cousins is still trying to trick us into believing he is a franchise QB. It is working on some people, not me. Marvin Jones had his annual 4 TD game this week. TY Johnson and McKissic are going to have to step up if Detroit wants to make a playoff push in their tough division. Golladay will have better games. Dalvin Cook is really fucking good when healthy.

Can’t Lose Weekend Parlay Round 2

2-3 on weekend parlay up 4.44 units 

2 of the 12 legs lost last week. Boise State of Idaho and Bayern Munich of Bavaria. I won’t let you down this weekend.

These are in order of start time: Arsenal plays Thursday afternoon in the Europa League, but all the others are on Saturday with 1 (Sevilla) on Sunday. Hayden ride with me! It only lost last week because you didn’t play it. Walker and I need you!

Arsenal/Bayern/Manchester City/Ohio State/LSU/Iowa/Oregon/Sevilla risking 2 units to win 9.22 units.

Arsenal beat St. Liege and Frankfurt. St. Liege and Frankfurt beat Guimaraes. Transitive property doesn’t work in sports gambling, but I am deploying it here.

Bayern won’t kill my parlay twice. Bayern are a point back from the top of the Bundesliga. They need a win here. They won’t lose at home here.

Manchester City have looked pretty amazing. Going to keep riding them even though Pep doesn’t have central defenders.

Ohio State is the best team in college football no cap. Wisconsin just lost to Illinois. Barstool Big Cat was bummed. 

I am not convinced Auburn is that good. I am convinced LSU is a wagon.

 

Iowa have not beat Northwestern since 2016. Iowa -10 is a lock on the the “Locks and Thoughts” podcast. Go download wherever you get podcasts #shamelessplug

Washington State are booty. Oregon will roll.

Sevilla is added as the only Sunday play. Once all the others win, you can take Getafe +0.5 at plus money to hedge out and guarantee some profit, or just let it ride. Sevilla has only lost to Real Madrid at home this season though. They are hard to beat in Seville.

Why the Panthers Should Trade Cam Newton.. I Hope They Don’t

Let me start off by saying I love Cam Newton as a Panthers fan. He won a MVP and led the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2015. When he is healthy, he is my favorite QB to watch in the league. Ideally, Allen would lead the Panthers to wins against the 49ers and Titans. Then Cam would come back and wreck the Redskins and lead the Panthers to another Super Bowl. The ideal result rarely happens with my professional sports’ teams Ex: Kemba and the Hornets. From everything I have read about Cam, he is a hard-worker, great father, and team player. Kyle Allen has said Cam has been helpful since Allen has been starting. I am saying all this to say I will miss him if he is traded, but I think it may be the best move for my favorite NFL franchise and here is why:

  1. He may never be healthy again. Cam has almost 1,000 designed rushing attempts in his career as a Panther. That does not include his QB hits as a Panther, sacks as a Panther, and all the hits he took while winning the Heisman at Auburn. The Panthers utilized/ran Cam into the ground in the pursuit of a Super Bowl. CMC is seemingly getting that treatment this season. Not saying it is a bad thing, but it is a reality in the NFL. Players wear out quicker when they are used more. Shocking I know. Kyle Allen’s best years are ahead of him. Cam’s are seemingly not.
  2. David Tepper, the owner of the Panthers, did not draft Cam Newton. Will Grier was drafted in the 3rd round of this year’s draft by the Panthers. Carolina and Tepper already realized Cam was declining in health before his lisfranc injury this preseason that was re-aggravated against the Buccaneers. Cam said he couldn’t run during the first two weeks of this season. The Panthers didn’t draft Will Grier to play this year. Kyle Allen was forced into action because of Cam’s injury and him having more experience than Will. Tepper and Rivera know Cam isn’t going to last forever and that is proven by the Panthers using a 3rd round pick on a QB this offseason. Kyle Allen is 4-0 as a starter and hasn’t thrown an interception. Is that enough to put the franchise in his hands?
  3. $21.1 million. If Cam Newton is traded before next season, the Panthers will have an extra $21.1 million to spend on other key players like Christian McCaffrey, Shaq Thompson, Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, and a new TE with Greg Olsen moving to the booth after this season. The “formula” that got the Seahawks (2013 and 2014), Rams (2019), and Panthers (2015) to the Super Bowl was a cheap QB on a rookie contract so you can ball out and splurge on the defense and offensive playmakers. Panthers already have a great defense and playmakers, but signing 1 or 2 more pieces would make them the cream of the crop in the NFL.
  4. Panthers have been drafting well of late. The Vikings gave up a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford not too long ago. The Panthers have hit on almost all of their high draft picks. If Carolina can get some high draft picks for Cam, they would have to consider it.

 

Now that we know why the Panthers would even think about trading one of their best players in franchise history.. The Panthers have a history of getting rid of franchise cornerstones. Julius Peppers, Steve Smith and more recently, Ryan Kalil and Thomas Davis.

Let’s look at who would want him..

  1. Da Bears. During his 3rd season, JaMarcus Russell’s YPA was 5.23. He never played in the NFL again after that. That same year (2009), Brady Quinn was at 5.23 YPA. He didn’t throw a pass again until 2012. Mitchell Trubisky is at 5.24 YPA in his 3rd season right now. The Bears are a QB away from making a Super Bowl in many people’s eyes. Mitch could still be a good NFL QB, but he hasn’t shown that this season. Newton could be a 1 to 2 year stop gap for a team with one of the best defenses in football.
  2. Broncos. I don’t think he is tall or pale enough for John Elway, but Cam would deff make Denver better for the foreseeable future. Even if Cam can’t run, Flacco can’t either.
  3. Dolphins. Miami are clearly tanking for Tua, but Cam could start over Tua for a year like Alex Smith and Mahomes. The Dolphins have the draft picks to make it happen.
  4. Redskins. Same as Miami. Haskins is a young QB that could learn a lot playing behind Cam.
  5. Raiders. Gruden and Carr don’t get along, I don’t care what they said during Hard Knocks. Raiders have the draft picks and Gruden clearly likes to trade.
  6. Titans. Mariota and Tannehill don’t seem to be the answer for head coach Mike Vrabel. Titans have solid players on both sides of the ball, but lack a QB.
  7. Teams I forgot.

It is not an easy decision to make. I already listed my ideal scenario as a Panthers fan above. I just think if there is a strong offer for Cam Newton, it could make the Panthers a lot better in 3-5 years to trade him now than keep him.

Patriots at Jets – Tom Brady Faces Mono-less Sam Darnold

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

24-32 on the NFL this season down 9.87 units

If I had Melvin Gordon in a fantasy league I would drop him because I had Chargers Moneyline and he blew it. I’m that bitter. Evan Silva tweeted that plays designed for Melvin Gordon are averaging 2.2 yards since his return. Chargers are 0-3 since his return. Gordon had 4 carries inside the 5 against the Titans. He fumbled two of them. Derek Carr didn’t even fumble that much. Maybe, my man’s should have kept holding out.. or at least hold onto the football.

Patriots/Jets over 48.5 at +165 for 2 units.

Jets over 16.5 at -105 for 2 units.

Patriots/Jets over 43 at -115 for 7 units. Bell only had 15 touches last week in the Jets win over Dallas. He will get at least 20 tonight. The Jets have averaged 20 points a game with Darnold starting (Bills, Cowboys). There were 44 points scored between these teams earlier this year, without Darnold. Luke Falk and the Jets were able to put up 14 points against the Patriots.. Granted, 7 of those points were on a Jarrett Stidham pick 6. I expect Darnold to get at least 20. The Bills in Buffalo have been the only team to hold the Patriots under 30 points this season. Gase can call enough good plays to get Crowder, Anderson, and Bell in space. No Josh Gordon for the Patriots. Mosley, one of the best linebackers in the league according to me, is back for the Jets. Patriots only allow 8 points a game, but the only good QB they have played was Josh Allen, who didn’t finish the game. Darnold has opened the box up a little bit for Bell. I expect the Patriots to win, but the Jets to put up enough points to push the over.

NFL Week 7 – Gut Time

Image result for earl thomas finger

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

22-28 on the NFL this season down 5.07 units

My Carolina Panthers are on BYE this Sunday.. So to keep my interests high I am betting a silly amount of money today. Ride with me. Going with my gut. I can’t lose money today. I’m waking up feeling dangerous.

Ravens/Seahawks under 49.5 at -120 for 2 units. Running-type game. It is going to be rainy in Seattle tomorrow. Know your weather. Yeah Lockett or Snead may catch a long touchdown, but I like Earl Thomas to help the under in his revenge game. Maybe he will give the finger to gum-chewing Pete again. Also, this random guy that has a fake record on twitter has the over as his max play. Fading him. Don’t want to put him on blast because he is my little secret. I am 3-0 fading him all-time.

Jaguars -3 at -155 for 2 units. Buying a point and a half. Bengals can’t tackle. Fournette should have a game. The Bengals have allowed 184.5 rush YPG this season. 184.5!!! Minshew rebounds after struggling for a couple weeks. Minshew still has the highest QBR through his first 6 games a Jaguar since ECU’s David Gerrard. Andy Dalton has looked almost as bad this season as Joe Flacco did on Thursday Night.

Redskins/49ers over 40 at -110 for 1 unit. Terry McLaurin and Adrian Peterson can get 14 points. The 49ers are going to score at least 30. Kyle Shanahan is going to fuck his old team up.

49ers -10 at -115 for 4 units. Kyle Shanahan is going to fuck his old team up. Oh, sorry. I already said that. The 49ers have an average point differential of +16.6. The Redskins beat the Dolphins by 1. The 49ers have covered every time I have bet on them this season. Oh I think they like me. RIP Buddie of Dem Franchize Boyz. Fuck Cancer.

Redskins inability to run the ball will hurt them early and then Case Keenum will make some mistakes later on. Book it.

Giants at -170 for 4 units. Cardinals defense blows. Daniel Jones has been sacked only 10 times this year. Eli Manning would have fallen down with no one around him at least that many times by now. Playing the Cardinals on 10 days of rest will be a breath of fresh air for the Giants after playing the Patriots. That sentence was a mouthful. Here are some short ones. Saquon is back. Engram is back.

Bills are my survivor pick. There are only 200 people left in my pool. Ryan Fitzpatrick could ball out, but I trust the Bills D at home.

Can’t Lose Weekend Parlay

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Feeling lucky. El Clasico has been postponed to due Catalonia’s protests. My Parlays have not been postponed.

2-2 on Weekend Parlays, but this is my first can’t lose one; therefore, I will go 3-2. Just put it blindly. I am up 6.44 units since I started doing these parlays. Let’s get it.

PSG/Manchester City/Bayern Munich/Barcelona/Sevilla/Florida/Auburn/Iowa/Cincinnati/Boise State/Penn State/Bills risking 2 units to win 27.02 units.

12 teams on this one. PSG are without Mbappe and Neymar, but they still have a better midfield and defense than Nice. City, Bayern. and Barcelona are all healthy and won’t lose their first game back from break. I trust Messi, Pep, Aguero, and Lewandowski. Sevilla at home is a no-brainer. Sevilla are my favorite club and they have only 3 losses this season, two were against Barcelona and Real Madrid. They will beat Levante at home. Start Chicharito!

I wrote about Florida and Penn State in my college football post here. 

Auburn, Iowa, and Cincinnati are all heavy favorites at home. They won’t lose. Just adding them to make this parlay a little more fruitful.

I love this Boise State team. They could be the parlay killer on the road at BYU, but with both starting Qbs out for these teams.. I trust the Boise State defense to show out.

 

 

College Football Week 8 Preview – Penn State Keeps Rolling and More

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11-11-1 on College Football in 2019 up 8.32 units

Betting on the teams with better playmakers. It is that simple this week.

UNC ML at -170 for 5 units. North Carolina travels to Blacksburg to face the Hokies. UNC is coming off of a BYE and Mack Brown said they practiced well without a game. Hendon Hooker was named the starter for Virginia Tech a few weeks ago and he looked great against Miami. UNC and VT have both beat Miami this season. The Hurricanes came out flat as Kyrie Irving’s Earth against the Hokies. The Heels will have more energy.

I was at the Miami/UNC game and Sam Howell, the freshman QB for the Tar Heels, impressed the shit out of me. Howell is great at reading blitzes and throwing where only his player can get it. The video below shows (Javonte Williams mainly) Howell recognizing the blitz and dumping down to his RB. He makes it look simple. Virginia Tech lacks playmakers on offense. UNC has Dazz Newsome and Javonte Williams. UNC wins the turnover battle and gets more big plays on the road. Also, Storm Duck is starting at DB for UNC cause of injuries. Gotta go with the team that has Storm Duck. What a fantastic name.

Penn State -9.5 at -110 for 4 units. This Penn State team has about 4 more playmakers on offense than Michigan does. Noah Cain, Devyn Ford, and KJ Hamler are all studs. I write about KJ Hamler almost every week, I love his speed and how he plays bigger than his size. Sean Clifford struggled a little bit last week at QB for the Nittany Lions, but it was against a great Iowa defense. I have watched Michigan play twice this year and have been unimpressed both times. They do not have the running game or defensive front 7 that could dominate like they had in past years. Penn State wins the battle in the trenches and gets more big plays. I would not be shocked if Penn State blew Michigan out like Wisconsin did.

Florida -5 at -115 for 2 units. Yeah South Carolina had a great win in double-overtime against Georgia.. but they won’t sneak up on Florida. The Gators have more playmakers, a better QB, and a better defense. They should be favored by 10.

Ohio State -27.5 at -110 for 2 units. I bet on the Buckeyes to cover similar spreads against Indiana and Nebraska. They covered both times. I don’t think Northwestern are too different from those teams. Ohio State is going to drop at least 38 points. Can Northwestern drop 14 or more? I think not. Justin Fields might be the best QB in Ohio. Sorry Andy Dalton, Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Lindley, and Ryan Finley.

 

Thursday Night Football – Chiefs at Broncos Preview

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

21-27 on the NFL this season down 5.92 units

Chiefs -3 at -130 for 5 units. Chiefs have lost two in a row. Broncos have won two in a row. The Texans ran for 192 yards against KC last week. The Colts ran for 182 yards the week before against KC. Crazy I know but when Mahomes doesn’t have the ball, he can’t throw the ball. The Chiefs will score enough early to make it so the Broncos can’t play that style of football. Tyreek Hill is officially back. Mahomes has a little Kirk Cousins-syndrome and is 2-5 in primetime. He is 15-1 in all other games. Those two numbers will equal out starting tonight.

I am not betting on Joe Flacco. Kansas City have covered 6 of the past 7 times against the Broncos. Denver is one of the worst teams in the league at converting 3rd downs. The Texans and Colts beat the Chiefs with solid QB play and a great running attack. I doubt the Broncos can get those two things working as well as those two teams did. Mahomes and the offense do enough to make up for the Chiefs’ defensive deficiencies.

Chiefs/Broncos over 48 at -120 for 3 units. A hedge against my -3 of sorts. If the Broncos do cover, they will have to break 25 points for the first time in the last 15 games. I see a 31-21 type game here. I don’t trust the defense of either team enough to play the under, so I am hitting the over.