20-12-1 on tennis down 0.13 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Nadal -6 at +103 for 2 units. Fognini can beat anyone if he is on his game and is one of the few players that has bested Nadal multiple times on clay. Fognini is 2-5 in his career vs Nadal on clay. Nadal looked great in his second set against Shapovalov and I expect that to carry over. Fognini may get frustrated here if he gets broken early and if that happens this will cover easy. Nadal has not moved past this stage here in Rome in the past 3 seasons. He knows this and he will get passed it today. Fognini can beat anyone on his day, but I expect Nadal to be dialed in.
Pablo Carreno Busta +2.5 for 1 unit at +105. Carreno Busta has lost to Cilic every time he has played him, but none of those have been on clay. The clay favors Carreno Busta slightly. This would be a larger play, but Carreno Busta played a 3 hour match yesterday. Cilic has not looked all that great since his marriage and I think Busta can sneak out a set at least in this one.
Djokovic at -165 for 5 units. Djokovic has won all his matches this week in straight sets. Djokovic has won 11 straight over Nishikori. The Joker always seems to get the points when he needs them against Nishikori. Kohlschreiber is just not as athletic as Nishikori, but Djokovic may be. If it is a forehand battle, Djokovic will win. Nishikori does not have a strong enough serve to beat Djokovic in my opinion.
Zverev at -195 for 6 units. Going to keep riding the hottest player on the tour at the moment. Zverev has now won 20 straight sets on clay. Goffin is just not on the same level even though he forced Del Potro to retire in the last round. Goffin won the last meeting between these two, but Goffin is 0-1 vs Zverev on clay.