Category: Tennis

53-26-3 on tennis up 20.15 units

Fabio Fognini at -193 for 5 units. The only question for Fabio and winning tennis matches is his motivation. Fognini wants his Italian-record-setting 4th ATP tour win on the season. Fabio has been consistent this season. He has competed in the Asian swing of the tour for more than a decade and this is his first season making two quarterfinals. This has been his best season by far on hard courts with 17 wins. It will be 18 after today. This is Marton Fucsovics first time in this tournament. He has already impressed, but he does not have the talent and athleticism Fognini has.

Kevin Anderson at -131 for 3 units. Anderson has won the past two meetings on hard courts, even though Richard Gasquet leads the H2H 6-4. Anderson has been in better form lately. Gasquet’s win over Krygios does not impress me much. Krygios played horribly. Anderson should be a -175 favorite so I will bite.

52-26-3 on tennis up 16.52 units

Kevin Anderson at -193 for 7 units. Anderson has made it past the second round in 13 of 14 tournaments this season. Tiafoe has already lost Anderson twice this season. Tiafoe got away from his losing ways by beating out of form Marterer. He is not in good enough form to beat Anderson.

51-25-2 on tennis up 17.08 units

Should have bet Verdasco straight up instead of games. I thought Monfils would wear down a little more in the second and third set. Verdasco still won the match, but actually won less games. My max play Fognini lost the first set and was down a break in the second set, but then he flipped the switch and won. Some people think Fognini is frustrating because he does not give it his all, but I find him to be the most entertaining player on the ATP tour. Berrettini covered easily due to his ability to save every break point and Leonardo Mayer’s terrible form. Sousa, surprisingly to me, got worked by Rublev.

Del Potro -3 for 2 units. Karen Khachanov got a tough draw here. Karen is 0-8 against the top 5 in his career. Del Potro has already beat him twice this season, covering 3 games both times. Not going to overthink this one.

Medvedev at -139 for 2 units. Daniil Medvedev had an impressive straight set win over the 4 seed, Diego Schwartzman, in the last round. Martin Klizan and Medvedev have had impressive hardcourt season so far. Klizan is 13-4 and Medvedev is 9-3 on the hardcourt. Klizan has a high ceiling, but he is going to have to play a near perfect game to win here. I like Daniil at these odds.

Berrettini at +111 for 2 units. Matteo Berrettini is in better form than Kyle Edmund; however, both players are having their most impressive years to date. Berrettini is having a much better season on hard courts. Edmund is just 11-9 on hard courts this season. Matteo has made to the round of 16 in his past two tournaments and will want to get over the hump here. Edmund won the only previous meeting, but that was on clay when Matteo was still a teenager.

49-23-2 on tennis up 15.75 units

Berrettini -3 for 3 units. Matteo Berrettini came back after going down a set to beat Leonardo Mayer last time they met. Mayer is in a lot worse form now than he was then. This is Leonardo’s first match since he retired at the US Open. Berrettini has the head to head history, the form, and the fitness.

Verdasco -.5 at -103 for 3 units. Monfils does not have the fitness or the form. Verdasco is 1-4 against Monfils in his career, but he won the most recent meeting. First time Gael has played here in Beijing. Verdasco got some flack for being rude to a ball boy last week. That should not affect him in this match though.

Sousa at +108 for 3 units. Sousa won the last meeting against Rublev and he is in better form. Rublev has been pretty bad since returning from his injury. Sousa made it to the round of 16 at the US Open and the semi-final at Chengdu recently. Going with the player with the better form, fitness, and H2H history.

Fognini at -227 for 10 units. Max play. Radu Albot has a tough draw here. Fognini is the far more talented player and he has been consistent this season. He made it to the final and lost last week. Albot has never won a match on the Asian part of the ATP tour. Fognini has not lost in the first round at this tournament since 2014. He will be comfortable here going for an Italian record 4th ATP tour title this season.

48-21-2 on tennis up 21.83

Fabio Fognini at -202 for 4 units. My favorite player on tour. Mr. Fognini. The Italian number 1 is going for his 4th title on the season. That would be an Italian record. Fognini has been so consistent this season compared to past years. Bernard Tomic has done well to make it this far and I believe in him (won money on him this tournament), just not against Fognini. Tomic does not have the results against this level of competition. Tomic said it himself, “Fabio is playing ridiculous.”

Pierre-Hugues Hebert at +106 for 3 units. Hebert’s serve will be too strong. Nishioka has already retired in 5 matches this season and has to be a little tired in making it to the final. This is Hebert’s second ever final and Yoshihito’s first. One of these two will get their maiden tour win. Hebert one the only other meeting in straight sets. A lot of people are saying Nishioka is the better player, but I don’t see it.

Hebert/Nishioka over 22.5 games for 1 unit. Even if this game only goes two sets, I could see it being a tie breaker both times. I see it going 3 sets though.

46-21-2 on tennis up 18.09 units

Got juiced last time out on tennis. Listening to Tha Carter V as I write this so all of these are going to win.

Fabio Fognini at -235 for 4 units. Matthew Ebden has an advantage in the sense that he has played more matches in Asia on the tour than Fognini.. that is where his advantages end. Fognini has seemed to turn a corner this season and is weirdly consistent. Fabio has made it this far twice in Asia and both times he lost to Nadal. He will want to beat his personal best performance. The only person that can motivate Fognini is – well his wife, but besides her – him. Ebden doesn’t have the talent if Fognini is 75% of himself.

Bernard Tomic at +102 for 2 units. Tomic meets the youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime in China today. This is Felix’s maiden quarterfinal appearance. Felix is a lucky loser in this tournament, while Tomic has fought well in 4 close matches. This match could honestly go either way, but I am siding with the experience in this one. Felix has an even brighter future regardless now that he has beat world number 23 Hyeon Chung in this tournament.

 

45-19-2 on tennis up 18.21 units

Got hurt last time out when Nadal got hurt in his match vs Del Potro. Back on the tennis game today.

Joao Sousa at -140 for 3 units. Sousa did well in the US Open losing to the eventual champion Djokovic in the round of 16. Pospisil has been playing better of late, but Sousa still leads the H2H series 3-0. I just think these players are in similar form, but Sousa is the better player so I will take him at these decent odds.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas at -172 for 3 units. Viktor Troicki is in poor form. Ramos-Vinolas has won the last two H2H meetings. Troicki got his first win since May due to his opponent retiring. Just a big gap in form here.

Tsitsipas at -195 for 4 units. 12 months ago Pierre Hughes Herbert would have been the favorite in this match, but Stefanos has come a long way and is one of my favorite players on tour now. Herbert lost in straight sets in his last tournament, but has already beat No. 53 Dusan Lajovic in this first round of this one. Tsitsipas game has improved so much this season and he will want a win here to improve his ranking and on his poor performance in the Asian swing last season. Herbert has a big serve, but Tsitsipas has the ability to break him enough times to win this match.

45-18-2 on tennis up 24.21 units

Lost a little bit last time out. I have some good hunches on these semi finals though..

Nadal at -150 for 6 units. Sending it today. The key to this match is Del Potro’s serve vs Nadal’s return game. Del Potro is going to have to have the precision and accuracy he has not yet shown this tournament to move the Spaniard around. Del Potro will need to work his inside-out forehand well if he wants to win. Nadal has a strong forehand (obviously) so they both will try to get to the others backhand. I just see Nadal having the return and enough baseline rally winners to move on to the final here.

44-16-2 on tennis up 30.61 units

Went up 14.82 units on Wimbledon

4-2 and up 3.97 units on the US Open

Fognini at -215 for 5 units. John Millman had an easy first round draw and will have to step it up if he wants to beat Fognini. Consistency has always been a problem for Fognini, but he seems to have figured it out a little bit this year as he already has more wins than last season.

Schwartzman at -555 for 4 units. I love betting on Schwartzman because you know what you are going to get. He is going to force long rallies and tire out his opponent on most days. This line is most likely a little too high, but I will bite.

Kohlschreiber/Ebden over 38 for 2 units. I looked at -4 for Kohlschreiber for a while, but I think I am going to pull the trigger on the over. Both their first round matchups went over and I could see some 6-4 sets. Kohlschreiber is nothing if not consistent so I expect a tight match here.

42-14-2 on tennis up 29.71 units

Went up 14.82 units on Wimbledon

2-0 and up 3.07 units on the US Open

Schwartzman -7 for 3 units. Diego Schwartzman has beat Delbonis the last 3 times they have met. All those matches have been on clay and I think Diego may have a bigger advantage on these hard courts. Schwartzman made it to the quarter finals here last year. Delbonis has not played a competitive hard court match since losing to Federer in March. I like this spot.

Fognini -6 for 2 units. Fognini is my favorite player on tour for a lot of reasons. The usual inconsistent Fognini that doesn’t take shit from anybody (not even the chair), has been surprisingly consistent this season. Fabio Fognini has not lost an opening match in a grand slam this season. Michael Mmoh got the wild card for the second time in his career at the US Open, but he just doesn’t have the talent or experience that Fognini will display today.

Troicki +6.5 for 2 units. Sandgren is not in his best form, while Troicki has no fitness of late. Makes it tough to pick a winner so I am going with the underdog. Troicki is the better player when both are at full strength.

Troicki/Sandgren over 35 for 2 units. I think Troicki will win one of the first two sets then fatigue will set in. I could see this going 4 sets and Sandgren pulling it out, but whoever wins, it will be a competitive match.