Sportsologists

If you missed the EFL Carabao Cup, don’t feel too bad for missing the first 2 hours. It got real exciting after that though. Chelsea’s manager Sarri tried to take off Kepa Arrizabalaga right before Pks. Kepa was simply like nah fam I’m good. Willy Caballero was the keeper Sarri wanted to come on for penalties. Caballero used to play for Manchester City, so he knows some of their penalty tendencies presumably. Also, Caballero saved penalties for City to win this very tournament in 2016. Kepa is one of the most expensive keepers in the World. Keepers of his quality don’t grow on trees, but I have never seen a player just refuse a manager. Kepa didn’t save this pk after refusing to go off… Aguero knows he got lucky. Manchester City win the trophy. I was actually cheering for the underdog Chelsea in this one… Oh Chelsea also have an incoming transfer ban on the way for “international transfer of minors”. Fun times at Chelsea.

Onto today’s match:

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-22-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 12.56 units

Red Bull Leipzig at -123 for 5 units. Leipzig’s defense is too good for Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim scored 3 goals in the last 15 minutes against Dortmund. Leipzig are well-equipped to defend against Hoffenheim’s long balls and crosses that haunted Dortmund. Hoffenheim do score a large portion of their goals off of those type of plays. Leipzig have won 4 in a row (3 clean sheets in that span). Leipzig have won 7 games at home this Bundesliga season, scoring first in all them janks. Poulsen, Werner, and Sabitzer have 26 of Leipzig’s 41 goals on the season. Poulsen has scored twice in each of the last 4 Bundesliga games he scored in. Hoffenheim are a solid away team, but they just don’t matchup well with Leipzig.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.59 units

Not losing 3 days in a row. I won’t have it. All 3 of these teams should be more heavily favored IMO.

Frankfurt -1 at +189 for 3 units.

Frankfurt +0 at -212 for 5 units. Frankfurt have drawn 5 matches in a row against solid competition. Frankfurt were up a man almost all of last game against Shakthar and only pulled out the draw. Frankfurt did give up a pk. The game will play out differently in Germany. Luke Jovic and Sebastien Haller should do enough to secure the win for Frankfurt. I like the -1 because if Frankfurt gets up, Shakhtar will send more men forward, leading to a possible 2 or 3 goal win for the Germans.

Real Betis at -169 for 6 units. Betis dominated the first leg away, but only tied the game 3-3. Rennes looked poor in their only game since then. Betis is the better team and that should show up in Sevilla tonight. Giovani Lo Celso has 11 goals this season for Betis and the “Mexican Messi” Lainez has been coming into form.

Bayern Leverkusen at -234 for 5 units. Leverkusen have only lost 3 matches since the beginning of December. ‘Die Werkself’ are in great attacking form. Krasnodar have lost the last 3 times they have traveled to Germany. Havertz, Wendell, Brandt, Volland, and Bailey will be too much offense for Krasnodar.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 1.41 units

Lazio/Sevilla over 2.5 at -115 for 6 units. Sevilla have never lost a two-legged UEFA affair when they won the first leg away. Lazio have to score here if they want to move on after losing at home 1-0 last week. Ciro Immobile should be healthy enough to play in this one. Immobile had a few goals in his short stint for Sevilla back in 15/16. Lazio are banged up, but they have to attack in this one. Sevilla are excellent at counter-attacking. Wober and Banega are out due to card accumulation for Sevilla, but that should only help the over. This should be an open game.

Juventus +0.5 at -225 for 5 units. The over/under is set at 1.5. That number is so low they are daring us to take the over. I just don’t bet against Ronaldo in the Champions League. It is that simple for me.

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

25-19-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 1.04 units

Bayern Munich +0.5 at -124 for 8 units. Liverpool have been declining in form over the past month, which is understandable when you consider the high level they were playing at to start the season. Bayern started this season out slow, but they have been picking it up over the past 3 months. Liverpool has wins against Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth this year. They have lost or drawn against Man City, Wolves, Leicester, and West Ham. Bayern have lost to only Leverkusen and Dortmund since October.

Lewandowski is the top scorer in this competition with 8 goals. Van Dijk is out due to yellow card accumulation. Robert Lewandowski should be able to find some space without one of the best defenders in the World playing. Lovren is out too, which means Fabinho may have to step up defensively. I worry about Bayern at the back too. Salah and Mane are too nice, but Lewandowski on Fabinho is the biggest mismatch. I will side with the team with the biggest advantage and that is in better form to tie or win.

Barcelona at -132 for 3 units. Lyon and Barcelona were unbeaten in the group stages. Lyon has won games against Man City and PSG this season. They are no slouches. No Nabil Fekir in the lineup for Lyon sadly. Suarez should be back in the lineup for Barca. Messi is still Messi. If Lyon was at full-strength, I would prolly stay away, but Barca has the attacking advantage and the experience to see this one through.