Basketball

College Basketball – Virginia at North Carolina

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

18-17-1 this season up 11.38 units

Virginia -1 at -108 for 4 units. North Carolina is on a solid win streak, but they have not played the best ACC schools during that streak. Miami, VT, and NC State have been stumbling of late. Coby White is going to have play a great game if UNC wants to win. That is a tall task for a freshman against UVA’s great defense.

UVA has to slow the game down and not turn the ball over. Sounds easy, but it is hard vs the Tar Heels. De’Andre Hunter is a tough guard for any team that doesn’t have Zion Williamson. Hunter will have a solid game. Virginia’s 3-point defense will be a key also. If UVA wasn’t coming off a tough loss to Duke 48 hours ago they would be more heavily favored. The step up in competition, coupled with UVA’s ability to slow the game down effectively, make life difficult for UNC tonight.

MMA

UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Preview – Lando Vannata Gets Back to Winning

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6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

6-1 in 2019 up 8.52 units

Lot of plays on heavy favorites tonight. I usually like betting underdogs with value in the UFC, but this seems like an “easy” card to read for the favorites. Not going to overthink it.

Montana De La Rosa at -243 for 3 units. The Fort Worth native, Montana De La Rosa, has won her last 3 fights all by submissions. Her opponent, Nadia “187” Kassem has only 1 UFC win in her career and it was an unanimous decision against the struggling Alex Chambers. Not saying Alex Chambers is struggling to take away from Kassem, just a fact. De La Rosa’s superior experience, ground game, and grappling get her the win.

Lando Vannata at -346 for 10 units. First of all his name is Lando. That’s a plus from the start, shoutout Donald Glover. Vannata is a purple belt in Jiu Jitsu and is trained by Greg Jackson. Jackson has trained Bones Jones, BJ Penn, Holly Holm, and many others. He’s legit. Lando’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance and he drew two and lost two of those 4 fights. He’s hungry for a win. Marcos Mariano is making his lightweight debut tonight, partly because he is Anderson Silva’s friend. ”Groovy” Vannatta is an exciting fighter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets performance of the night.

Vannata/Rosa under 1.5 rounds for 2 units. If Vannata wins (I think he will), it will most likely be by a TKO or submission. I expect the more experienced Vannata to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses early.

Robert Whittaker at -229 for 4 units. Whittaker is a Black belt in Hapkido,
a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hapkido is a badass form of self defense that involves locking people’s joints. The guy is a damn savage. His nickname is “the Reaper” for Christ’s sake. Whittaker hasn’t lost a fight since February of 2014. Kelvin Gastelum does have the small Jiu-Jitsu advantage, but that is where it ends for me. Kelvin doesn’t have the length, experience, or takedown defense to keep up with Whittaker IMO. Gastelum won the Ultimate Fighter 17, but he doesn’t have much of a chance tonight.

 

Basketball

21 of the Top 25 Teams Play on this Massive College Saturday

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

14-16-1 this season up 0.04 units

Let me start of by saying the Harvard/Columbia triple overtime game last night was awesome. Columbia made a 3 as time expired to send it to overtime. Then Bryce Aiken did a Marcus Paige impression and drilled a double pump 3 to go the second overtime. Aiken finished with a career-high 44 points and a bloody knee. The Ivy league does the “cool” back 2 back thing so both teams play again today. Wild.

Clemson -2 for 5 units. VT is down to a 6 man team. They are running on fumes. Clemson blows them out in the second half. Sorry Hokies.

St. Bonaventure +2.5 for 1 unit. VCU struggles on the road. De’Riante Jenkins seemed to turn it up another level for VCU in the second half of their game vs GW on Wednesday. Jenkins is the best recruit VCU ever signed, so it is nice to see him start stepping up. This game can go either way, take the points.

Villanova +2 for 2 units. Markus Howard for Marquette and Phil Booth for Nova are the two leading candidates for the 2020 election. Nah just playing. It’s Big East player of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised at this rate if anybody runs for President. Marquette lost by 1 to St. Johns last time out. Howard played poorly in that one. Villanova know how to win close games and are the hotter team.

Gonzaga -17 for 3 units. I’m 3-1 on Gonzaga bets this year. St. Mary’s doesn’t have the athleticism they have had in past years. Gonzaga’s depth of talent will show up in the second half as they pull away for the 21 point win.

Florida State -2 for 3 units. Mfiondu Kabengele, Terance Mann, and Phil Cofer will do enough at home to beat Louisville. FSU has won 4 in a row in the ACC, that continues today.

Tennis

ATP Open Sud de France – Semifinals

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-19 on tennis in 2019 down 4.21 units

Tomas Berdych at -180 for 6 units. Well, Berdych gave up a set and a break advantage to blow my -3 bet on him yesterday. He is in such good form though, I just can’t quit him. Berdych just lost his concentration at some weird times. He won’t make the same mistakes today. Pierre Hughes Herbert lost to Berdych 6-2, 6-4 when they met in Doha a few weeks ago. Berdych is still unbeaten in this tournament in his career (2nd appearance). He should be favored by at least -210. The line will move in that direction.

Soccer

Soccer Saturday – Ole Gunnar Solskjær Gets Another Win, Liverpool Retakes 1st Place, The Madrid Derby Takes Place, and Dortmund Keeps Dominating Germany

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

10-11-4 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.04 units

Pushed my last 3 big soccer plays. Gotta turn it around. Big card today.

Manchester United at -166 for 7 units. Fulham didn’t have a shot on target in their last game against Crystal Palace. Fulham have conceded 2 or more goals in their last 5 premier league matches. Manchester United haven’t lost since Ole Gunnar Solskjær was appointed caretaker. In Rashford I trust.

West Ham/Crystal Palace over 2 at -211 for 3 units. Felipe Anderson and Zaha will see that this pushes at the very least. If Anderson keeps playing like he has this calendar year, he will be on the Brazilian national team soon…

Real Madrid/Atletico Madrid over 2 at -176 for 3 units. Benzema has 6 goals and an assists in his last 6 matches. Griezmann is the same scoring machine this season that he has been for the past few years. Only 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two has gone over this number, but I like this spot today. If Marcelo starts, I like this bet even more. Marcelo’s offense doesn’t make up for his lack of effort on defense anymore. There have been over 6 yellow cards a game in the last 6 meeting between these two. That kind of physical game means free-kicks and a pk hopefully. I want to bet on Real, but I don’t like Ronaldo and he used to play for them so I am going with the over.

Eintracht Frankfurt +1 at -190 for 4 units. I know I’m down a lot in soccer, which my bank account and followers hate, but Leipzig and Frankfurt have been keeping me afloat. Now they play each other. Leipzig have not beat Frankfurt by 2 or more since January of 2017. Luka Jovic leads the Bundesliga with 14 goals for Frankfurt. If Luke Jovic doesn’t play. Stay away. 

Dortmund at -137 for 2 units. Dortmund haven’t lost in their last 10 home games. Hoffenheim hasn’t beat a top team in a while either. Dortmund can push their lead over Bayern to 10 points with a win.

Parlay all these plus PSG and Liverpool for 1.1 units to win 15.63 units. Liverpool and PSG are both favored by 2 goals. They won’t be the ones to lose this parlay. Feeling lucky. It’s not called gambling for nothing.

Photo Source: Getty Images 

Other Sports

Snooker World Grand Prix Quarterfinals

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9-4 in snooker in 2018 up 6.58 units

1-0 in 2019 up 2.02 units 

Kyren Wilson at -126 for 2 units. Wilson has won his last 7 matches. Wilson has won his last 4 matches against Barry Hawkins, who he faces today. Wilson is cueing the ball real well. He mopped the floor with World #12 Stuart Bingham in the last round. Send it.  #STILLONMYSNOOKERSHIT #SNOOKER #IBARELYEVENKNOWHER

Tennis

ATP Open Sud de France and ATP Sofia Quarterfinals

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-16 on tennis in 2019 up 8.79 units

Roberto Bautista-Agut -3 at -157 for 4 units. Marton Fucsovics struggled against debutant Yannick Maden. I thought Fucsovics would handle him easily, but he gave away a set and a break lead to barely win. The Hungarian #1 only converted 4 out of 24 break points. Not good. Bautista-Agut won this tournament in 2016 and is coming off a career best quarterfinal result at a grand slam (the Australian Open). This is the first meeting between the two, but Bautista-Agut is in better form, has a great history here, and is the more experienced player.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -150 for 4 units. Gael Monfils makes for a fun opponent for the twenty-year-old Greek. They played a close 2-1 match in Shanghai last season with Stefanos gutting out the win. Stefanos has already beat Roger Federer this season on his way to a semifinal berth at the Australian Open. Monfils is also in-form. Gael has won 13 of his last 15 hardcourt matches. Gael’s athleticism will not be enough to overcome poor shot selection and an inconsistent backhand against an opponent of this caliber. If Stefanos gets stuck in baseline rallies, he could be in trouble… but he knows this and will move forward well. Monfils can certainly win this match, but the Greek youngster provides solid value again today.

Tomas Berdych -3 at -118 for 5 units. Berdych is now 6-0 in his career at this tournament. The Czech was the runner-up at Doha and made the round of 16 at the AO. Great results already this season for Berdych. This will be Filip Krajinovic’s 5th match in 7 days on the hardcourts. Krajinovic is a little fatigued, has less experience, is in worse form, and has a disadvantage on this surface. Berdych should be favored by more.

Other Sports

Snooker World Grand Prix Quarterfinals

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9-4 in snooker in 2018 up 6.58 units

0-0 in 2019

Mark Selby at -293 for 6 units. Selby lost to Noppon Saengkham 5 frames to 4 the last time they played, but he won the 5 previous meetings. The more talented, experienced player gets revenge. #BACKONMYSNOOKERSHIT #SNOOKER #IBARELYEVENKNOWHER

Tennis

ATP Open Sud de France and ATP Sofia

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

19-16 on tennis in 2019 up 3.77 units

Was down a lot, but got it all back and more on the Australian Open. I have been watching both of these tournaments and feel strongly enough to make plays on them now. I know I know, all favorites doesn’t seem sharp, but I am not going to bet on an underdog I don’t like because I bet on 4 other favorites that day.

Marton Fucsovics at -278 for 3 units. Yannick Maden actually beat Fucsovics the last time they met, but that was on clay. Maden could win this match, but I think the odds should be closer to -400 for the Hungarian #1.

Daniil Medvedev at -429 for 3 units. Robin Haase won the last meeting, but that was on clay. Medvedev has the advantage on the hardcourt. The Russian #2 is in the best form of his career and I expect that to show here. Haase has lost to everyone he should have this season so far. I like predictable players. Don’t prove me wrong for the first time all season Robin!

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -257 for 3 units. Just betting on him because of his recent instagram post. Does Stefanos know there is more to life than being really really really ridiculously good looking?

Pierre-Hugues Herbert at -269 for 3 units. Ilya Ivashka doesn’t have the serve to overpower Herbert like Raonic and Berdych did in their matchups with the Frenchman. I’m taking the Northern Frenchman to win in Southern France today.

Denis Shapovalov at -316 for 3 units. Marcel Granollers-Pujol didn’t have a break point against Ivo Karlovic in the last round, but he still beat the 37-year-old. Shapovalov will make it even more difficult for Granollers to find a break point. The difference is, Shapovalov is a better returner than Karlovic at this point in their careers. The Canadian has won every match he should have this season and I expect more of the same here.

 

Soccer

Soccer Thursday – Empoli at Lazio

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

10-11-3 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.04 units

Lazio -1 at -179 for 7 units. Empoli are in the worst form in Serie A. Lazio are in 7th place in the standings, but are 1 point away from jumping into the top 4. Lazio have never lost to Empoli at home (8 wins, 2 draws). Lazio have given up only 25 goals so far this season. Empoli have given up the most goals in the league at 44 goals conceded. Ciro Immobile should score in this one. Empoli haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 18 league games. Lazio win 3-0 or 3-1 at home.