Basketball

College Basketball Parlay – March Madness is Only 10 Days Away!

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

24-22-1 this season up 5.29 units

Old Dominion/Baylor/Northern Kentucky/NC State/Dayton Parlay at +134 for 3 units. Theme: Home teams that have to win for the NCAA tournament.

Dayton are 13-16 ATS this season. The money line is juicy, but they won’t lose to La Salle at home. Dayton can’t lose this game if they want a shot at an at-large bid.

NC State has a better of chance of making the tournament than Dayton does, but I wouldn’t say they are safe quite yet. The Wolfpack have an “easy” game against a bad road team in Georgia Tech. If State wins this one, they are in the tournament. Like the spot.

Horizon League Championship quarterfinal game here between Northern Kentucky and Detroit Mercy. Detroit has been bad away from home this season and I expect that to continue tonight. Detroit has a great freshman guard, Antoine Davis, who averages 26 points a game, but they lack the defense to beat Norther Kentucky.

Baylor is another home team that can secure a spot in the NCAA tournament with a win tonight. Oklahoma State struggle on the road. If Baylor loses this one, they go from near-lock for the NCAA to firmly on the bubble. They take care of business in Waco (shoutout Chip and Jo). I want to take Baylor -8.5 because OK State is 11-18 ATS this season, but they played great vs Texas Tech on the road, so I will play it safe.

I love this Old Dominion team. Them and Gonzaga have kept me afloat this season. Southern Miss lost by 18 to ODU in Norfolk already this season. Southern Miss has lost 2 in a row. ODU has won 7 in a row. B.J. Stith, Carver, and Caver are a deadly guard trio for the Monarchs. Going back to the honey hole here.

Basketball

Texas/Texas Tech and UVA/Syracuse Previews

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

23-22-1 this season up 2.65 units

Texas Tech/Virginia Parlay risking 4 units to win 2.64 units. Jarrett Culver and the Texas Tech defense will be too much for Texas. The Longhorns lost to the Red Raiders by 6 at home. I could see a double digit loss here for Shaka Smart’s team. The former VCU coach may not be at Texas for too much longer.

Syracuse averages under 56 points a game against Tony Bennett’s UVA. Kyle Guy made 5 3s again over the weekend. The Cavaliers have held opponents to under 50 points 10 times this season. Virginia will make enough shots to stretch the zone. The Orange will have to limit turnovers and make tough shots if they want to win tonight. Both teams need a win here for.. UVA for the regular season ACC title and Syracuse for a better NCAA seed.

Jim Boeheim is only two weeks removed from his tragic accident in hitting 51-year-old Jorge Jimenez with his car and killing him. Boeheim has sent his “deepest sympathies to the Jimenez family.” Wild and sad story.

MMA

UFC 235 Predictions – Jon “Bones” Jones Vs. Anthony “Lionheart” Smith

Leave a comment

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

12-3-1 in 2019 up 17.79 units

I’ve got a serious UFC problem. TOO MUCH WINNING. The Champ is here.

Polyana Viana at -260 for 4 units. Hannah Cifers is from Oxford, North Carolina. I am from North Carolina, so I like her, but Viana is Brazilian and you always go with the Brazilian. Nah, but really, a guy tried to jump Viana while she was waited for an uber. This is what happened to that guy. Not going to lie, I’m throwing training/experience/record vs similar fighters/grappling advantage and other factors out the window. She fucked that guy up. That’s badass and enough for me to side with her in this one.

Alejandro Perez at +175 for 3 units. Perez hasn’t lost since June 2015. Cody Stamann is a 5-foot-7 beast monster, but I like the value in the experienced Perez.

Zabit Magomedsharipov at -254 for 5 units. ZaBeast is 16-1. Zabit has some of the best striking in the UFC. Sorry Jeremy Stephens. You ain’t winning this one. Here is their intense beef. 

Image result for zabit magomedsharipov gif

Tyron Woodley at -170 for 2 units. Kamaru Usman is a scary man. His nickname is the Nigerian Nightmare. Usman is the “value” play, but I’ll take the guy that has already defended his title 4 times.

Image result for woodley till gif

Jon Jones/Anthony Smith over 1.5 rounds at -159 for 4 units. I either get an awesome Jon Jones knockout in the first or I win my bet. Win/Win situation.

 

Tennis

Dubai Tennis Championships Final – Stefanos Tsitsipas Vs. Roger Federer

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-24 on tennis in 2019 down 22.19 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas +3 at -120 for 6 units. Built up a huge bankroll on tennis last season, but this season has been rough so far. Still early in the year. Not going to run and hide cause I’ve lost a few. The hungry dog runs faster.

Roger Federer can join Jimmy Connors if he wins his 100th ATP title here. Insane. Tsitsipas beat Federer 3-1 at the Australian Open already this year. Stefanos went on to lose to Djokovic and cry. Not making fun of him for crying, seeing that passion is good. Just a fact, he cried. The thing is, I would never cry after playing Djokovic because there is no way in hell I could even get a game off of him. So, him crying, means he thinks he can beat the Joker. I like the confidence in the young Greek.

Federer beat Coric easily in the Semis. Coric had won the two meetings against Federer before this recent match, but Roger had had enough. Coric played poorly and Roger took advantage. Tsitsipas beat the in-form Monfils. I rate Monfils as a top 10 player right now (my ratings are way more important than the ATP system), so that win is impressive.

Tsitsipas gave Federer a lot of different looks while coming to the net over 60 times during their AO meeting. Federer will be more prepared for that this time around, which is part of the reason I am not betting money line here. Tsitsipas is going to attack Federer’s backhand on his serve. This forces Federer to slice and allows Stefanos to come forward. Federer has to step up his return game to a level I haven’t seen this year. Obviously Federer can step up, but Stefanos will make it difficult. I want to make this a massive play, but Tsitsipas has played a lot of tennis over the past 15 days with over 3,000 miles of travel in between. Mental and physical fatigue are going to be a factor for the Greek in this one, but Tsitsipas will win at least a set.

Soccer

“Too Much Soccer” – Future

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

30-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.75 units

AC Milan at -194 for 5 units. Milan is on an 8 match unbeaten run. Milan beat Sassuolo 4-1 the last time they met. That was before Krzysztof Piątek arrived in Milan. Krzysztof has 7 goals in 7 appearances for AC Milan. The ‘Rossoneri’ have only lost twice at home all season. Castillejo, Kessie, Suso, and others are finding more pace since the addition of Piątek. Milan stay hot at home.

Bayern Leverkusen at -222 for 3 units. Leverkusen have been playing great football of late, but the results just haven’t quite been there. They lost on away goals to Krasnodar in the Europa League and to Dortmund in the league 3-2, which has exemplified this problem with not getting the result. Now that they are bounced from Europa, they can focus on getting top 5. They are two points out of that Europa Group spot as of writing. Volland, Bailey, Brandt, and Havertz are all fun to watch for Leverkusen. Freiburg have not lost in over 2/3rds of the games that they are an underdog in… Going against that stat here.

Sevilla at -103 for 3 units. Huesca and Sevilla are not on the same level. Sevilla > Huesca. The reason this line is so “good” is well because, even though it pains me to say as a Sevillista, Sevilla sucks on the road. Truth hurts. Sevilla have to win these games if they want to make the Champions League spots. Sevilla could just win the Europa again, but beating Huesca seems like the simpler task. Andre Silva’s 35-million-Euro-buy-option was declined by Sevilla for this summer and he will return to AC Milan. Piątek makes that awkward for him. Silva will 100% end his cold streak and score here if Pablo Machin plays him now that Sevilla has moved on.

Monaco at +137 for 2 units. Monaco are hot. New year, New Club.

Manchester United/Manchester City Parlay at -133 for 2 units. Lingard, Mata, and Herrera all have thigh injuries for United, but they still have a more talented squad than Southampton. 6 of the 8 league goals Paul Pogba has scored since Ole Gunnar Solskjær came along, have been at Old Trafford. United have only lost to PSG since Ole Gunnar was appointed in December. Southampton lack the defense to stop United’s options. City did not impress me in their last game against West Ham, although if Silva buries his relatively easy chance in the 3rd minute, that game is completely different. Vegas has them favored by a lot though so I will trust Vegas on this one. Also, Arsenal just dropped la bomba de cinco on Bournemouth. City will score.

Basketball

College Basketball Thursday Preview – Lot of Home Underdogs

Leave a comment

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

20-21-1 this season down 2.66 units

61 college basketball games tonight and 25 of them feature home underdogs. Lot of spots to take advantage of. Here are my favorites:

Old Dominion/Murray State Parlay at +115 for 3 units. Going against two home dogs here. ODU has two great guards in B.J. Stith and Ahmad Carver. Texas San Antonio has lost two games in a row. Old Dominion has won 6 in a row. A win would clinch first place in C-USA, giving ODU its first regular-season league title since 2010. The Monarchs gave up a 17-point lead in the final 4 minutes of the game in a loss to UTSA earlier this season. They won’t let that happen again.

If you haven’t seen Ja Morant play this season. He is super-athletic. I like Ja because he has a personality unlike a lot of college basketball players. I don’t think it is the players fault a lot of the time… growing up in an age where everything you do wrong is on the internet, sometimes it is better to be vanilla until you get paid. Anyway, there is a reason he is going to be a top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Morant is putting up 24.4 points, 10.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds a game. Murray State has won 7 in a row. They are 14-2 in conference. Morehead State is 7-9 in conference play. Morehead State has not beat a team the caliber of Murray State in a while and they won’t tonight.

UAB +1 for 2 units.

Towson +2.5 for 2 units. Two home dogs here. William & Mary have won 3 in a row. Now the Tribe travel to Towson. 2 of those 3 William and Mary wins were against bottom of the CAA teams (Elon and UNCW). Towson has played well at home this season. Value here. Plus, the ESPN matchup predictor says Towson is the favorite and it has never been wrong. UAB just beat Western Kentucky by 8 two games ago. Now they are home and an underdog? I’ll bite.

Gonzaga -22 for 2 units. Pacific can’t score. That is all.

 

Hockey

Hockey Szn is Back

Leave a comment

45-46-6 on Hockey last season and went up 10.46 units

14-12 on Hockey this season down 0.56 units. 

Shakhtar Soligorsk -3 at -130 for 4 units. Belarus Hockey today. Soligorsk have won their last 6 over Belarus U20 by 3 or more. More of the same today. That is all.

Soccer

Copa Del Ray Semifinals – El Clásico – Barcelona at Real Madrid

Leave a comment

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

28-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 17.56 units

Barcelona at +142 for 7 units.

Barcelona to advance at -131 for 9 units. One team has Messi and one doesn’t. Real Madrid tied the first leg at Camp Nou 1-1, but Messi didn’t start. Messi started against Sevilla this past weekend… Here is a video of Messi’s highlights in that game. I’m convinced Tommy Wiseau, Messi, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are from different planets.

 

Speaking of form, Real Madrid are in solid form. They have won 11 and lost 3 this calendar year. Casemiro, Kroos, and Modric are still one of the best midfields in the World. There are a couple reasons I don’t like Madrid today: Ajax were able to press Real Madrid to death in the first half of their Champions League game. Ajax had nothing but an offsides goal and a strike that went off the post to show for it though. If Real are that sloppy and unable to play out of the back against Barca, buenas noches. Caravajal was especially poor in that game in defense. If Marcelo starts over Reguilon, Messi is going to feast. Secondly, Messi and Suarez found their form in their last game vs Sevilla. Suarez has been in a bit of a rut away from home (hasn’t scored in Champions league away since Obama was President), but that is why that late goal vs Sevilla was big for him. Vinicius Junior will have his moments, Benzema is clincal, and Varane/Ramos can thwart most attacks away; however, Barcelona’s ability to attack out-wide and Messi will see them through.

Messi Stats vs Madrid: 39 games 26 goals 14 assists

 

Tennis

Dubai Tennis Championships Round of 16

Leave a comment

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-22 on tennis in 2019 down 17.19 units

Nishikori/Hurkacz under 22 at -143 for 7 units. Hurkacz does have a strong serve, but Nishikori has a solid return game. Hubert Hurkacz is only a few months removed from his first ATP main draw win. He struggles against top competition and that was shown in his recent 6-4, 6-2 loss to Tsitsipas. Nishikori has made the quarterfinals in every tournament he has entered this year. Kei will be better at converting/defending break points. That will be the difference in this over/under.