Month: January 2018

Golf – 2018 Phoenix Open

This is one of my favorite tournaments to watch because the atmosphere is a little more raucous than most. The field is strong this year and Hideki Matsuyama is going for his 3rd straight win.. something only Arnold Palmer has done. All of these plays are for the whole tournament. The only drawback of this tournament is that if it goes to a playoff on Sunday, the Super Bowl will be on..

Ryan Palmer vs Charley Hoffman for 3 units at -105. Palmer is from Texas and is a good desert golf course player. He had the lead going into the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He ended up finishing second while Hoffman finished tied for 35th. Palmer’s wife had a cancer spell last year, but it seems he can now focus on golf again. His form is a lot better than Hoffman so I am taking him with the low juice.

Jordan Spieth vs Jon Rahm for 3 units at -110. Spieth has not been his normal putting self lately and that may be part of the reason for the low juice. Rahm got 29th last week at the Farmers and Spieth did not play in it. Spieth got 9th in this tournament last year and Rahm got 16th. I just think Spieth will hit a gear on Saturday and Sunday that Rahm will not be able to match.

Zach Johnson vs J.B. Holmes for 3 units at -130. Zach finished 12th in this tournament last year and Holmes finished 24th. Johnson is 3rd in scoring average on the season and has been playing solid golf. Holmes finished top 5 last week, but was not playing good golf before that. Johnson is just a far more consistent golfer and had a 66 on this course last year.

Webb Simpson vs Daniel Berger for 2 units at -135. Webb lost the playoff of this tournament last year after shooting a 64 on Sunday. Berger did not do bad himself finishing 7th. Webb has one of the best sand save percentages on the tour and that is an area where Berger has struggled this season. Webb also has a higher greens in regulation percentage than Berger. Berger has been playing well this year, but I like the North Carolina native Webb here.

Byeong-Hun An vs Tony Finau for 2 unit at +175. This line is so good because Byeong-Hun played in Dubai last week. An got 6th in this tournament last year, while Finau did not even make the cut. An is one of the best drivers on the tour, while Finau can drive it far, but not accurately. I just think An is better at courses of this type even with his tough travel schedule.

Scott Piercy vs Harris English for 1 unit at +120. English finished 6 strokes better than Piercy at this tournament last year. English also finished top 10 last week at the Farmers.

 

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NCAAB January 31st

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

21-16 on NCAAB in 2018 up 13.39 units

Thought UNC would turn it around against Clemson, but they played awful in the first half. The injury to Theo Pinson may have been the difference in the game. Unlucky injury break. After two losing days in a row, let’s get back to winning.

WVU -9 for 4 units. WVU was up big on Kentucky, but blew their lead (prolly because I bet them). In all seriousness, Kevin Knox went off for the Wildcats. West Virginia will not led a big lead slip away in this one. Iowa State has been blown out in their past two games and I expect more of the same here. ISU is only 6-10 against the spread on the year.

UVA -9 for 3 units. UVA has not lost a game at home all year. Louisville is actually playing better than a lot of people expected at 16-5. I think people are scared of high UVA spreads because of the way they play. I think they are far better than Louisville and will win this game by double digits. Louisville has not scored more than 60 against UVA since arriving to the ACC. Yes the Cardinals have a new coach, but they will realize how good UVA is by halftime.

Florida State -4 for 2 units. Florida State’s 3-point shooting will be too much for Wake Forest in this one. Wake Forest is 1-8 in conference play and has lost 7 games in a row. FSU is 13-5 against the spread this year and I still do not think they are getting the respect from Vegas after losing Dwayne Bacon and Jonathon Isaac to the NBA. Take the better team on the road.

Soccer January 31st

29-16-1 on soccer up 5.60 units

2-0 yesterday

Leicester City +0 for 2 units at +102

Leicester City ML for 1 unit at +190. Everton tied West Brom their last time out. Leicester lost to Everton 4-2 earlier in the year, but Everton still had the talents of Romelu Lukaku in the lineup at that time. Everton only has two goals in their last 5 premier league games. Stats like Everton scoring in all but 2 of their past 15 against Leicester City should be taken with a grain of salt, because their team is just not as good as it once was. Everton scores less and gives up more goals than Leicester City. I think the oddsmakers are putting too much value in the home field advantage in this one. Take the better team at good odds.

Manchester United +0.5 for 2 units at -162.

Manchester United ML for 1 unit at +213. Man U has only given up two goals in their last 5 games and now they get Alexis Sanchez in the lineup. Man U has one of the best away records in the league and the Spurs have the 6th best home record in the league. I just think Manchester is the better team. Tottenham has not beat a top squad in the league since they beat Liverpool on October 22nd.

Sevilla Leganes Draw for 2 units at +227.

Sevilla ML for 2 units at +127. Sevilla is historically not as good away from home, but they have actually won their last 2 away games. Leganes overachieved in beating Real Madrid in the last round. I expect a sort of come down from that high. Vincenzo Montella has made the Sevilla team better in my opinion, and I like that he is featuring N’Zonzi in the lineup. Sevilla beat Leganes away earlier this season with Nasri, Vazquez, and Sarabia scoring. Nasri just had his contract terminated by his Turkish club interestingly enough. A lot of people are betting Leganes in this one, but I am going with Sevilla.

 

 

Alex Smith Trade

The Redskins trade for Alex Smith. Congrats Redskins, you get an older Kirk Cousins for a cheaper price. The Skins are reportedly paying Smith 23.5 million a year. The franchise tag on Kirk would have been about 34 million (transition tag would have been 28 million) if they had chose to go that route. The Redskins gave up a 3rd round pick and Kendall Fuller in the deal. Fuller led the Redskins in interceptions last year and still has room for improvement. Fuller was also 4th on the team in tackles. He had 4 less tackles than Josh Norman.

Back to Alex Smith being an older Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins threw for 4093 yards in 2017 – Alex Smith threw for 4042. Kirk had 27 throwing Tds – Alex Smith had 26 throwing Tds. Smith should have a lot better numbers throwing to Hill and Kelce rather than Kirk throwing to Pryor and Vernon Davis.. Right!? Kirk is better than the Redskins think. Alex Smith does have a higher yards per attempt, but he had Tyreke Hill. Hill is so damn fast he throws up the peace sign on fools trying to cover him. Hey but Alex Smith has playoff experience!! He is 1-4 in the playoffs. I just do not see Smith moving the needle much. I would rather draft Lamar Jackson with the third round pick they traded and keep one of their best players in the secondary. I guess the question is.. Is a more experienced but similar quarterback along with about 8 million in cap room worth a 3rd round pick and a starting corner? (I do not think so).

Andy Reid has now given the Redskins an old Donovan McNabb and an old Alex Smith.

 

Blake Griffin Trade

Griffin signed a five-year 173 million dollar contract this past summer to stay with the Clippers. He refused to even visit the Nuggets because he was confident the Clippers wanted him, little did he know…. they did not really want him. Kendall Jenner will most likely break up with him now that he lives in Detroit. I feel bad for Blake. This is why Cavs fans that were mad at Lebron for leaving in 2018.. I mean 2010 – should wait to hate because franchises disregard players quicker than players disregard franchises (See Isaiah Thomas).

The Clippers received Avery Bradley (expiring contract), Boban Marjanovich, Tobias Harris, a first-round pick, and a 2019 second-round pick for Blake, Brice Johnson, and Willie Reed. The Clippers most likely realize that the Warriors will own the western conference for the next few years and they need to rebuild. A good start to the rebuild would be getting rid of Doc Rivers in my opinion, but Jerry West made the right move here. DeAndre Jordan was convinced to stay by J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul. All three of those players are gone now ironically. It is an interesting trade for the Pistons too. Detroit is 3 games out of the playoffs and maybe Blake will get them over the hump. I do not think he will get them to the playoffs because their guard play is lacking and they lost a near all-star in Tobias.

Snooker January 31st

1-1 in snooker down .17 units

Jimmy Robertson ML for 2 units at -110. Jimmy has beat Hamilton the past two times they played and has won 3 matches in a row. Hamilton struggled against a weak opponent his last time out needing all 11 frames to win. Robertson usually makes it past this round in the tournaments he plays. Best of luck.

Hockey January 31st

Finland Liiga.

Jyvaskyla ML (+184) and Jyvaskyla to tie (+309) both for two units. Only one of these needs to win for positive money. Jyvaskyla played yesterday so they could be winded, but Tappara has been bad in 2018. Jyvaskyla has been in great form over the past 5 games and have one of the best away records in the league. Jyvasklya has 3 top 10 scorers in the league, while Tappara does not have a top 20 scorer. Take the better team at plus odds.

Tennis January 31st

Diyas ML for 3 units. Diyas beat Niculescu 2-0 on a hardcourt in Cincinnati last year. Diyas just beat a decent player in Blinkova 2-0. Niculescu only won one game on her serve the last time these two played and I like Diyas’s breaking ability. I think Diyas must have a read or tip on her opponents serve, I like this spot.

Kozlova Kateryna ML for 3 units. Koslova beat Duan in Duan’s home country 2-0 last time they played on a hard court. Duan lost more games on her serve than she won in their most recent meeting. In that same meeting Kozlova held her serve well. I think Kateryna is going to have a strong 2018. Best of luck.

NBA January 30th

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

15-14 on NBA in 2018 down 7.18 units

Jazz Warriors over 217 for 5 units. Warriors scored 126 points in the first meeting between these two teams. This over under is low because the Jazz try to slow the game down, but that does not really work against the Warriors. Warriors over hit against the Celtics and I think it will hit here too. Steph has been hot lately and the Jazz defense has not been as good as it was last year.

Warriors ML for 4 units at -380. Heavy juice but they won’t lose to the Jazz.

 

 

NCAAB January 30th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

20-14-1 on NCAAB in 2018 up 16.47 units

Had a push last time out with Clemson winning by exactly 2. Lot of college basketball tonight and I like a lot of spots. Let’s get back to winning money.

North Carolina -1 for 3 units. Buying a half point here. UNC beat Clemson by 8 earlier in the season. UNC played horrible perimeter defense against North Carolina State and got out-hustled by Virginia Tech in their last two losses. Clemson has lost Donte Grantham and he was one of their few advantages against UNC. I think Roy and his boys will realize they need to play a lot better after losing to their rival from Raleigh. I just can’t see UNC losing 3 in a row. Joel Berry, Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, and Kenny Williams will do enough for UNC to win this one.

Rhode Island -9 for 2 units. Umass has lost 4 in a row and Rhode Island has won 12 in a row. Rhode Island has one of the more polarizing coaches in college basketball in Dan Hurley. Umass gives up more points than they score – that’s not good. Rhode Island has one of the better defenses in the A-10 and I think they run away with this one after their close win against Duquesne. The Minutemen have been struggling and that is not a good place to be against the best team in the league.

Auburn -4 for 2 units. Auburn is 14-5 against the spread this season, and I still do not think they are getting the respect from Vegas. Auburn just blew out a good LSU team, while Ole Miss lost to Texas. Auburn scores 8 more points a game than Ole Miss and has a better defense. Take the better team. Best of luck.